CARACAS, Venezuela (AP) — English phrases once bothered Venezuelan President Nicolas Maduro so much that he asked his State of the Union address audience to phase out words like skatepark and fashion.
But with the White House now pondering whether US troops should invade Venezuela, Maduro has embraced English, singing John Lennon imagery, advocating peace and dancing to a remix of his latest English catchphrase, “No War, Yes Peace.”
His change was seen as a sign of frustration by supporters of Venezuela’s political opposition, whose leaders have repeatedly told their supporters in Washington that the threat of military action would crack Maduro’s inner circle, after months of pressure have yet to result in an exodus or government change.
Loyalty vs Punishment
Behind this extent to power is a system that harshly punishes disloyal allies and allows loyal ministers, judges, military leaders and other officials to enrich themselves.
“The Bolivarian revolution has a remarkable potential: the ability to unite in the face of external pressure,” said Ronal Rodríguez, a researcher at the Venezuela Observatory at the Universidad del Rosario in Colombia, referring to the political movement known as Chavismo, the presidency that Maduro inherited from Hugo. “When pressure comes from abroad, they manage to unite, defend and protect themselves.”
The corruption networks blessed by Chávez and Maduro, based on the principle of loyalty-or-punishment, allow loyalists to get rich. The policy has angered previous attempts to oust Maduro and helped him and his close allies lift economic sanctions, receive a US presidential pardon and claim an electoral victory they had lost.
Rodriguez said prison and torture could be part of the punishment, which is usually harsher for those convicted of wrongdoing with military affiliations. The strategy has been crucial for authoritarian Maduro to keep the military under control, which allows the traffic of drugs, oil, wildlife and countless goods in exchange for coup-proof barracks.
“It has been a very effective tool because Chavismo has always been able to eliminate those actors who try to rise up at some point, and it has been able to expose corrupt practices from all kinds of actors,” Rodriguez said.
Army with Maduro
Venezuela’s political opposition, led by Nobel Peace Prize laureate María Corina Machado, was banking on the military’s support to oust Maduro when credible evidence showed it was losing the 2024 presidential election. But Defense Minister Vladimir Padrino López and other military leaders stood by Maduro, just as they did when a cadre of soldiers swore allegiance to Juan Guaido during a barracks uprising in 2019, the opposition leader recognized as Venezuela’s rightful leader by the first Trump administration.
Since returning to office, US President Donald Trump has stepped up pressure on Maduro and his allies, doubling the reward to $50 million for information leading to his arrest on drug terrorism charges. The 2020 indictment accuses Maduro of leading the Cartel de los Soules, which the US State Department designated as a foreign terrorist organization on Monday.
Maduro has denied the allegations.
On Saturday, Trump said airspace “over and around” the South American country should be considered “totally closed.” Maduro’s government responded by accusing Trump of posing a “colonial threat,” which it called an attack on national sovereignty.
Suspected drug boat bombed
In early September, the U.S. military began blowing up boats suspected of smuggling drugs in the Caribbean Sea and eastern Pacific Ocean, killing more than 80 people.
Many, including Maduro, see the US military move as an attempt to end Chavismo’s hold on power. The opposition only added to this perception by reiterating its promise to remove Maduro from office.
Two weeks after the first boat strike, a direct test of Chavismo’s loyalty came when Maduro’s pilot rebuffed an attempt by the US to join a plot to capture and detain the Venezuelan leader to face charges.
“We Venezuelans are cut from a different cloth,” Bitner Villegas, a member of the elite presidential honor guard, wrote to a retired US official seeking to recruit him. “Lastly we are traitors.”
On Tuesday, supporters of the ruling party rallied in Caracas to demonstrate what they described as Chavismo’s “anti-imperialist spirit”. The march ended with a ceremony in which Maduro held up the bejeweled sword of South American independence hero Simón Bolívar and instructed participants, including cabinet ministers, to swear to God to defend peace and freedom.
Susan Shirk, a research professor at the University of California, San Diego, said that authoritarian leaders have a “fetish for unity” and prefer public displays of loyalty to prevent divisions between the leadership and social upheaval. She said the division could lead people to believe the risk of protest was low.
‘We must unite’
US Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth said the Cartel de los Soules designation would give Trump more options in dealing with Maduro. Hegseth did not provide details on those options, but administration officials have indicated they have trouble seeing a situation in which Maduro is still in power as an acceptable end game.
Tulane University professor David Smilde, who has studied Venezuela for more than three decades, said people who don’t understand Chavismo think only a show of force will change the government.
“This is exactly the kind of thing that unites them,” Smild said of the U.S. military deployment. “They also talk about a $50 million reward, but what military officer in their right mind would trust the US government? And more broadly, if the entire base of operations is the Venezuelan armed forces drug cartels, what motivation would they have to activate Maduro and participate in regime change?”
Maduro’s entire presidency has been marked by a political, social and economic crisis that has pushed millions into poverty and driven more than 7.7 million people into migration. This crisis has also reduced the support of the ruling party across the country.
With his inner circle loyal despite growing U.S. pressure, Maduro has sought to maintain his dwindling base through the long-established practice of holding rallies in the capital.
Zenaida Quintero, a school janitor, saw the country in turmoil under Maduro’s eyes, with vivid memories of the severe food shortages Venezuelans experienced in the late 2010s. His support for Maduro, however, has not wavered, and his commitment comes down to one fact: he was chosen by Chávez to lead the Bolivarian revolution.
Quintero, 60, said Maduro, like Chavez, will not abandon his supporters.
“I trust him,” Quintero said of Maduro. “We must stay united, we must defend ourselves.”
