Currently, there are no stocks with a $5 trillion market cap or higher. Nvidia(NASDAQ: NVDA ) is worth $4.3 trillion, and was worth more than $5 trillion before it was recently pulled back. Following Nvidia Apple At $4 trillion, Alphabet(NASDAQ: GOOG)(NASDAQ: GOOGL ) At $3.7 trillion, and Microsoft At $3.5 trillion. These are the only real candidates that could be worth $5 trillion or more, ie Amazon At $2.6 trillion the company is the fifth largest in the world, meaning its stock would have to more than double to break the $5 trillion threshold.
So, of these four, which one could be worth $5 trillion or more in 2026? I think there are only two real answers, and one might surprise you.
Image source: Getty Images.
I think it should come as no surprise that Nvidia will cross the $5 trillion valuation threshold in 2026. It is still growing rapidly due to its best-in-class graphics processing units (GPU) technology stack. Demand for artificial intelligence computing power in data centers isn’t slowing down, and it shouldn’t be for some time. Nvidia believes global data center capital expenditures will reach $3 trillion to $4 trillion by 2030, rising from $600 billion in 2025. If that succeeds, Nvidia will be a monster performer in the next five years, and 2026 will be another phenomenal year.
CEO Jensen Huang noted that the company is “sold out” of Cloud GPUs, though he did not elaborate on how far into the future they will be sold. After all, demand for its GPUs outstrips supply, which allows it to maintain high prices and high profit margins. This will boost Nvidia’s growth in 2026, and Wall Street analysts expect it to grow an estimated 63% in fiscal 2026 (ends January 2026) and grow again to 48% in fiscal 2027 (ends January 2027).
With such growth, it won’t take long for Nvidia to reach the $5 trillion threshold in 2026.
However, it will take a bit more effort from Alphabet.
Alphabet was a bit behind in the AI arms race as competitors had already launched generative AI tools. Moreover, the initial release of its model was poor and caused several PR nightmares. However, Alphabet has addressed those issues and is now one of the leading providers of generative AI. In addition, Alphabet’s core Google search business was spared a breakup earlier this year due to monopoly concerns, and its future is much clearer now than it was six months ago.
Since July 1, Alphabet’s stock has been on fire, rising nearly 80%. However, for Alphabet’s stock to be worth $5 trillion, it would have to rise at least 35% from today’s levels.
Can it do this?
There are a few ways a stock can grow: increasing revenue and earnings, or increasing valuation. Both of these are reasonable actions to drive the share price up, and Alphabet needs a boost from both to cross the $5 trillion threshold. In Q3, revenue grew 16% year over year, and diluted earnings per share (EPS) rose 35%. If Alphabet can keep up its EPS growth, it could cross the $5 trillion threshold with growth alone. However, I think it could also use some help in the rating department.
Despite growing at the same pace or faster than Apple or Microsoft, Alphabet trades at a discount from a price-to-earnings perspective.
GOOGL PE ratio data by YCharts
If Alphabet’s stock achieves a trailing earnings valuation of 35 times, it will only gain 14%.
Alphabet needs all the help it can get to reach a $5 trillion valuation by the end of 2026, but I think it can do it. Even if that doesn’t happen, I think that level can easily be reached by 2027.
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Keithen Drury has positions in Alphabet, Amazon and Nvidia. The Motley Fool has positions on and recommends Alphabet, Amazon, Apple, Microsoft, and Nvidia. The Motley Fool recommends the following options: long January 2026 $395 calls on Microsoft and short January 2026 $405 calls on Microsoft. Motley Fool has a disclosure policy.
Prediction: These 2 AI Darlings Will Be Worth $5 Trillion or More by 2026 was originally published by The Motley Fool.
