By David Morgan
WASHINGTON, Dec 19 (Reuters) – Concerns that Republicans will lose their majority in the U.S. House of Representatives next year flared up this week, as four moderates joined Democrats in a last-ditch effort to stop a spike in health care costs for 24 million Americans starting in less than two weeks.
The four representatives — Rob Bresnahan, Brian Fitzpatrick and Ryan McKenzie of Pennsylvania and Mike Lawler of New York — are part of a larger group of about a dozen House Republicans who on Dec. 3 are pushing for their own bipartisan reforms aimed at protecting constituents in expanded health care districts. The Affordable Care Act, also known as Obamacare.
They represent a small but important slice of the House — members who represent about three dozen of the 435 seats expected to be contested in November’s midterm elections — that will determine whether President Donald Trump’s Republicans keep their majority or Democrats take it.
But they were unable to reach a deal with Republican leaders, who sought conservative sanctions that lawmakers found unpalatable.
“We wanted an up or down vote,” said Lawler, who faces a toss-up election in his district north of New York City. “Unfortunately, the leadership found every way to prevent that from happening. And so, we were left with no choice but to sign a clean three-year (Democrat) extension and force a vote.”
According to independent analysts, Republicans face an electoral headwind due to Trump’s declining approval ratings, public dissatisfaction with rising prices and a political cycle that often punishes the incumbent president’s party.
Trump’s party is working hard to overcome that historic pattern, with Democrats trying to counter that by launching a campaign to redraw congressional districts in their favor in Republican-held states.
The grant is expiring
Middle House Republicans, critical to Republican control on Capitol Hill, face high risks of not being able to expand health care subsidies and reduce dramatic increases in private health insurance premiums for Affordable Care Act beneficiaries that begin Jan. 1.
“In the event of a blue wave next year, members in competitive seats will have to pay a price, whether they want to restore these Obamacare subsidies,” said Kyle Kondick, a political analyst at the University of Virginia Center for Politics.
“They want to at least be able to go on the record and say, ‘Hey, I voted to extend these subsidies,'” Kondic added.
The bill, signed by House Democratic Leader Hakeem Jeffries, has already failed in the Senate.
The moderates hope that House approval will spur a bipartisan deal that can pass both chambers, which analysts say will help people facing higher health insurance premiums. But there is no guarantee of agreement on an issue that has eluded lawmakers for months, and health care costs will begin to rise before a vote is held.
House passes partition bill
The House instead passed a partisan health care bill that, starting in January 2027, two months after the November election, aims to lower premiums and reduce overall subsidies for some people and raise premiums for others.
House Speaker Mike Johnson, who claims he worked to get liberals to vote on their legislation, denied that they could be more vulnerable to Democrats after the ACA subsidies expire.
“These are extraordinary people. They know how to run campaigns, and they will have a great record of running,” Johnson told Reuters, adding that Republicans will vote on additional legislation next year aimed at reducing health care costs.
Republican moderates have been reluctant to talk about their drive to expand ACA subsidies in terms of their own re-election chances.
“We have a health care problem that we have to solve. That’s all I care about. Politics will take care of itself,” said Fitzpatrick, whose Pennsylvania district Democrat Kamala Harris won in the 2024 presidential election, according to the Ballotpedia website.
Democrats, who see rising health care costs as central to a powerful campaign case on affordability, hope to take full advantage of the Republican-controlled Congress’s inaction on ACA subsidies, potentially repeating their victory in 2018 when they used Republican efforts to repeal Obamacare.
Trump appeared to cement the fate of ACA subsidies on Wednesday, backing a Republican proposal to send cash directly to the public rather than to insurance companies to offset the cost of health insurance, in a rare evening address.
‘More powerful issue’ than 2018 midterms
Democrats will try to push Republicans through cuts to Medicaid under Trump’s tax cuts and spending bill, as well as spiraling health insurance costs caused by the loss of ACA subsidies.
“Between the Medicaid changes and the impending premium spikes, I think this is a much more powerful issue than it was in 2018,” said Charlie Dent, a former Republican congressman who now heads the Aspen Institute’s congressional program.
With the current House majority of 220-213, Republicans cannot lose more than three seats and still retain control of the chamber. But they face more than a dozen toss-up races and more contests where Democrats could be in position to pull off upset victories.
Democratic incumbents are also facing toss-up elections and other races where Republicans are likely to be competitive.
But analysts say Democrats currently have the upper hand, barring any success Trump’s campaign has in sweeping away Democratic seats through mid-decade redistricting.
Meanwhile, Democrats say they have no doubts about their chances next November.
“They will lose the House. Speaker Jeffries will be Speaker,” said Democratic Representative Nancy Pelosi, who was elected to a rare second term as speaker in 2018 after Democrats took control of the chamber.
“There’s no question about that, and it will be because of healthcare. Well, healthcare and affordability and corruption,” she told Reuters.
(Reporting by David Morgan; Editing by Scott Malone and Alistair Bell)
