Two NATO-nation intelligence services suspect that Russia is developing a new anti-satellite weapon to target Elon Musk’s Starlink constellation with a devastating orbiting cloud of shrapnel, with the aim of reining in Western space superiority that has helped Ukraine on the battlefield.
Intelligence findings seen by The Associated Press suggest the so-called “zone-effect” weapon would flood a Starlink orbit with thousands of high-density pellets, potentially disabling multiple satellites at once but also risking catastrophic collateral damage to other orbiting systems.
Analysts who have not seen the findings say it is doubtful that such a weapon could work without causing uncontrollable chaos in space for companies and countries including Russia and its ally China, which rely on thousands of orbiting satellites for communications, defense and other vital needs.
Such implications, including the risk to its own space systems, could dissuade Moscow from using or deploying such weapons, analysts said.
“I don’t buy it. Like, I really don’t,” said Victoria Samson, a space-security expert at the Secure World Foundation, who leads the Colorado-based nonprofit’s annual study of anti-satellite systems. “I would be very surprised, frankly, if they did something like that.”
But the commander of the Canadian military’s space division, Brig. Gen. Christopher Horner said such Russian work could not be ruled out in light of previous U.S. allegations that Russia was also indiscriminately pursuing nuclear, space-based weapons.
“I can’t say I’ve been informed of this type of system. But it’s not inconceivable,” he said. “If the reporting on the nuclear weapons system is correct and they’re willing to develop that and go to that target, it doesn’t shock me that a shorter, but equally damaging, development is within their wheelhouse.”
Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov did not respond to messages from the AP seeking comment. Russia has already called for a United Nations effort to stop the weapons’ orbital deployment, and President Vladimir Putin has said Moscow has no intention of deploying nuclear weapons in space.
Weapons will have multiple targets
The intelligence findings were shown to the AP on the condition that the services involved were not identified and that the news organization was not able to independently verify the conclusions of the findings.
The US Space Force did not respond to e-mailed questions. The French military’s space command told the AP in a statement that it could not comment on the findings but said, “We can inform you that Russia has been increasing its irresponsible, dangerous and even hostile actions in space in recent years.”
Russia views Starlink as a particularly serious threat, the findings indicate. Thousands of low-orbiting satellites, now in their fourth year, are critical to Ukraine’s survival against a full-scale attack by Russia.
Starlink’s high-speed Internet service is used by Ukrainian forces for battlefield communications, weapons targeting and other roles, and by civilian and government officials where Russian attacks have affected communications.
Russian officials have repeatedly warned that commercial satellites serving Ukraine’s military could be legitimate targets. This month, Russia said it had developed a new ground-based missile system, the S-500, capable of hitting low-orbital targets.
Unlike a missile that Russia tested to destroy a Cold War-era dormant satellite in 2021, the new weapon under development would target multiple Starlinks at once, including pellets released by the smaller satellites’ pending launch structures, intelligence sources say.
Canada’s Horner said it was hard to see how a cloud of bullets could simply hit Starlink and that the debris from such an attack could “get out of control in a hurry.”
“You blow up a box full of BBs,” he said. Doing so “blankets the entire orbital regime and takes out every Starlink satellite and every other satellite in the same regime. And I think that’s incredibly problematic.”
The system is probably experimental only
The findings, seen by the AP, did not detail when Russia might be able to use such a system and how far it has been tested or researched.
The system is in active development and is too sensitive to share information about the timing of expected deployments, according to an official familiar with the findings and other related intelligence that AP did not see. The official spoke on condition of anonymity to discuss the non-public findings.
Such Russian research can only be experimental, Samson said.
“I wouldn’t put it past some scientists … to build something like this because it’s an interesting thought-experiment and they think, you know, ‘maybe at some point we can pay our government for this,'” she said.
Samson suggested that the specter of a perceived new Russian threat could also be an attempt to elicit an international response.
“Often the people pushing these ideas are doing it because they want the U.S. side to build something like that or … to justify increased spending on counterspace capabilities or use it for a more hawkish approach to Russia,” she said.
“I’m not saying what’s going on with it,” Samson added. “But it turns out that people take these crazy arguments and use them.”
Small particles may not be detected
Intelligence findings say the bullets would be so small — just millimeters across — that they would avoid detection by ground- and space-based systems that scan for space objects, which could make it difficult to pin blame for any attack on Moscow.
“If the pellets aren’t trackable, it complicates things,” said Clayton Swope, an expert on space security and weapons at the Center for Strategic and International Studies, a Washington, D.C.-based security and policy think tank, but “people will figure it out.”
“If the satellites start blinking with damage, I think you can put two and two together,” he said.
Exactly how much damage the small pellets can cause is unclear. In November, the suspected impact of a small piece of debris was enough to damage a Chinese spacecraft carrying three astronauts back to Earth.
“The most damage is probably to the solar panels because they are probably the weakest part of the satellites”, said Swope. “However, that would be enough to damage the satellite and bring it offline.”
‘Weapons of fear’ can threaten chaos
After such an attack, particles and debris would return to Earth over time, possibly damaging other orbital systems in their path, analysts say.
Starlink orbits about 550 km (340 mi) above the planet. China’s Tiangong Space Station and the International Space Station operate in low orbit, “so both will face risks,” according to Swope.
The space chaos such a weapon could cause could enable Moscow to intimidate its adversaries without actually using it, Swope said.
“It definitely sounds like a weapon of fear, looking for some kind of resistance or something,” he said.
Samson said the weakness of indiscriminate ammunition could steer Russia away from such a path.
“They’ve invested a tremendous amount of time and money and manpower into building a space force, you know,” she said.
Using such a weapon “would also effectively cut off space for them,” Samson said. “I don’t know if they would be willing to give up that much.”
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Emma Burroughs in London contributed to this report.
