Bitcoin’s value will rise to $1M by 2033, investors say, with predictions claiming it will beat the S&P 500 in 2026

Key takeaways

• Prominent investors are reinforcing long-term predictions that Bitcoin will reach $1 million.

• Prediction markets show traders that Bitcoin could outperform gold and the S&P 500 in early 2026.

• Despite the bullish long-term sentiment, analysts have warned that weaker technical indicators could expose bitcoin to further downside.

Bitcoin bulls have become increasingly vocal, with investors and traders betting that the cryptocurrency will outperform traditional assets both in the near term and over the next decade.

That long-term belief was underscored on Christmas Day when investor Mike Alfred posted on X that he was staking both his reputation and his bitcoin holdings on the asset’s future.

Mike Alfred, a well-known investor recognized for his long-time bullish stance on Bitcoin, went above and beyond in his Christmas Day post.

Instead of just sharing a prediction, Alfred said he will sell his entire Bitcoin portfolio and delete his X account if the price of Bitcoin does not reach $1 million by December 31, 2033.

“You only live once, and I think it’s important to take a stand, believe in something, and put your money where your mouth is,” Alfred wrote.

For silver this week, some investors are ‘putting their money where their mouth is.’ A few days later, Alfred reiterated his optimism, arguing that the recent selling pressure had already ended.

In a December 27 post, he claimed that what he described as “the worst” traders had moved into silver and sold their bitcoin positions.

“Anyone who isn’t a vegetable will know what happens next,” he added.

Alfred’s comments align with a broader wave of optimistic bitcoin price predictions from key figures in the crypto industry.

Fundstrat’s Tom Lee has repeatedly predicted that bitcoin could rise above $200,000 in the long term, citing easing financial conditions and rising demand as key drivers.

Meanwhile, the strategy’s executive chairman, Michael Seiler, has long argued that bitcoin’s price could eventually exceed $1 million.

Pixelmatic CEO Samson Mou has also long supported the $1 million bitcoin thesis.

“Since getting into Bitcoin, what I’ve consistently found is that everything always happens faster than I expect,” Mow wrote in a March post on X.

While Mow says his internal model indicates that Bitcoin will reach $1 million by 2031, he also suggests that this milestone could be reached sooner.

Bullish sentiment is not limited to long-term projections.

At Polymarket, traders are placing real-money bets that bitcoin will outperform traditional assets as early as 2026.

Current odds give Bitcoin about a 40% chance of outperforming both gold and the S&P 500 that year.

By comparison, traders place a 32% chance on gold and a 27% chance on the S&P 500.

However, not all indicators support a bullish outlook in the near term.

Some analysts warn that bitcoin’s technical structure has weakened, complicating the prospect of a quick recovery.

Victor Olanrewaju, an analyst at CCN, said Bitcoin has broken out of a major bullish pattern on the weekly chart – a move that historically increases downside risk.

“On the weekly chart, bitcoin’s structure has weakened, making a near-term recovery less straightforward,” Olanrewaju said.

He added that Bitcoin has broken below the lower boundary of the rising wedge pattern, a development that usually favors further declines rather than continuation.

Momentum indicators are also reinforcing bearish signals. Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) has printed a bearish crossover in the higher time frame.

“This crossover reinforces the view that sales pressure is increasing,” Olanrewaju said.

With Bitcoin now trading below an old support zone, he noted that a rebound may struggle to gain momentum. A retest of resistance near $96,792 could prove difficult, and failure to reclaim that level could result in deep losses for the market.

“If buyers fail to reclaim that area, downside risk increases, with $78,596 emerging as another key support area,” he said.

However, Olanrewaju stressed that the setup was not decisive.

A strong revival in demand, especially if accompanied by high trading volume, may invalidate a bearish breakdown.

“An increase in demand supported by more substantial volume could open the way towards the $100,000 psychological level,” he said.

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