Medellin, Colombia – The shock removal Venezuelan leader Nicolas Maduro’s United States forces have threatened the border with Colombia, where analysts have warned of the possibility. far-reaching consequences.
The Colombian government condemned Washington’s early Saturday attack on Venezuela – which included attacks on military targets and the capture of Maduro – and announced plans to fortify its 2,219-kilometer (1,378-mile) eastern land border, a historic center of insurgency and cocaine production.
Security analysts also say Maduro’s statement could further worsen the already deteriorating security situation in Colombia, while refugee advocacy groups warn the country will suffer the effects of potential migrant waves resulting from the intervention.
The Colombian government held an emergency national security meeting at 3 a.m. (09:00 GMT), according to President Gustavo Petro.
“The Colombian government condemns the attack on the sovereignty of Venezuela and Latin America,” the president wrote in an X post, announcing the mobilization of state forces to secure the border.
ELN factor
The National Liberation Army (ELN)A leftist group and the country’s largest remaining rebel force, voiced as recently as December preparations to defend the country against “imperialist interference”.
Security analysts say the primary national security risk for Colombia is the attacks stemming from the ELN, which controls almost the entire border with Venezuela.
“I think there is now a high risk that the ELN will consider retaliating against Western targets here, including in Colombia,” said Elizabeth Dickinson, deputy director for Latin America at Crisis Group International.
The insurgent group is heavily involved in cocaine smuggling and operates on both sides of the border; It has benefited from ties to the Maduro government, and US interference threatens the group’s international operations, according to analysts.
The ELN, which has positioned itself as a bastion against US imperialism in the region, launched the violence in response to White House threats against Colombia and Venezuela. In December, it ordered Colombians to stay at home and bombed state installations across the country, an action it described as a response to US aggression.
The Colombian government has stepped up security measures in anticipation of possible retaliatory actions by the ELN following Maduro’s ouster.
“All the capabilities of the security forces have been activated to prevent any terrorist activity by the population, strategic assets, embassies, military and police units, as well as international criminal organizations such as the ELN cartel,” the Colombian Ministry of Defense said in a statement issued Saturday morning.
‘Mass influx of refugees’
In addition to fears of escalating violence, Colombia also stands to bear the brunt of any migration crisis triggered by the conflict in Venezuela.
In an X post on Saturday morning, Petro said the government had strengthened humanitarian provisions along its eastern border, writing, “All aid resources at our disposal have been deployed in case of a large influx of refugees.”
To date, Colombia has received the highest number of Venezuelan refugees worldwide, with 3 million of the approximately 8 million people who have left the country settling in Colombia.
A previous wave of mass migration in 2019 – which followed the opposition leader Juan Guaido’s failed attempt to oust Maduro – A massive humanitarian operation is needed to provide housing, food, and medical attention to refugees.
Such an operation is now likely to prove even more challenging, as Colombia lost nearly 70 percent of all humanitarian funding after the Trump administration shut down USAID programs in the country last year.
“There is a real possibility of short-term population movements, both precautionary and coercive, especially if instability, reprisals, or power vacuums emerge,” said Juan Carlos Viloria, a leader of the Venezuelan diaspora in Colombia.
“Colombia must not only respond to potential arrivals, but also proactively prepare by activating security mechanisms, humanitarian corridors and asylum systems to prevent chaos and human rights violations at the border,” Viloria added.
Further deterioration in US-Colombia relations
Analysts say Maduro’s ouster raises tough questions for Petro, who has been engaged in a war of words with Trump since taking office as US president last year.
The Colombian leader has drawn Trump’s ire in recent months when he condemned Washington’s military buildup in the Caribbean and accused a Colombian fisherman of being killed in territorial waters. In response, the White House endorsed Petro, with Trump calling him a “thug” and “an illegal drug dealer.”
“Petro is irascible at the moment because he sees Trump and his threats as a real possibility, not an empty one,” said Sergio Guzman, director of Colombia Risk Analysis, a security consultancy based in Bogota.
In fact, Trump has repeatedly launched military strikes against drug production sites in Colombia. However, experts say the White House is unlikely to take unilateral action because of its historic cooperation with Colombian security forces.
Although Petro condemned Washington’s intervention in Venezuela, he previously called Maduro a “dictator” and joined the US and other nations in refusing to recognize the strongman’s fraudulent re-election as president in 2024.
Instead of supporting Maduro, the Colombian leader has positioned himself as a defender of national sovereignty and international law.
On Saturday, Petro called for an emergency meeting of the UN Security Council, which Colombia joined as a temporary member a few days ago.
“Colombia reaffirms its unconditional commitment to the principles contained in the Charter of the United Nations,” the president wrote in X Post.
This story was published in conjunction with Latin America Report.
