Ray Dalio warns America “on the edge“As the Transition from Stage 5 Pre-Breakdown to Stage 6 Systemic Collapse Bitcoin Trading defensively at $88,000, US counterparts have been trapped in a 60-day range by record institutional selling pressure.
Billionaire Investor’s Latest Analysis”Big bike“Bitcoin’s Failure to Comply With It”Digital gold” story, while traditional safe havens hit all-time highs.
Powered by prediction markets
Dalio’s framework describes the insolvent government finance and wealth gap as “The single most reliable leading indicator of civil war or revolution“The current situation, he argues, illustrates the American reality.
Meanwhile, Wintermute’s desk reports that Bitcoin is stuck in the middle $85,000 and $94,000 U.S. spot ETF products are bleeding capital and trade at a persistent discount to the Coinbase premium, indicating that domestic institutions are accelerating the slowdown.
Dalio’s long essay places current American conditions within Stage 5 of his Big Cycle framework, where “Poor economic conditions and intense conflict” before a systemic breakdown.
“We are now clearly on the verge of passing from stage 5 (pre-breakdown) to stage 6 (breakdown).” he wrote, pointing to unsustainable debt burdens that force governments to either”Print more money, which lowers its valueor impose painful penance.
The analysis comes as Bitcoin has traded range-bound for 60 consecutive days, an unusual pattern for an asset class often marketed as a hedge against currency devaluation, Dalio describes.
Source: Wintermute
Gold climbed above $5,066 an ounce on Tuesday, while silver rose 6.4% to $110.60, both hitting new records as investors sought traditional inflation hedges.
Dalio warned that “Subsequent steps may include capital controls, reserve freezes, and cross-border sanctions, turning funds into political tools.“Terms that are generally favorable”freely transferable property“and investment”Prioritizing resistance to freezing and blockades.“
Bitcoin proponents have long argued that the crypto fits this profile, but the asset has failed to attract safe-haven flows amid heightened macro uncertainty.
Wintermute’s OTC desk identified US selling pressure as the primary force keeping Bitcoin within its trading range.
“Coinbase Premium confirms this. US counterparties are net sellers, more so than in Europe (marginal buyers) or Asia (neutral).The firm’s market update noted, “ETFs drive momentum in this market; When that bid disappears, you get jerky, directionless price action.“
U.S. spot bitcoin ETF products last week recorded their biggest weekly outflow since February 2025, reversing strong flows toward $97,000 with January’s brief breakout attempt.
The failure of that rally left Bitcoin in the middle of its established range, serving as $85,000 testing support.
CryptoQuant’s on-chain analysis suggests selling pressure also comes from opportunistic profit-taking rather than forced capitulation.
Source: CryptoQuant
The condition index of the mines is printed close to -1.5, which indicates the mines “are now selling below their 1-year averageAfter aggressive inventory monetization at $110,000-$120,000 levels.
Similarly, the exchange rate ratio remains high, but the deposit decreases.”Below the previous spike high, indicating all-in capitalization rather than strategic, price-sensitive distribution.“
Source: CryptoQuant
Speaking to CryptoNews, B2 Ventures founder Arthur Azizov framed bitcoin’s weakness in terms of competing safe-haven narratives.
“When uncertainty increases, capital moves first to classic defensive assets. As we now see gold breaking above $5,000,Azizov said,Bitcoin is often called ‘digital gold’, but in reality, it is still, first and foremost, a risk asset.“
Several macro catalysts converge this week that could finally break Bitcoin out of its narrow range.
The Federal Reserve announces its policy decision on Wednesday with key earnings from Microsoft, Meta, Tesla and Apple, while Trump’s fresh 25% tariff threat against South Korea adds to geopolitical uncertainty.
Winter analysts expect continued consolidation absent a clear directional catalyst.
“A 60-day compression meets so many event risks, giving some,“The firm concluded, identifying $85,000 as a critical support level with an ETF flow reversal needed before Bitcoin could do so”Confidently break above the mid-$90K level.“
Bitcoin opened at $88,553 today and rose 1.4% as Asian markets opened with tentative optimism despite fresh tariff threats.
Source: TradingView
However, at the time of writing, Bitcoin has bounced back below the $88K support level, pushing the total crypto market cap to $3.06 trillion, down 0.18% on the day.
The uncertain outlook comes as broader risk assets are found ahead of the Fed decision, although Azizov’s “The base case is integration“With the expectation that Bitcoin will be”Hold the $85k–$88k region“which previously served as strong support until the end of 2025.
Read original story Posted: US Nears Crisis Point As Bitcoin Trapped By US Selling Pressure By Anas Hasan at Cryptonews.com
