Citrini Research — the financial research publication that gained attention in February for its Doomsday AI report — sent an analyst to the Strait of Hormuz to report on conditions underground. Its report may not close the strait when pricing the market.
According to videos posted on the Citrini Research substack page and X, the analyst, dubbed “Analyst #3,” visited the Straits in March and discovered that the satellite- and ship-tracking data relied on by the market were undercounting the “dark fleet” of vessels operating in the area.
The report was quoted as saying that the ships falsified their location data and changed their ownership designations to hide their movements through Iran’s tolling system and ensure their safety.
According to Citrini’s findings, the market has lost a large portion of Iranian-directed shipping traffic through the strait.
Read more: What an extended war with Iran could mean for gas prices
Going into Strait, “we thought we’d basically leave the impression that ‘Straight was closed or open,'” Citrini wrote in the public section of its client report. “We were also aware that this trip could be a flop and we would learn nothing.”
“There was no shortage of alpha in the strait, including concrete information on the new rules, written as we speak, about how the Iranian Revolutionary Guard is deciding who can and can’t pass,” the report said.
Citrini Research said its on-the-ground analyst is “now safe and sound in the free world.”
Oil prices popped at the open of futures trading on Sunday before normalizing overnight. At 11:15 am ET Monday, international benchmark Brent crude (BZ=F) rose 0.4% to $109 a barrel, while U.S. benchmark West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude (CL=F) futures rose 0.4% to $112 a barrel.
The latest data from Bloomberg Intelligence shows that over the weekend, 21 ships transited the Strait of Hormuz, marking the highest volume of traffic through the critical waterway since the war began. While most of those ships were Iranian, according to Bloomberg oil strategist Julian Lee, ships from China, Japan and Iraq, among other countries that have agreed to Iran’s tolling regime, have also passed through.
