After a dramatic Easter weekend for the war in Iran — downed U.S. fighter jets, daring rescues behind enemy lines, and attacks on universities and petrochemical plants — traders hesitated at Monday’s opening bell.
Both the S&P and crude prices were little changed at the open, and both rose slightly in the first hour of morning trading. The market, it seems, is twiddling its thumbs waiting for the clock to run out. It looks like a three-way standoff between Trump, the Iranians and the markets as each waits for the other to blink.
Late Sunday evening, Axios reported that mediators from Pakistan, Egypt and Turkey were making last-ditch efforts to broker a deal. A senior White House official told NBC News that a 45-day ceasefire was “one of many things being considered,” but that President Trump had not signed off on the idea. Yet by Monday morning, Iranian Foreign Ministry spokesman Ismail Baghai called the proposal for a short-term ceasefire “illogical” and unacceptable, saying that agreeing to such terms without a guarantee that they would not strike again was something “no rational person would do.”
It is unclear whether Baghai was referring to the 45-day ceasefire plan exactly. However, Gregory Brew, senior oil analyst at Eurasia Group, called Iran’s response “surprising”.
“Iran has little incentive to leave the strait [of Hormuz] For temporary relief — especially with the US moving more assets into the region,” Brew wrote in X.
Despite the rumblings about a cease-fire, one thing is clear: Time is running out on both sides. Over the weekend, Trump set his fourth deadline for reaching a deal with Iran — Tuesday at 8 p.m. ET. The extension came with an expletive-laden threat to “open up the f-kin’ strait,” with Trump warning that he would strike Iran’s power plants and bridges if there was no deal. Humanitarian groups have warned that targeting civilian infrastructure would constitute a war crime, a charge echoed by Iran’s deputy foreign minister, citing the Geneva Convention.
Meanwhile, the number of injured continues to rise. Iranian state media reported that at least 25 people, including six children, were killed overnight in US-Israeli attacks on a university and two petrochemical plants in Tehran. Israel said it struck the South Pars petrochemical factory in Asluyeh, which the defense minister says is responsible for about 50 percent of Iran’s petrochemical production. On the other hand, Iranian missiles hit a residential neighborhood in Haifa, killing four people, including an infant.
