Shares have fallen after the collapse of US-Iran peace talks

Examining how US market futures are faring ahead of the opening bell in New York, contracts are in the red across three major indices.

S&P 500 futures (ES=F) are down 0.6%, while the tech-focused Nasdaq 100 (NQ=F) is down about 0.7%, and Dow Jones Industrial Average futures (YM=F) are down 0.5%.

The Resolution Foundation has warned that working-age families in the UK could be £480 worse off this year as a result of higher energy prices due to the Middle East conflict.

The think tank said on Monday that the typical household saw its income fall by 0.6% this year, having previously been on track for a 0.9% increase.

James Smith, chief economist at the Resolution Foundation, said: “Despite hopes for a lasting peace, the path to this conflict remains uncertain and energy prices remain above pre-war levels, meaning many households face a decline in their purchasing power this year.”

“This squeeze will run through the income distribution,” he said. “Low-income families will still see some income growth thanks to the long-awaited increase in real benefit levels, but inflation will knock them out of the percentage they stand to gain.”

“For those in the middle and at the top of the income distribution, even the thin growth they expected has tipped into negative territory,” Smith added.

Gold prices fell on Monday morning as the dollar strengthened following the latest developments in the Middle East conflict.

As hopes for a quick resolution to the Iran war waned, investors turned to the dollar, generally considered a safe-haven currency.

The U.S. dollar index (DX-Y.NYB), which tracks the greenback against a basket of six currencies, was up 0.3% at 98.97 at the time of writing.

A stronger dollar weighs on the price of gold, the precious metal typically priced in U.S. currency, making it more expensive for foreign buyers.

Gold futures (GC=F) fell 1% to $4,737.80 an ounce, while spot gold fell 0.7% to $4,715.42 an ounce.

Heathrow Airport said on Monday that its outlook for the next few months was uncertain due to conflict in the Middle East.

In a statement, Britain’s biggest airport said it was supporting airlines and passengers as they adapt to airspace closures in the Middle East, including a 10% spike in passenger transfers.

Heathrow saw year-on-year growth last month despite disruptions as demand shifted to the long-haul network, with 6.6 million passengers.

Heathrow CEO Thomas Woldby said: “Heathrow’s long-haul network accommodated demand in March, but the outlook for the next few months remains uncertain. I’m proud that colleagues are adapting quickly and continuing to provide an excellent service to passengers during difficult times.”

FTSE 250-listed housebuilder Vistry ( VTY.L ) announced on Monday that it has appointed Adam Daniels as CEO and executive director with immediate effect.

Daniels, who is currently executive chairman of one of Wistry’s two largest operating divisions and a member of the company’s executive leadership team, is taking over from Greg Fitzgerald.

Vistari shares fell 3% on Monday morning, following the announcement, and are down nearly 49% year-to-date.

Ross Mold, investment director at AJ Bell ( AJB.L ), said: “The market appears to have been hit by the identification of Greg Fitzgerald’s replacement at Vistry after the housebuilder opted to promote from within.”

“It appears that investors would prefer to see more experienced hands at the helm to continue the recovery from this episode in what appears to be a difficult market environment,” he said.

The failure of the US-Iran peace talks and Trump’s threat to impose a blockade on the Strait of Hormuz led to a new surge in oil prices on Monday morning.

Brent crude futures (BZ=F) rose 7.3% to $102.13 a barrel, while West Texas Intermediate (CL=F) rose 7.6% to $103.88 a barrel.

Neil Wilson, investment strategist at Saxo UK, said: “The main thing to consider is China as a major customer of Iranian oil – sanctions seem to be a tool for China to pressure its strategic partner to hurry up and force a deal. Diplomacy in this case is a continuation of war by other means.”

“We will see how this plays out in the next few weeks but it seems that there is a willingness on the part of the two major superpowers, the US and China, to ease tensions and continue negotiations,” he said. “There is clearly a geopolitical premium for oil this week and it will continue to face volatility and sudden swings.”

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