By Mike Dolan
April 13 –
What matters in the US and global markets today
By Mike Dolan https://www.reuters.com/authors/mike-dolan/, Editor-at-Large, Finance and Markets
Oil prices bounced back above https://www.reuters.com/business/energy/oil-bounces-back-above-100-after-us-iran-talks-end-stalemate-2026-04-12/ $100 a barrel and global stocks were volatile https://www.reuters.com/world/china/global-markets-wrapup-1-2026-04-12/ on Monday after US President Donald Trump sought sanctions. https://www.reuters.com/world/middle-east/us-blockade-iran-after-talks-fail-yield-a-port-02/02-02-02-02-2012-2020-2020-2019 The critical Strait of Hormuz after peace talks failed last weekend in Islamabad.
It is unclear whether the failure of the talks will jeopardize the two-week ceasefire announced last week https://www.reuters.com/world/asia-pacific/iran-defiant-eve-trumps-ceasefire-deadline-2026-04-07/, but Trump’s efforts have preempted a last-ditch effort to send the US Navy to Gul. Relief rally of the week.
I’ll get into that and more below.
But first, listen to the latest episode of the Morning Bid daily podcast https://www.reuters.com/podcasts/reuters-morning-bid/blockade-hard-place-2026-04-13/, where I break down the latest twists in the US-Iran war – and why markets should worry about Viktor Orban’s election defeat.
And finally, don’t forget to mark your calendars for April 23rd, when I’ll be joining my ROI colleague Jamie McGeever for a timely webinar discussion on rethinking safe-haven assets in uncertain times. Sign up here https://www.lseg.com/en/training/learning-centre/learning-centre-catalogue/course-details?id=markets-unpacked-with-reuters-open-interest-rethinking-safe-havens-in-uncertain-times-en-webex .
The blockade takes its toll
Both Brent and WTI crude oil jumped above $100 per barrel https://www.reuters.com/business/energy/oil-bounces-back-above-100-after-us-iran-talks-end-stalemate-2026-04-12/ on Monday as the US Navy prepares for its impact on the block 04-12/. However, benchmarks remain below last week’s highs before the ceasefire announcement.
Wall Street futures were down about 1% https://www.reuters.com/world/asia-pacific/wall-street-futures-drop-after-us-iran-peace-talks-fail-2026-04-13/ before bail and European shares slipped https://www.reuters.com/markets/europe/european-shares-poised-open-lower-middle-east-talks-fail-2026-04-13/, while major Asian indices closed lower. The dollar https://www.reuters.com/world/asia-pacific/dollar-strengthens-peace-talks-falter-us-blockade-irans-ports-begin-2026-04-12/ rose against major currencies in early trade but later pared some of those gains.
Since the start of the conflict, the price of Brent crude has increased by 40 percent. Perhaps most troubling for American consumers was President Trump’s admission on Sunday https://www.reuters.com/world/asia-pacific/trump-says-us-start-blockading-strait-hormuz-2026-04-12/ that gas prices could stay up — or even rise — through the midterm elections in November. That admission alone indicates that domestic political pressures are unlikely to secure an early end to the Middle East conflict.
The inflationary impact of the war became clear last Friday as US consumer prices rose by the most in nearly four years in March, leaving annual inflation at 3.3% https://www.reuters.com/world/middle-east/us-consumer-prices-surge-expected-march-2026-04-10 Gas prices rose the most in months.
Elsewhere, Hungarian nationalist leader Viktor Orban was voted out of office https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/orban-ousted-after-16-years-hungarians-flock-pro-eu-rival-2026-04-12/ 16 years in power 2026-04-12/ In a landslide weekend, Peter’s party won two major elections. In Parliament. This will allow Magyar https://www.reuters.com/business/finance/hungary-oppositions-landslide-win-heralds-reforms-thaw-eu-ties-2026-04-13/ to seek warmer relations with the EU and implement constitutional reforms.
The Hungarian forint rose https://www.reuters.com/business/hungarian-forint-jumps-after-orbans-election-defeat-2026-04-13/ , as did the country’s bonds, with some 18 billion euros of pooled EU funds now potentially on tap.
Finally, the first quarter US earnings season will begin today with an update from Goldman Sachs on growth, while the spring meetings of the IMF and World Bank are set to begin in Washington.
Chart of the day
An estimated 10% of the S&P 500 will report first-quarter results by this Friday https://www.reuters.com/business/wall-st-week-ahead-us-earnings-season-set-test-war-rattled-stocks-2026-04-10/, with earnings due to flood the following week. Aside from banks, major company results this week include Netflix, Johnson & Johnson and PepsiCo.
Earnings at overall S&P 500 companies are expected to rise about 14% from the year-ago period, according to analyst estimates compiled by LSEG IBES as of Friday. Instead of panicking over the prospect of a year-long oil shock, analysts are actually forecasting full-year S&P 500 earnings growth. Whether that will be side-wiped by the companies’ own directives remains to be seen.
Today’s events to watch
* US March Existing Home Sales (10 a.m. EDT)
* The Fed’s Stephen Miran speaks
* World Bank and IMF spring meetings begin in Washington
* OPEC Monthly Oil Market Report
* US Corporate Income: Goldman Sachs
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(by Mike Dolan)
