By Andrew Osborne, Dmitry Antonov and Jan Lopatka
MOSCOW, April 13 (Reuters) – Russian hardliners saw Viktor Orban’s defeat in Hungary as a serious setback that would open up EU funding for Ukraine to fight Russia next year, but the Kremlin rejected the outcome, saying it was open to talks with Orban’s successor.
Orban, Hungary’s veteran nationalist leader who lost power on Sunday in nL1N40V01B to upstart center-right rival Peter Magyar after 16 years in office, was a welcome guest in Moscow, where he held talks with President Vladimir Putin as recently as November.
Orbán ensured that Hungary continued to buy Russian oil and gas despite Moscow’s war on Ukraine https://www.reuters.com/world/ukraine-russia-war/, allowed Russia to begin work on building a new nuclear power plant south of Budapest, and often spoke out against sanctions on Russia while clearly opposing joining Kyiv-b2c-7.
He blocked a 90-billion-euro ($105-billion) EU loan to Ukraine after accusing him of sabotaging Russian oil deliveries to his country by dragging his feet to repair a damaged pipeline, which Kiev has rejected.
Magyar is more of an unknown quantity to Moscow. He has combined pro-EU and pro-NATO rhetoric with a public acknowledgment that he will continue to buy Russian oil and gas despite talks with Putin and talks about diversifying and reviewing deals.
The Kremlin made clear, however, that it is ready to turn the page soon if it happens. Without mentioning Orbán by name, it said it respected the Hungarian people’s choice and was ready to do business with Magyar.
“We look forward to continuing our highly pragmatic engagement with Hungary’s new leadership,” Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov told reporters.
“We have noted Magyar’s statement that he is willing to engage in negotiations. Naturally, it will be beneficial for both Moscow and Budapest,” Peskov said.
Peskov later told state TV that it was not yet clear what the stance of the new Hungarian leadership would be, and that the Kremlin would not congratulate Magyar on his victory because of Hungary’s formal designation as an “unfriendly country”.
Unlocking EU funding?
Hardliners and war bloggers inside Russia were almost unanimous, however, that Orbán’s defeat was bad news for Moscow.
“Orbán’s defeat in the election will have one consequence for us here in Russia. But it is very important,” said Andrei Medvedev, a blogger and journalist with a large following.
“Now … Ukraine will receive EU funds, and with them, the resources to fight the war for at least a year. It goes without saying that the Ukrainian armed forces and many contractors will focus on further developing their drone systems and missile capabilities,” he said.
Ramzai, another influential blogger, was equally depressed.
“It is clear that Hungary will soon adopt anti-Russian sanctions and stop the EU’s multi-billion euro aid to Ukraine. Russia’s contracts for the completion of the Paks (II) nuclear power plant and the supply of gas and oil will also be called into question,” he said.
Oleg Ignatov, a senior analyst at the International Crisis Group think tank, said Hungary’s close relationship with Russia would not disappear overnight but would be reduced to strict pragmatism.
Ultimately, though, he said future relations will depend on how Hungary decides to address the issue of Russian oil and gas supplies, which the EU wants to phase out as a bloc.
“If Hungary works with the rest of the EU to enable this (phase-out) to happen, Hungary’s role as a more Moscow-friendly outpost within the EU will really end,” Ignatov said.
“If that doesn’t happen, things will get more complicated.”
Slovakia’s FICO as the New Urban?
Orbán’s defeat is also a blow to his ally, Slovak Prime Minister Robert Fico.
Fico has warm relations with Russia, is willing to buy Russian oil and gas, and has warned that Bratislava could freeze the EU’s 90-billion-euro loan to Kiev if Budapest withdraws its own objections.
But diplomats, opposition politicians and analysts believe Fico – whose fractured ruling coalition is hung by a wafer-thin parliamentary majority – could struggle to reassert Orbán’s role as the EU’s obstructionist-in-chief. Bratislava, they say, is too dependent on EU funding.
The fact that it is half the size of Hungary means it also carries less political weight, said Miroslav Vlachovski, a former Slovak foreign minister.
“I believe Fico will not move east anymore. He will find someone in Brussels so that he is not completely alone,” said one EU diplomat, who declined to be named because of the sensitivity of the matter.
Tomas Straje, director of the Slovak Foreign Policy Association, said he believes Fico will continue his pro-Russian rhetoric and criticism of EU policies because that’s what his voters want to hear. “Given his domestic position towards Russia, he needs to make moves, and I believe Russia’s interest in Slovakia will increase,” Straje said.
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(Reporting by Andrew Osborne and Dmitry Antonov in Moscow and Jan Lopatka in Prague; Writing by Andrew Osborne; Editing by Guy Falconbridge, Gareth Jones and Andrew Havens)
