Republicans breathed a little easier this weekend, cautiously optimistic that President Donald Trump has found an off-ramp to end the war in Iran.
With oil falling below $90 a barrel, the stock market hitting new all-time highs, and gas down 8 cents a gallon this week, some felt a light breeze at their backs for the first time since the war began in late February.
“Everybody knows the historical trends. But at least lower gas prices, with the war actively behind us, could restore some of the momentum that followed the State of the Union,” said Matt Gorman, GOP communications strategist at Targeted Victory. “Republicans are dying for the ability to return to crime.”
Whether Trump and Iran will give them that chance remains to be seen. Iranian military officials said on Saturday that they had once again taken “tight control” of the Strait of Hormuz due to the US blockade, a sign of how tenuous and possibly fleeting progress could be. The move came after gunboats from the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps opened fire on a tanker trying to cross the strait.
While it may seem early to pop the champagne — for example, Iran has denied even agreeing to move its enriched uranium to the U.S., as Trump claimed — the consolation is out of proportion to how miserable things looked just a few days ago. Republicans say the trick now is keeping distractions to a minimum — no small task when a party leader is one social media post away from a new controversy. Success also rests on the administration’s theory of rapid economic recovery — and voters feeling relieved.
“Short term, of course there’s relief, but it’s the little political hand grenade that’s challenging,” said one GOP donor, who spoke on condition of anonymity. “Rather than being able [to] Focusing only on tax returns this week, members got questions about the Pope and the ballroom.
The frayed nerves underscore just how damaging the past few weeks have been for GOP supporters and strategists. War with Iran was never popular, it fractured the MAGA base and called into question the president’s position on the original movement’s principles. Polls show the House lost and the Senate in play. And a spike in gas prices could negate one of the president’s signature accomplishments — massive tax cuts that are supposed to line voters’ pockets and stimulate the economy. Along the way, squabbles with the Pope, defeats in war and Viktor Orbán’s defeat in Hungary gave them the impression of an administration at the mercy of events rather than in control.
“The Iran issue has become a contributing factor to a broader set of fundamental concerns that voters have about the economy and global stability,” said Kevin Madden, a longtime GOP communications strategist and partner at Penta, a Washington-based consulting firm. “It’s good that tensions are easing. In terms of the 2026 midterm, the key consideration is how sustainable the currency is today.”
The stability of the ceasefire in Iran and Lebanon is uncertain, but Tehran’s decision earlier this week, along with a commitment by European leaders to allow ships to pass through the Strait of Hormuz, gives Republicans hope that it will help preserve it.
“A big sigh of relief from congressional Republicans today,” said former Rep. Carlos Curbelo, a Florida Republican. “It looks like they’re going to be able to put the Iran conflict in the rear-view mirror; There is still plenty of time to refocus voters on tax cuts and other issues. It will be a steep uphill climb, but now they will have a chance.”
Friday’s good news vindicated the president’s argument that economic disruptions from the war would be brief, White House spokesman Taylor Rogers said.
“Time and time again, the ‘panics’ have been proven wrong by President Trump who consistently delivers on his promises to the American people. The president remains focused on keeping the American people safe, reducing costs for working families and making our country greater than ever,” Rogers said. “The President has always been clear that these were short-term, temporary obstacles that would be resolved through Operation Epic Fury and the unprecedented success of the ongoing peace talks that followed.”
Trump was also in a celebratory mood. On Friday in Arizona, the second and final stop on a Southwest tour through battleground states to promote his tax cuts, Trump told reporters it was a “big day.”
“We’ll see how it all turns out but it should be good, some very good discussions,” Trump said. “The talks are going on, it goes into the weekend and a lot of good things are happening.”
Speaking at the Turning Point USA event, Trump appeared in an upbeat mood, citing a lower trade deficit, the end of the DEI, and tax cuts among other items as highlights of his second term as he touted those successes for a clear midterm win.
“You’ve got to go out and vote Republican, we need that,” Trump said before delivering the day’s good news. “Did you see the oil drop today? Did you see the price drop today?”
Still, not everyone shares Trump’s enthusiasm, with some Republicans wary that Trump’s shoe is about to drop.
“I would say I’m cautiously optimistic, not a full-blown believer that it will hold,” said a GOP operative who works in a swing state.
And for all the happiness, some Republicans, especially those less enamored with Trump’s leadership, still see the flood of good news as doing little to stem the blue tide headed their way.
Former Colorado Republican Ken Buck deadpanned, “An end to a war with Iran that would result in Iran giving up its highly enriched uranium and ending its military nuclear program would increase the likelihood that Republicans would lose the House by a margin of 15-20 votes.”
