It was about 20 years ago right around this time when George W. Bush’s approval ratings began to fall. And while Bush’s numbers in most polls first dipped into the 30s in late winter and early spring, the culprit was clear: the Iraq War.
History may repeat itself in 2026 with President Donald Trump. Replace Iraq with Iran.
Two new polls released Tuesday morning showed Trump’s approval rating in the mid-30s: 36% in a Reuters-Ipsos poll and 35% in a strong Number-Verasite poll. They follow an NBC News poll over the weekend that showed Trump hitting a new low of 37%.
Over the past month, eight out of nine quality polls tracked by CNN have Trump in the 30s.
The only exception was a Fox News poll that pegged Trump at 41%, but it also showed Trump with his worst poll numbers since 2017.
Let’s put those numbers into context.
Disapproval of Trump is at a new high
Not every poll shows Trump plumbing new depths with his approval ratings.
Some pollsters see him in his first year in office in 2017 or after Jan. 6, 2021, a little short of the capitol attack.
But Trump’s 62% average disapproval rating in the CNN poll of polls — which is the average of the quality polls mentioned above — is higher than any pollster has indicated in any of those past instances.
Trump’s highest disapproval ratings in individual polls in 2017 were: 63% in a Pew Research Center poll, 61% in a Quinnipiac University poll and 60% in a Reuters-Ipsos poll. After January 6, he lost to 62% in a CNN poll, 61% in a Quinnipiac poll and 60% in a Washington Post-ABC News poll.
Trump is now averaging similar numbers across all polls, suggesting that more Americans than ever oppose Trump.
The trendline is consistent
President Donald Trump speaks to members of the media aboard Air Force One on April 17. – Ivan Bucci/Reuters
And perhaps even more troubling for Trump, his second-term trendline has been remarkably consistent — continuously down.
While it may be a common perception that Trump was very unpopular during his first term as president, he recovered from the lows of 2017 and spent most of his presidency with an approval rating in the low 40s, which is somewhat typical for presidents today. This includes before the 2018 midterm elections and his 2020 re-election run.
During his first term, Trump’s approval ratings were, for the most part, pretty flat.
But in his second term, those numbers have slowly but steadily dropped.
That trend predated the Iran war. But the war also appears to have reinforced some of Trump’s key liabilities, costing him the support of people he previously didn’t abandon.
A new high in the economy
A big reason for that seems to be his handling of the economy, which has been fueled by the Iran war — and soaring gas prices that have sent it to new lows.
To wit:
Inflation has long been Trump’s worst issue, with voters often saying he ignores concerns about rising costs. But increasingly, polls show there is some competition for that mantle from the Iran war.
An NBC poll showed two-thirds of Americans disapprove of Trump over the Iran war — just a tick below the 68% who don’t like how he’s handled inflation.
And a previous CNN poll showed 67% disapproved of Trump’s handling of Iran, compared with 69% for the economy and 72% for inflation.
He’s entering Bush’s territory
It is certainly possible that the trend line could change and a resolution to the Iran war could help Trump.
But if the president’s approval ratings solidify in the mid-30s, he’ll be in some pretty rare company. The area would be inhabited by only one person in recent decades: George W. Bush.
When Bush dropped into his 30s two decades ago, he was the first president since Jimmy Carter to do so continuously, according to Gallup data. Joe Biden, like Bush, spent some significant time in the 30s, but generally in the high 30s.
It is not uncommon for today’s presidents to be unpopular; Actually, it’s kind of normal.
But Trump is venturing into some unusual and dangerous political territory.
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