More than six weeks after he was declared the new Supreme Leader after his father’s assassination, Iranians have not seen or heard from Mojtaba Khamenei.
Amidst a conflict seen as an existential threat to the regime that has ruled his country for nearly half a century, Khamenei is conspicuously absent. Instead, statements attributed to the 56-year-old cleric have been posted on national television or social media. The regime has also used AI-generated videos to show Khamenei delivering messages, fueling speculation that the new supreme leader is incapacitated or abroad.
This is in contrast to his father, the late Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, who was the highly visible face of Iranian decision-making for decades. Under him, a week passed without a speech, without a ruling, without a carefully timed intervention.
A source told CNN last month that Khamenei suffered a broken leg, bruised left eye and minor cuts to his face in the attack that killed his father and Iran’s top military commanders.
Another Reuters report, citing unnamed sources, said he was attending meetings with senior officials via audio conferencing and was busy deciding on key issues, including the war and new talks with Washington.
Is Khamenei in the loop? Is he setting the standards, drawing the red lines his interlocutors need? Or is the office of leadership functionally vacant, and if so, who is calling the shots?
“Mojtaba is not really in a position to make critical decisions or micromanage negotiations,” says Ali Vej, Iran project director at the International Crisis Group, but “the system is using him to get final approval for key broad decisions and not negotiating strategies.”
“The system deliberately highlights Mojtaba’s involvement because it provides a safeguard against internal criticism … unlike his father who regularly comes out and comments on the state of negotiations,” he added. “Mojtaba is missing in action, so attributing ideas to him is a good cover for Iranian negotiators to shield themselves from criticism.”
‘a very practical man’
US President Donald Trump has called Iran’s regime change after the assassination of the elder Khamenei and now talks on Tehran’s behalf “proper”.
“We’re dealing with different people than we’ve dealt with before,” he said last month.
Pakistan Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif meets with Iranian Parliament Speaker Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf ahead of peace talks in Islamabad, Pakistan – Office of the Iranian Parliament / WANA / Reuters
Iran’s opaque political system makes finding answers even more difficult. But the longer Khamenei stays out of the public eye, the louder the questions will become.
One survivor of the US-Israeli purge of Iran’s political and military leadership was Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf, the country’s longtime parliament speaker, who led the first round of talks with the US in Islamabad.
The former Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps commander – who was involved in crushing a pro-reform student movement – has emerged as one of Iran’s few politicians able to deal with both diplomats in suits and soldiers in battle fatigues.
Ghalibaf joined Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi and a large delegation of Iranian officials in Islamabad in what appeared to be a deliberate attempt to signal unity.
While they negotiate for the regime’s survival abroad, at home they must manage a base that is increasingly wary of negotiations with the US and wants to inflict global pain as punishment for an attack on Iran.
Since the start of the war, Aadhaar has been taking to the streets in public demonstrations of support for a regime facing existential threats. But even as those supporters signal unity, they are scrutinizing the authorities’ every move as they seek to preserve the regime’s existence.
“If negotiations were difficult before the conflict, they are much more complicated now,” Danny Citrinowicz, an Iran expert at Israel’s Institute for National Security Studies, wrote in X. “Iran faces an increasingly decentralized, radicalized and ideologically rigid system, which interprets its resilience in the conflict as a divine victory.”
US Vice President J.D. Vance said the Iranian delegation would have to return home to seek approval from the Supreme Leader or “someone else” after last week’s talks ended without a deal.
Until now, a deal without the Supreme Leader’s blessing was not a deal that Iranian body politics could hold together. However, Iran may have entered a new phase where the leader’s visible buy-in is no longer necessary.
The apparent absence of the supreme leader has left Iran’s surviving politicians caught between two pressures — managing the ongoing fallout from Trump’s public comments (which have proven damaging to negotiations) and a hardline domestic base that sees any deal with the US as capitulation.
“It’s very difficult to manage … it’s a sign of a real dilemma,” Hamidreza Azizi, a visiting fellow at the German Institute for International and Security Affairs, told CNN’s Becky Anderson. “They need to walk a tightrope to balance all those domestic and external pressures.”
Fight for survival
This informal wartime arrangement, which has elevated some Iranian officials to leadership positions, has left even the regime’s most loyal supporters confused about who is making the decisions.
Last week, when Foreign Minister Araghchi declared the Strait of Hormuz open to commercial shipping, he came under fire from regime supporters who accused him of giving Trump an opportunity to declare victory.
“Iranian society is in confusion,” Fars News, a popular state-affiliated outlet, said after Araghchi’s announcement. Another state-affiliated outlet said the move “needs approval from the leadership, and authorities need to provide clarification on the matter.” Iran’s President Massoud Pezhekian also drew objections last month after he apologized to Arab neighbors and announced he would not attack them again.
A protester carries a picture of Iran’s late Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei in central Tehran on March 9 – Arezoo/Middle East Images/AFP/Getty Images
Such criticism of the media has increased speculation that there may be a fight between the politicians. But after Araghchi came under attack, Ghalibaf gave a national address to reassure the people that there was unity.
“This regime is not out of the woods yet,” said Baj. “It’s a fight for survival today and at any point they can go back to war, so they’re not in a position to go into a confrontation.”
For now, Iran’s new supreme leader, a man working from the shadows, is serving a useful purpose for the country’s veteran politicians.
“Attributing ideas to him even if they don’t necessarily agree with him is a good cover for Iranian negotiators to shield themselves from criticism,” Vaez said. “There is no counter from a man missing in action.”
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