NEW YORK (AP) — The number of Americans signing up for Affordable Care Act health insurance for 2026 is moderately higher than at the same time last year, preliminary new federal data show, even as subsidies end at the end of 2025 and coverage will be more expensive for many.
At face value, data from the Centers for Medicare and Medicaid Services appears to defy predictions that more Americans are facing costly plans that will drop out of marketplace coverage entirely next year. But experts caution that the numbers are an incomplete snapshot of total enrollment, which could still show a decline by the end of the open enrollment period.
“Overall, it’s too early to know what that means,” said Jason Levitis, a senior fellow in the Urban Institute’s health policy division.
Figures released Friday show that through the 29 days of the window for Americans to shop for Affordable Care Act plans this year, about 5.8 million people had chosen one. That’s about 400,000 more enrollments than last year’s 30 days of open enrollment.
Meanwhile, this year’s enrollment numbers are down 1.5 million from the 7.3 million or more people who signed up in 32 days during the open enrollment period two years ago, showing some year-to-year fluctuations in how people sign up for coverage.
In most states, for Americans who want to start coverage on January 1, the window to shop for Affordable Care Act coverage begins on November 1 and ends on December 15. People who want to start their coverage later can continue to select plans until January 15.
Five years ago, about 12 million people chose an Affordable Care Act plan. Enhanced tax credits were introduced the following year and enrollment doubled to more than 24 million four years later. Today, millions of people benefit from enhanced subsidies — and if they end as expected in the new year, the average person receiving the subsidies will see their annual premiums more than double, according to the health care research nonprofit KFF.
The tax credits have been at the center of fierce debate in Congress in recent weeks, with Democrats calling for them to be expanded to help Americans with rising health care costs. The Senate is expected to vote this week on a Democratic proposal to extend the subsidies without major changes. But incumbent Republicans have already rejected that proposal, and hopes for any extension are dwindling as many Republicans oppose it.
Experts said there are a variety of possible explanations for this year’s enrollment numbers tracking so far, with the Affordable Care Act dominating health insurance news as Congress debates a fix for expiring subsidies.
Another factor is that older, sicker people tend to choose their health plans during the enrollment period because they know they will be purchasing coverage regardless of cost. Americans on the fence about repeal, meanwhile, may be considering their options or waiting to see if Congress comes up with a last-minute extension of expiring subsidies.
The Urban Institute’s Levitis noted that people may be switching high-end plans for less expensive plans that have deductibles and only later cancellations, which could delay the effect of subsidies that expire on enrollment.
“All this stuff takes a while to spread through the system,” he said.
Joe Antos, a health economist at the business-oriented American Enterprise Institute, said Republicans will try to tout the latest data as evidence that the expiration of subsidies will not have a negative impact on people who can afford health coverage.
But “that doesn’t change what politicians in red states know,” Antos said, adding that many Republicans in weak U.S. House districts are aware that they could face a backlash from working-class constituents next year if the expansion doesn’t go through.
