Airbnb to benefit from ‘healthy’ travel conditions, analyst says ahead of Q4 earnings – Airbnb (NASDAQ:ABNB)

Airbnb to benefit from ‘healthy’ travel conditions, analyst says ahead of Q4 earnings – Airbnb (NASDAQ:ABNB)


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Airbnb Inc (NASDAQ:ABNB) will report fourth quarter (Q4) earnings on February 13th.

Wall Street expects 64 cents in EPS and $2.16 billion in revenue.

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Here’s what BofA Securities awaits Airbnb’s fourth-quarter earnings report, set for release after market hours.

Airbnb analyst: BofA Securities has a Neutral rating on Airbnb stock and a $155 price target that implies negligible upside.

Airbnb’s stock valuation is based on a 20x multiple of 2025E EBITDA, consistent with BofA Securities’ valuation approach for other major travel/transportation choices such as Uber Technologies Inc (NYSE:UBER).

The Airbnb Investment Thesis: BofA Securities expects Airbnb’s 4Q results to cite strong bookings in November and December. Their analysis suggests possible positive trends in average daily rates (ADR) and room nights, with an expectation to meet or beat fourth quarter estimates.

“We saw an increase in travel trends (with healthy ADRs) since Airbnb led in early November, and AirDNA estimates suggest an increase in the fourth quarter,” the analysts wrote.


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One of the main points is the revision of the 2024 estimates, which is attributed to the anticipated benefits of cross-currency transaction fees. BofA Securities raised revenue estimates for the second quarter through the fourth quarter of 2024 by $270 million, factoring in higher ADRs and changes in guest fees.

Airbnb’s high take rates and financial discipline are seen as upside potential, along with the prospect of increased revenue from new fee structures.

Despite accepting positive things such as Airbnb’s increased market share over hotels, strong supply growth and pricing power, BofA Securities maintains a Neutral rating based on concerns. Analysts are cautious about:

  • Possible slowdown in the industry in 2024,
  • ADR headwinds,
  • Strong competition from Booking Holdings Inc (NASDAQ:BKNG) and Expedia Group Inc (NASDAQ:EXPE) promoting Vrbo,
  • New urban regulations affecting Airbnb listings and
  • Stock valuation premium compared to online travel agency (OTA) peers.

Also Read: Expedia’s Booking & Profit Rating: Read How These Online Travel Stocks Stay Under This Analyst’s Radar

BofA Securities remains cautious on perceived risks to the industry’s trajectory to 2024 and valuation concerns. Investors are advised to weigh potential upside against perceived risks when evaluating San Francisco-based Airbnb as an investment opportunity.

ABNB price action: Shares of Airbnb were trading at $154.51 at press time.

Read more: Unlocking the future: Airbnb’s latest acquisition of an AI startup sparks investor excitement

Image: Shutterstock


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