Analysis – A Venezuela-style crackdown on Taiwan’s leader could prove difficult for China

By Greg Torode and Yimou Li

HONG KONG/TAIPEI, Jan 9 (Reuters) – Some Chinese online users are calling for a lightning strike on Taiwan’s leaders to seize the island, Venezuela-style, but analysts, scholars and security officials say China’s modernizing military is not yet ready.

In Taiwan, they say, China’s military has an enemy that has been preparing for years for a “beheading operation” against its leaders, as well as extensive air defense and radar capabilities, as well as potential support from the United States and its allies.

Although China has spent years acquiring advanced weaponry, there are questions about the People’s Liberation Army’s ability to use it effectively, as well as the command structure that binds them together in combat.

Chen Kuan-ting, a lawmaker from Taiwan’s ruling Democratic People’s Party, said, “Once such an operation goes into trouble, it will turn into a full-scale conflict with extremely high political and military risks.”

Taiwan’s layered air-defense and early-warning systems mean any airstrike or special-operations infiltration attempt would be vulnerable to detection while crossing the Taiwan Strait, foreshadowing the escalation, he added.

The United States demonstrated its military’s battle-tested air superiority with last weekend’s operation to oust Venezuelan President Nicolas Maduro and his wife.

Its military controlled the skies with stealth fighters, jets that jammed enemy defenses, and stealthy reconnaissance drones and satellites that fed commanders real-time intelligence.

In contrast, the PLA “still has clear gaps in actual joint-operations experience, electro-magnetic and electronic-warfare capabilities, and actual combat verification of high-risk missions,” Chen said.

China’s defense ministry did not immediately respond to faxed questions from Reuters.

China has not ruled out using force to occupy Taiwan

China, which claims democratically-ruled Taiwan as its territory, has not ruled out using force to bring the island under its control. Taiwan’s government has rejected China’s claims.

“Operationally, while the PLA has been trying to get up to speed with force integration in recent times, it’s still baby steps compared to what the Americans have been accumulating for decades,” said Colin Koh, a Singapore-based security scholar.

Taiwan is determined to protect its sovereignty and boost its defenses, President Lai Ching-te said last month after Beijing fired rockets toward Taiwan as part of its latest military drills.

The exercises around Taiwan – the most extensive to date – were accompanied by a strong message from Chinese officials and the military.

“Any external power that interferes in Taiwan affairs or meddles in China’s internal affairs will surely smash its head against the iron wall of the Chinese People’s Liberation Army,” China’s Taiwan Affairs Office said in a statement.

In October, Lai unveiled a multi-layered air-defense system called the “T-Dome.”

It is similar to Israel’s “Iron Dome”, more efficient for a higher kill rate and with a “sensor-to-shooter” mechanism that integrates weapons from Taiwan-developed Sky Bow missiles to US-supplied HIMARS rocket systems.

In July, Taiwan’s military conducted drills to protect Taipei’s main airport from hostile landings.

Su Ju-yun, a researcher at Taiwan’s National Defense and Security Institute, described significant defenses around Taipei, including long-range missiles on nearby mountains, short-range weapons at the entrance to the Tamsui River and military police equipped with shoulder-fired Stinger missiles.

“Overall, it forms a complete defensive perimeter,” Su said.

Maduro extraction inspires some

Military aides say China has war-gamed withdrawal operations in Taipei over a wide range of military options to take control of Taiwan, with some Chinese online users citing US actions in Venezuela as inspiration.

“The situation in Venezuela has provided us with a solution to unify Taiwan,” said one user on the X-like microblogging site Weibo.

“First, use special operations to arrest Lai Ching-te, then immediately declare the occupation of Taiwan, issue a new identity card … and achieve a swift and decisive victory.”

Chen, who sits on Taiwan’s parliament’s foreign affairs and defense committee, dismissed such comments as “imaginary,” and other analysts said any such effort would immediately face harsh military realities.

China has added aircraft to replicate platforms such as Boeing’s EA-18G Growler electronic-warfare jet and Northrop Grumman’s E-2D Advanced Hawkeye command and early-warning aircraft, but their precise capabilities have yet to be defined, Koh said.

As the ruling Communist Party still plays a role in the PLA’s command structure, its effectiveness is doubted, Singapore’s S. added Koh of the Rajaratnam School of International Studies.

“A decentralized command-and-control hierarchy is essential; one that allows regional commanders to take the necessary initiatives to deal with the fluid, evolving and uncertain nature of military operations as they arise,” Koh said.

Despite any perceived PLA shortcomings, Taiwan’s leaders are taking no chances.

“We don’t have the capital to take them lightly,” said a senior Taiwan security official, who spoke on condition of anonymity because the military issues are sensitive.

“In any case, in view of this painful and shocking experience, China will also seek all kinds of measures to overcome these problems.”

(Reporting by Greg Torode in Hong Kong and Yimou Li in Taipei; Additional reporting by Laurie Chen, Tiffany Le and Beijie Newsroom; Editing by Clarence Fernandez)