Silver has surged higher in a key run amid tighter export controls in China and meme-stock-style buying by Main Street investors hoping to squeeze out bearish bets.
The precious metal has rallied 249% over the past year, including a 47% year-to-date jump, but not everyone thinks silver is headed for a rally.
Former JP Morgan strategist Marko Kolanovic and famous Wall Street traders Peter Brandt Both sounded the alarm on Silver in separate posts on X (formerly Twitter) this week.
The stakes are high for investors, as silver prices have gone parabolic, climbing in a straight line, sparking animal spirits among those hoping to reap even bigger gains.
However, new buyers should note that precious metals are notorious for boom-and-bust moves, making new positions riskier now than they were months ago.
Some analysts are skeptical of silver’s recent growth spurt.Shutterstock” loading=”eager” height=”540″ width=”960″ class=”yf-lglytj loader”/>
Some analysts are skeptical of silver’s recent rise.Shutterstock ·Shutterstock
On January 1, China designated silver as a strategic resource alongside rare earth minerals. The move bans the export of silver, requiring a license that has been difficult to obtain. Only 44 companies are eligible for silver export licenses as China seeks to guarantee supplies of next-gen solar, EV and electronics technologies.
The move fueled a rally seen last year, fueled by growing enthusiasm for industrial demand for high-tech applications and, more generally, growing interest among investors eager to diversify their portfolios by owning silver ETFs, such as: iShares Silver Trust (SLV), or physical silver, such as coins and bars.
The numbers are really huge. Silver’s move has lifted the market size $6 trillion. To put that figure into perspective, Nvidia, Apple, and Alphabet boast market caps of $4.5 trillion, $3.75 trillion, and $4 trillion, respectively.
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Everyone wants to take action.
26th of January iShares Silver Trust Exchange-traded funds have a turnover of nearly $40 billion, according to Bloomberg. SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY), the go-to ETF for the 500 most influential publicly traded companies. That’s about it 20x This was above average for most of last year.
Such moves are not common, and they are often warning shots that investors should heed. I’ve been tracking the markets for over 30 years, and I’ve seen more than my fair share of jaw-dropping pops that eventually turned into drops.
I’m not alone in worrying that recent moves are setting up the opposite.
Former JPMorgan strategist Marko Kolanovic, whose career spans 20-plus years and includes roles at Merrill Lynch and Bear Stearns before a 16-year run at JPMorgan that helped him join the Institutional Investor Hall of FameDeliver a blunt silver forecast at X.
Kolanovic says the rally faces existential risks that will eventually cause the bubble to burst.
“Unlike purely notional assets like NFTs, bubbles in commodities don’t last long—industry demand dries up, supply (eg, recycling) increases, and new production hedges,” Kolanovic wrote.
Experienced trader Peter Brand, Perhaps best known for being featured in Jack Schwager’s “Unknown Market Wizards: The Best Traders You’ve Never Heard Of.”
Brandt began trading commodities in 1976 with Conti Commodity Services, a division of Continental Grain Company, where he handled institutional accounts for major consumer goods companies, including Campbell Soup.
He founded his prop trading firm, Factor Trading Company, in 1980, wrote “Trading Commodity Futures with Classical Chart Patterns” in 1990 and then “Diary of a Professional Commodity Trader” in 2011. Needless to say, he knows a thing or two about commodities, including silver.
At X, Brand offered a series of warnings, with recent silver trades reflecting action at the peak of the last silver boom in 2011.
“Today, nearly 2 years of world production traded on world exchanges. More than 1.5 billion ounces. The last time such a proportion was traded was April 25, 2011, the day of the top,” Brandt wrote.
Brand had earlier rightly called for a drop in silver prices on April 24, 2011.
Manias are hard to get at the moment because surges and dips tend to go further than many expect. Many silver bulls argue that the game changed in January when China banned exports and the US government added silver to its critical minerals list.
I’ve learned in my decades in the markets that some of the most dangerous words in the English language when it comes to investing are “this time is different.”
Related: Silver Surge Mask Calm Risk
Kolanovic and Brandt seem to agree. No one knows when the silver rally will fade, but history can provide a clue. For example, the Hunt Brothers In the 1980s, silver tried to carve out a market, with prices ranging from about $6 an ounce to about $50.
That ended very badly for the hunters and those who chased them into silver. The silver market collapsed after the COMEX implemented “Silver Rule 7”, banning purchases of silver on margin, triggering massive margin calls and forced selling that wiped out 90% of silver’s value within two years.
In 2011, when the brand was warning of risks for silver, prices hovered near $50 as a weak dollar fueled buying. Again, exchanges implemented margin changes, hiking requirements until the bubble burst.
History does not repeat itself, as Twain thought, but it often rhymes. As Kolanovic points out, additional supply, including holders selling physical silver, margin requirement changes, or silver miners selling future production, could derail silver’s epic run.
Related: Robert Kiyosaki lays out new gold price target
This story was originally published by TheStreet on January 27, 2026, where it first appeared in the Investing section. Add TheStreet as a preferred source by clicking here.
