The Strait of Hormuz has become a focal point of the US-Israeli war with Iran after Tehran effectively choked one of the world’s most important shipping lanes, carrying a fifth of the world’s oil and liquid natural gas.
A two-week truce was agreed on Tuesday evening on the condition that “safe passage” through the strait was guaranteed – but a BBC-certified analysis shows that only a few ships have passed through.
The standoff has sent shock waves through the global economy over the past five weeks, pushing up energy prices and exposing how unreliable international supply chains are in the strait, which is only 33km (21 miles) wide at its narrowest point.
Along with energy, the Gulf is also important for transporting chemicals needed to process products such as microchips, pharmaceuticals and fertilizers.
Oil prices fell on news of the cease-fire, but shipping analysts cautioned to expect only a crossing move for now.
“Many shipping lines want to have details and assurances about what actually takes place in transit and those details are not available,” Vespucci Maritime’s Lars Jensen told the BBC.
Since the ceasefire came into effect, shipping brokerage firm SSY has confirmed to the BBC that ships in the Gulf have received warnings from Iran’s navy that any vessels attempting to cross without permission will be “targeted and destroyed”.
[BBC]
As of 14:00 BST on 8 April only three tankers – NJ Earth, Daytona Beach and Hai Long 1 – had passed through the strait since the ceasefire was announced on Tuesday night.
That’s based on BBC-certified analysis of ship tracking data from MarineTraffic.
That compares with the 138 ships that passed through the strait each day, on average, before the conflict began on 28 February.
We don’t know if the three ships that crossed on Wednesday were a result of the truce or if they had planned to sail.
“It’s still too early to say whether this reflects a broader ceasefire-driven reopening or a previously approved exception,” says Ana Subasic of shipping analyst firm Kepler.
“Nothing has really changed yet,” Jensen adds, arguing that it will take time before parties are confident enough to cross safely.
That view was echoed by Richard Mead, editor-in-chief of Lloyd’s List, who said it was a “very dangerous” time for shipowners who still faced a huge amount of uncertainty.
“We know that Iran essentially still controls the straits, and that ship owners still have to get permission from the IRGC. [Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps]… And how this is going to work is not yet clear.”
BBC Verify’s analysis of the routes taken by the three ships shows that they entered its territorial waters through a strait close to Iran’s coastline.
Before the conflict, ships often took a southerly route through the middle of the waterway.
‘About 800 ships stranded’
If crossings resume, Mead expects stranded tankers fully loaded with cargo to be the first.
“You have about 800 ships stuck there for several weeks. Most of them are loaded with cargo now, so getting them out will be a priority.”
The duration of the ceasefire – set for two weeks – also brings uncertainty for ships, says Niels Rasmussen, shipping analyst at BIMCO.
“I suspect there will be a large movement of ships in the Gulf … because they don’t want to risk being stranded after the two-week window closes.”
Another uncertainty is the possibility of sea mines, says Thomas Kazakos, secretary-general of the International Chamber of Shipping.
“We need to make sure we have clear confirmation that safety of navigation for ships and seafarers is being agreed,” he told BBC Verify.
Toll payment
On top of these concerns, ships face the uncertainty of having to pay Iran to secure safe passage – following reports that tolls could be part of a ceasefire deal.
“The position of the Iranian negotiations seems to be that you have to pay a toll to go through the strait and shipping lines will be reluctant to go down that toll road,” Jensen says.
Some countries, including India, Malaysia and the Philippines, have negotiated safe passage for their ships in recent weeks.
But paying the tolls could present additional complications for other countries and shipping companies because the payment “could actually be in violation of U.S. sanctions on Iran which would have other implications for shipping lines,” Jensen adds.
The sanctions work by criminalizing payments to individuals, companies and organisations, explains shipping lawyer James Turner of Quadrant Chamber.
He told BBC Verify that the sanction is violated when payments are made to someone on the list, so paying them tolls would be a violation unless the US made an exception.
Despite the lack of crossing so far, the market has responded positively in the hours since the ceasefire.
Benchmark Brent crude fell by around 13% to $94.80 (£70.73) a barrel, while US-traded oil fell more than 15% to $95.75.
However, Mead says expectations still need to be tempered.
“Oil prices responded because it’s a positive directional move, but I don’t think it in any way suggests that we’ll see 20% of global energy returning to normal levels anytime soon.”
Additional reporting by Tamara Kovacevic
[BBC]
What claims would you like BBC Verify to investigate?
