Do recent earthquakes make the ‘Big One’ more likely? What do scientists say?

Over the past few days, the Coachella Valley has experienced more than 20 earthquakes, causing concern among some residents.

A 4.9 magnitude earthquake was reported 12 miles north of Indio on the evening of Monday, January 20, the first moderate-sized earthquake to hit the area in some time.

After several smaller aftershocks, a large, 4.3-magnitude earthquake woke many residents from their sleep at 12:30 a.m., Wednesday, January 21.

With Californians constantly worried about “The Big One” — a major earthquake expected by some measures to hit the country’s West Coast — it’s understandable that some would be a little more concerned.

However, experts say the latest moderate earthquake in India is relatively normal for the region. All earthquakes since the initial wave have followed the normal aftershock pattern.

“It’s going about as you would expect, the normal post-4.9 decay,” said Kate Scarer, a research geologist with the US Geological Survey. “If you have a 4.9, you can get 10 or so magnitude threes in the next week.”

It is not unheard of for earthquakes to be retroactively called “foreshocks” for the main event. In 1992, the 7.3 magnitude Landers earthquake was preceded by a 6.1 magnitude earthquake in Joshua Tree more than a month earlier.

Still, statistically speaking, such an event is highly unlikely.

According to the USGS, each earthquake has a 5% chance of an earthquake of equal or greater magnitude within a week. A magnitude 4.9 earthquake in Indio has a 1 percent chance of a magnitude 7 or greater, Schaer said.

“This is what we expect from the region,” he added. “We should expect these earthquakes to happen.”

Error lines

The latest cluster of earthquakes occurred along a little-known fault line under Birdoo Canyon, a backcountry road that runs through Joshua Tree National Park.

About eight miles from the San Andreas fault, recent earthquakes may be far enough away to not interact with it, but that’s impossible to predict.

One of the reasons geologists are interested in the interaction between fault lines is that the San Andreas Fault is a time frame for major earthquakes. There has been no significant rupture along the San Andreas Fault for nearly 300 years.

That’s a little longer than average, but not unheard of, according to Scharer.

“It’s a really good reminder that someday there will be a big earthquake that will be very challenging for your community or city,” she said. “And so it’s a good reminder to just stop and ask what do you need to do to be more prepared for an earthquake?”

What should I do during an earthquake?

In the event of an earthquake, experts urge people to “leave, cover and hold on.” That’s mostly to prevent them from being crushed by heavy objects.

Avoid falling when falling on the ground. Covering the head and neck protects the sensitive parts of the body. Experts recommend that people crawl under tables or desks if they are nearby.

Why do earthquakes occur?

Earth has four layers: inner core, outer core, mantle and crust. The crust and upper part of the mantle form another region called the “lithosphere,” which acts like a skin around the Earth’s surface, USA Today reported.

However, the lithosphere is not in one piece and exists like a puzzle or a series of pieces, according to the United States Geological Survey. These parts of the lithosphere are not stationary and move slowly. They are called “tectonic plates”.

As tectonic plates move and move past each other, they sometimes collide or collide. This puts stress on the edge of the plate. When the stress is too great, it creates cracks called “faults”. The point where these faults move against each other is called a “fault line”.

When there is too much friction between fault lines, energy is suddenly released, triggering seismic waves that cause earthquakes.

What is the largest earthquake in recorded California history?

The largest recorded earthquake in California since 1800, classified by magnitude, according to the California Department of Conservation.

• 7.9: January 9, 1857 Two killed at Fort Tejon; A 220-mile surface scar was created

• 7.8: April 18, 1906 possibly 3,000 killed in San Francisco; 225,000 displaced

• 7.4: March 26, 1872 in Owens Valley. 27 killed; Three aftershocks of magnitude 6>

• 7.4: November 8, 1980 Just west of Eureka Injured 6; $2 million in damages

• 7.3: July 21, 1952 12 killed in Kern County; Five days included three magnitude 6 plus aftershocks

• 7.3: 28 June 1992 at Landers. One death; 400 injured; $9.1 million in damages

• 7.2: Mendocino 22 January 1923. Houses were damaged in some cities

• 7.2: April 25, 1992 at Cape Mendocino. 356 injuries; $48.3 million in damages

• 7.1: November 4, 1927 southwest of Lompoc. No major injuries, moderate damage in two counties

• 7.1: October 16, 1999 in Ludlow. Minimal damage due to remote location

When will the next earthquake hit California?

It is currently not possible to predict earthquakes, although USGS scientists can calculate “the probability of a certain number of earthquakes occurring in a given area,” according to the USGS.

Although earthquake forecasts and probabilities can be determined, the USGS says those reports are “comparable to climate probabilities and weather forecasts” and are not the same as predictions.

USGS maps show that parts of California have a greater than 95% chance of experiencing a minor or more damaging earthquake in 100 years. In other words, an earthquake strong enough on the Modified Mercali Intensity Scale to “feel” all will move some heavy furniture and cause light damage.

No, California Earthquake Won’t ‘Fall Into The Sea’

Hours before Monday’s quake, the Berkeley Seismology Laboratory posted an informative thread about California and earthquakes, hypothesizing that California would eventually rupture and fall into the ocean.

“This is because earthquakes in California cause horizontal motion, not giant sinkholes or land falls into the ocean,” the lab shared on X. “No part of California sits on the “edge” of a sudden rupture,” the lab said.

This means that the state will not separate, sink or disappear in the Pacific region. Earthquakes, the lab says, and coastlines will slowly change over millions of years, “but the land isn’t suddenly going anywhere.”

This article originally appeared in the Palm Springs Desert Sun: Do recent earthquakes make ‘the big one’ more likely? What do scientists say?