Europe has withdrawn from Trump’s New World Order

President Donald Trump’s first year back in office shattered any remaining illusions among European leaders that he could be managed or controlled.

His open hostility to the European Union has strained the transatlantic alliance dating back to World War II and deepened rifts between Europe’s national leaders and those within the bloc, threatening Trump’s ability to respond to threats and taunts.

That leaves Ukraine’s fate hanging in the balance until 2026, not to mention unanswered existential questions about European security, at a time when many fear Russian President Vladimir Putin’s regional ambitions will extend west beyond Ukraine.

But in many ways, Europe has escaped the roller coaster – for now.

“Europeans cannot cut ties and hand over divorce papers because they are still too dependent, especially when it comes to security and the US military commitment to defend Europe,” said Jana Puglierin, senior policy fellow at the European Council on Foreign Relations.

But, she continued, efforts by leaders to maintain a solid relationship with the U.S. based on short-term interests over the past year have not made it clear that long-term interests are not aligned for now.

“We need to be very clear-eyed,” she said. “In the old days, there was a clear mainstream understanding of the old transatlantic relationship underpinned by Western values ​​and norms and principles, a rules-based international order. And now I think we see a competing project emerging.”

The administration is also looking forward to the new year.

It sees a continent losing its values ​​and identity, seeing liberal ideals doing more to threaten European security than any White House missive. A friend’s job, the White House argues — as it pushes Europe to spend more on its own defense, restrict immigration and end the war in Ukraine — is to set it straight.

“President Trump has a good relationship with many European leaders, but he never shies away from presenting hard truths,” said White House spokeswoman Anna Kelly. “The devastating effects of uncontrolled immigration, and the inability of those immigrants to assimilate, are a concern not only for President Trump, but also for Europeans, who are making immigration one of their top concerns. These open border policies have led to widespread instances of violence, an increase in crime, and more with damaging effects on social security programs.

After a murky start to the year with Vice President JD Vance Europe Lecture on Free Speech in Munich And then Tag-teaming Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky With Trump in the Oval Office, Europeans have adjusted to Trump’s worldview — a shift, As Romania’s Nikusor Dan explained“A very practical and economical way of doing things from an ethical way of doing things” – and succeeded in bringing the White House back on many fronts.

Submitted to EU trade, accepted a new tariff of 15 percent, limiting the short-term economic damage. NATO has pleased Trump by promising to increase defense spending by 5 percent over the next decade. It was cemented at the June summit — Thanks for allowing existing, non-defense spending to count for 1.5 percent of that new total.

Instead of abandoning Ukraine, Trump agreed in July to provide more defense aid as long as Europe paid for its war with Russia. And Europeans are able to cope Trump’s August meeting with Putin Alaska and the administration announced a 28-point peace plan that they have worked out in secret with the Kremlin, which they have worked with the U.S. and Ukraine to revise.

in one Interview with POLITICO earlier this monthTrump criticized European leaders as “weak”, insisting they “don’t know what to do”, particularly on immigration. He questioned whether European leaders should become allies, saying “it depends on their policies” and that he would not hesitate to intervene in European elections to support the far-right parties that challenge the current coalition and leaders.

It coincided with that Issuing a new national security strategy which called for “cultivating resistance” to “civilizational suicidal” European centrism and expressed disdain for the European Union, which the administration labeled as “hostile” to American economic interests.

Constanze Stelzenmüller, senior fellow at the Center for the United States and Europe at the Brookings Institution, called the Europe sections of the new NSS a “game changer” for leaders across the Atlantic that “permanently altered” long-term strategy with the US.

“It cannot be understated how shocking it is to European leaders and the public to read the Europe chapter of the National Security Strategy and see in writing that this administration considers Europe or European political centrists incredibly supportive and is taking such an antagonism against them,” she said. “For 2026, we have to buckle up and plan for the worst on all counts. We have clear vulnerabilities, and those will be exploited.”

Trump is ending the year by reminding Europe of his brazen desire, during his first term and again shortly before his second inauguration, to wrest control of Greenland from Denmark, a staunch NATO ally whose per capita defense spending is the highest of all member states. On Saturday he Governor of Louisiana appointed Jeff Landry as special envoy for GreenlandLandry’s work said Will focus on efforts to “make Greenland part of America”.

“This is shattering for many countries that thought nothing was more secure than their bilateral relationship with the United States,” Stelzenmüller said.

While openly threatening Denmark, the administration has pushed back on the European Union by breaking away from the 27-nation bloc and suggesting the countries could get better trade deals by engaging bilaterally with the White House.

“At the end of the year, the fundamental question facing the Europeans is whether they have enough strategic victories to win the strategic war, enough to sustain the transatlantic alliance that has stood for eight decades,” said Ivo Dalder, the US ambassador to NATO under President Barack Obama.

German Chancellor Friedrich Merz, who earlier this month declared “Pax Americana” dead, said last week that it had become “very clear” that Trump “cannot have a relationship” with the EU and that “at least there are individual member states, including Germany, of course, that can continue such cooperation.”

Merger led a failed push in Brussels last week to recycle $200 billion of EU money seized on Russian assets seized on loans to Ukraine, rejected by Belgium, Italy and others. But he eventually succeeded with a back-up plan of sorts, viz The EU has approved a $90 billion loan for Ukraine Aiming to keep his army on the battlefield for two more years. Three Trump-aligned leaders in Hungary, Slovakia and the Czech Republic backed out of the debt but did not block its passage.

While Trump has quietly opposed EU efforts to shore up Ukraine’s war chest, Europeans have supported his diplomatic efforts to end the war by pushing for stronger security guarantees to ensure Ukraine’s long-term survival. Finnish President Alexander Stubb appeared on Fox News on Sunday to announce Trump’s efforts have helped move the talks “closer.” [to a peace deal] “More than at any time in this war,” a comment seems aimed at a rhetorical audience and loosely based on what most European leaders actually believe.