CONAKRY, Guinea (AP) — As Guineans vote Sunday to elect a new president in the country’s first election since a 2021 coup, analysts say a weakened opposition will make a possible victory for junta leader Gen. Mamadi Dumbouia.
Sunday’s election is the culmination of a transition process that began four years ago after Domboya ousted President Alpha Conde. The junta leader has moved to stifle the main opposition and dissent, critics say, with no major opposition among the eight other candidates in the race.
As the world’s largest exporter of bauxite, despite Guinea’s rich mineral resources – used to make aluminum – more than half of its 15 million people experience record levels of poverty and food insecurity, according to the World Food Programme.
“This vote is hope for young people, especially for us unemployed,” said Idrissa Kamara, 18, from Conakry, who said she had been unemployed since graduating from university five years ago. “I am forced to do strange things to survive. I hope this vote will improve the standard of living and the quality of life in Guinea,” he added.
The election is about to be held according to the new constitution which abolishes the ban on military leaders from running for office and extends the term of office of the president from five to seven years. That constitution was overwhelmingly approved in a September referendum, despite opposition parties urging voters to boycott it.
The vote is the latest in an uptick in insurgency in African countries in recent years. At least 10 countries on the young continent have experienced military takeovers after accused elected leaders of failing to provide good governance and security to citizens.
“This election will open a new page in Guinea’s history and signal the country’s return to the League of Nations,” said Guinean political analyst Aboubacar Sidiqi Diakite. “Dumbouya is the undisputed favorite in this presidential election as the main opposition political parties are sidelined and the Directorate General of Elections, the body overseeing the presidential election, is under the government’s watch,” he added.
Besides a weak opposition, activists and rights groups say Guinea has seen civil society leaders silenced, critics kidnapped and the press censored since the coup. More than 50 political parties were disbanded last year in a move the authorities claimed to “clean the political chessboard” despite widespread criticism.
Security was tight in Conakry and other parts of Guinea, with 12,000 police officers deployed and checkpoints on major roads. Officials said Saturday that security forces had “neutralized” an armed group with “subversive intent to threaten national security” after gunfire was heard in Conakry’s Sonfonia neighborhood.
At polling stations, long lines of mostly young voters waited to cast their ballots while police officers closely monitored the process.
A total of nine candidates are running, and Dumbuya’s closest challenger is the little-known Yero Balde of Guinea’s Democratic Front party, who was education minister under Conde.
Two opposition candidates, former Prime Minister Lansana Kouyate and former government minister Ousmane Kaba, were excluded on technical grounds, while long-time opposition leaders Selou Deline Diallo and Sidiya Toure were exiled.
While Balde has anchored his campaign on promises of governance reform, anti-corruption efforts and economic growth, Dumbouya has built on the massive infrastructure projects and reforms he launched since coming to power four years ago.
The junta’s most important project is the Simandou iron ore project, a 75% Chinese-owned mega-mining project at the world’s largest iron ore deposit that began production last month after decades of delays.
Officials said that the national development plan linked to the Simandou project aims to create tens of thousands of jobs and diversify the economy by investing in agriculture, education, transport, technology and health.
“In four years, he (Dumbouya) has connected the youth of Guinea with information and communication technologies,” said Mamadama Touré, a high school student wearing a T-shirt with an image of Dumbouya in the capital of Conakry, citing digital skills training programs held by authorities.
About 6.7 million registered voters are expected to cast their ballots at nearly 24,000 polling stations nationwide, with results expected within 48 hours. If no candidate gets a majority, the second round of elections will be held.
In Conakry, 22-year-old student Isatou Bah said he was still unsure whether to vote in the election.
“This is the third time I have voted in Guinea, hoping that the situation will change. But nothing has changed,” said Bah, adding, “I hope the election will improve,” a country where everything is but struggling to take off.
