How do airlines decide who to bump when flights are overbooked?

If you think booking a flight guarantees you a seat on the plane, I’m sorry to break it to you: it doesn’t. You’ve probably heard of overbooked flights, but it’s easy to forget that they’re still quite a thing. Overbooking occurs when airlines oversell flights and more passengers show up than seats. When that happens, some passengers may be denied boarding.

Why do airlines do this, and how do they decide who to bump? Here’s what to know:

This is why airlines overbook flights

Since no-shows and last-minute changes are so common, airlines overbook flights to avoid empty seats. For example, many business travelers change their plans at the last minute. And if you’re on a connecting flight and miss it due to a delay, the airline may have an empty seat.

Instead of taking that loss, airlines overbook flights to account for those gaps instead of raising prices across the board. In the US, overbooking is legal and regulated by the Department of Transportation (DOT), so it’s still pretty much a thing.

How do airlines choose who to compete with?

They ask for volunteers

At first, airlines will ask volunteers to give up their seats. You’ll usually see staff at the gate looking for people who don’t mind flying later in exchange for compensation, usually cash, vouchers or travel credit.

If not enough people accept, the airlines can increase the offer until they get enough volunteers. If they still can’t find enough people, this is when things start to get serious and the situation escalates to involuntary denied boarding, where passengers are selected and bumped against their will.

They review the check-in time

Airlines generally follow internal “boarding priority” rules regarding who gets bumped first. Check-in timing is one of the main factors they use to force someone off a flight. According to the DOT, airlines have the right to decide their own selection process when involuntary bumping occurs.

When it comes to check-in time, late check-in travelers are usually the first to get bumped. So, if you want to avoid that on your next trip, make sure to check in as soon as it opens, usually 24 hours before departure. It is a good idea to arrive at the airport on time and be at the gate before boarding begins.

They look at ticket types

Yes, your wallet talks. Airlines care about how much you pay. As a result, if you book a low fare (aka basic economy), you’re more likely to be bumped into an overbooked flight. Meanwhile, those who have paid for business class, first class or flexible tickets and paid a lot more are very unlikely to be touched.

Some carriers, such as Delta, clearly state in their policies that fare class is part of the boarding priority system they use to decide who to bump into.

They frequently check flight status

Loyalty pays. When things go sideways on an overbooked flight, that loyalty can quietly secure your seat. This means elite frequent flyers are often prioritized and protected. If you get status, you’re basically in safe territory. Frequent flyer programs are designed to provide high-value customers with benefits such as priority boarding, upgrades and priority treatment during disruptions. This also applies to overbooking situations.

They consider routes, connections and final destinations

This is a logical one. Passengers with tight or complex connections are generally safe. Why? Because bumping them can trigger a domino effect. There will be missed flights, operational chaos, rebooking headaches, hotel costs and more problems that airlines want to avoid.

On the other hand, nonstop passengers, or those flying directly from destination A to destination B without connecting, are easier to move. Airlines can rebook them very quickly. The final destination also plays a role, as international itineraries are more sensitive. Long-distance and cross-border journeys are difficult and costly to resolve if they are disrupted.

They think through group size and seating logistics

Some airline policies, such as those of Air Canada, expressly give priority to passengers traveling with family members, unaccompanied minors or people with special needs. This helps avoid alienating groups or creating more complex situations. So yes, being a solo traveler can sometimes work against you, as you are more likely to be bumped into an overbooked flight.