How investors should view the new Tesla as it leaves EVs behind

That’s the takeaway from this morning’s brief, that you can Sign up To receive in your inbox every morning:

Many investors have danced around Tesla ( TSLA ) and the growing debate over its stock for the better part of two years.

Should Elon Musk’s EV creation be viewed as a car company? Or, should it be seen as a pure tech game whose future will depend on humanoid robots, robotics, and advanced chip manufacturing?

An argument could be made that Tesla’s outsize valuation already reflects the view that the company is not an automaker. The stock’s forward price-to-earnings ratio of 196 times is more oriented toward tech growth stocks than the single-digit multiples seen at traditional automakers General Motors ( GM ) and Ford ( F ).

But I’m here to officially call it today.

By February 1, 2026, I believe Tesla should no longer be viewed as an automaker. Sweat off these monthly delivery reports, which will suck for 2026 as they did in 2025.

In fact, I think it’s fair to assume that in less than three years, Tesla will no longer be making cars and SUVs for commuters.

I can see the company making Tesla semitrucks and some basic iterations of the new roadster for rich people.

Using Yahoo Scout AI (below), you can see how the key drivers of Tesla’s future valuation will differ from the value it has received in the past.

The entire company will be humanoid manufacturing, robottaxi manufacturing, energy manufacturing, chipmaking, and other things Musk is cooking up that are tied to high-margin software.

Where did this call come from? Musk dropped the tea leaves on his earnings call this week.

Now, let me say this: I liked the more emotional Musk on the Tesla earnings call, think we’re entering an era of amazing abundance, and appreciate how sad he was when he talked about scrapping the Model S and Model X to cut costs and build humanoid robots above their factory lines.

Maybe a Cybertruck should be next – who doesn’t hate trying to park a car next to one of those monsters?

So why did investors love a quarter in which total deliveries fell 16%? Because people don’t want electric cars?

He told us Tesla is about to embark on a major — and potentially more lucrative — reinvention:

• He changed the company’s mission statement to “awesome abundance.” This is how he started the call off.

• He said he wanted to make chips out of something called TerraFab. It will cost billions to do so, but Tesla supporters see it as the ultimate bullish long-term indicator.

• He’s scrapping the Model S and X to build robots.

• This is the year of the RobotTaxi production ramp.

• I haven’t heard anything about new Tesla models for passenger ownership, though the company he left behind is looking to debut a new Roadster in April.