Hungary’s Orban has long angered the European Union. Now some are optimistic that he will face defeat

BUDAPEST, Hungary (AP) — Hungary’s April 12 election will have deep aftershocks as many in the European Union expect the defeat of nationalist Prime Minister Viktor Orban, widely seen as threatening the future of the 27-nation bloc.

Orban, the EU’s longest-serving leader, is trailing in the polls. His 16-year hold on power has tested EU governance systems to ensure peace through economic and political integration after the devastation of world war. His rival, Peter Magyar, told The Associated Press that he would improve Hungary’s relationship with the EU if elected.

The EU is grappling with major threats: the rise of right-wing populism, conflicts in Ukraine and the Middle East, Russian sabotage efforts, Chinese economic expansion and a White House that continues decades of transatlantic cooperation.

But Orbán’s veto has limited EU reactions. Lawmakers and analysts say he has used his right of veto and a keen understanding of how the bloc uses members to leverage their power and spread funds to gain outside influence by blocking the decision-making process to extract concessions.

“He entered the club, read the rules, found out how the rules could be rigged, and then became a free rider and blackmailed all the other members of the club,” said Daniel Hegedus, deputy director of the Berlin-based Institute of European Politics. “The question is, how long will the club members hold out?”

Optimism turned to despair for Hungary

It didn’t start that way. After the Cold War, Hungary joined the EU with nine other countries in 2004 in the bloc’s largest expansion. There was widespread optimism for Hungary, said Jim Townsend, a fellow at the Center for a New American Security.

But after the economic crisis, Orbán came to power promising prosperity to the rich and the poor alike, said Gabor Syring, a former Hungarian parliamentarian who now teaches at Georgetown University in Qatar. He also forged bonds with conservative politicians in the bloc.

Orbán began to disparage the EU, often comparing Brussels to the Soviet Union, despite receiving large amounts of EU money, and resisting pressure to reverse the democratic backsliding.

From 2014 to 2022, “Hungary was one of the biggest beneficiaries of EU funds,” Scheiring said. “Orbán can navigate the EU system really well: get all the money and get away with his political shenanigans.”

The EU was frustrated by Orbán’s failure to ensure judicial independence and media freedom, and to curb corruption. It began depositing billions of funds in Budapest in 2022 in violation of the rule of law standards.

After Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine in 2022, Orbán repeatedly used his veto power to block efforts to support Kiev and appease Moscow. His closeness to Russian President Vladimir Putin was evident.

Last month, when Orbán reneged on a December deal to provide Ukraine with a 90-billion-euro ($104-billion) loan, Antonio Costa, the famously friendly European Council president, was visibly angry: “Nobody can blackmail the EU institutions,” he said.

Orbán exposes EU ‘design flaw’

As many see it, a thorn in the side of the EU is that major decisions require unanimity among members. Critics say it prevents the bloc from taking tougher action on other critical issues, such as the war in Gaza.

An internal European Parliament report shows that Orbán has vetoed more than any other leader in the EU’s history, German lawmaker Daniel Freund said.

“It’s amazing. Nobody else comes close,” Freund said. “This is the biggest design flaw in the EU that he has exposed.”

Orbán’s veto calls for future dictators — or Orbán himself, if he wins the election — to reform the bloc’s fundamental treaties.

There are ways to do that, but each has limitations.

The EU could reduce the number of issues requiring a unanimous vote. This would allow measures to be passed by a simple majority of the 27 national leaders, representing about two-thirds of the bloc’s population.

Hegedus said the European Commission could “play even more hardball” by creating sanctions to address specific breaches of EU rules.

Some politicians have even proposed invoking Article 7 of the EU treaty, a legal measure that could revoke Hungary’s voting rights in the bloc.

This would require the consent of all other EU leaders, however, and Slovak Prime Minister Robert Fico has said he would veto such a measure.

EU may pressure Hungary on defense funding

There are other tools the EU can use.

The European Commission has not approved Hungary’s bid to attract about 16 billion euros ($18.4 billion) as part of an EU program to boost members’ defense capabilities. Eighteen other countries have approved plans to use the fund.

If Orban is re-elected, the EU could use that amount as a bargaining chip to extract concessions from Ukraine, such as lifting the 90 billion euro veto, Hegedos said. But there is no guarantee that Hungary will find other policies to veto once it receives the money.

“What will the EU offer in two to three or four months when the next strategic decision comes and Orbán stops again?” Hegedus said.

Orbán prompts a look at how the EU accepts members

Orbán’s conduct has prompted a re-examination of how the EU accepts new members and monitors existing members.

Ongoing negotiations with Moldova, Montenegro and Ukraine to join the EU have been exacerbated by the turbulent experience with Hungary.

In February, European Commissioner for Enlargement Marta Kos said that the 12 countries that joined the EU from 2004-2007, including Hungary, “led to a new era of stability and an impressive level of economic convergence for our continent.”

But without naming Hungary or any other nation, Kos said the lesson from 2004 is that “we need to have safeguards to ensure that new members stick to the rules.”

“If countries go backwards on our fundamentals like democracy and the rule of law, safeguards must be cut,” the commissioner added, adding, “There are no Trojan horses.”

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McNeil reported from Brussels.