The Sydney terror attack may have been carried out by a foreign terrorist cell backed by Iran, Israeli officials believe.
Officials cited Iran as the primary suspect, and Israeli media reports said possible ties to groups including Hezbollah, Hamas and Pakistan-based Lashkar-e-Taiba were also being investigated.
Australian authorities have not publicly confirmed any foreign involvement in the atrocity.
At least 12 people were killed in the country’s worst mass shooting in decades, targeting Jewish gatherings to celebrate Hanukkah, the Festival of Lights.
Intelligence sources said the attack on the Bondi Beach festival appeared to be sophisticated and well-planned, and bore the hallmarks of Unit 910, Hezbollah’s dreaded external operations wing.
The Iranian link to the attack would follow a pattern of terror plots and attacks in Australia in recent years.
Israel’s Mossad intelligence revealed in October that since October 7, 2023, it had foiled dozens of terrorist attacks worldwide on Jewish and Israeli targets in countries including Greece, Germany, Belgium, Sweden and Australia.
Navid Akram. One of the alleged shooters
In August, Australia ordered Iran’s ambassador to leave the country after it was accused of directing attacks on Jewish targets in Sydney and Melbourne, an arson attack on a Sydney cafe in October 2024 and another attack on a synagogue in Melbourne in December.
Mike Burgess, the head of Australia’s Security Intelligence Organization (ASIO), said at the time that his team had discovered “links between the alleged crimes and commanders of Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps, the IRGC”.
Intelligence services also said they had found evidence that Iran was behind other anti-Semitic incidents in Australia, including attacks on Jewish schools, homes, vehicles and synagogues following the Oct. 7 attack on Israel by Iran-backed Hamas, and the subsequent war in Gaza.
A member of the Jewish community reacts with disbelief and horror as he walks with police towards the scene of Sunday’s mass shooting – David Gray/AFP via Getty Images
Danny Citrinowicz, an Iran expert at Israel’s National Security Studies Institute, said it was “too early to jump to conclusions” but added: “Given the short history of Iranian activity and 910 in Australia, they are certainly suspicious and high on the priority list.”
“Australia has long been known to be a hub for Hezbollah and Iran’s sleeper cells, so this could also be a joint operation between Hezbollah and the Quds Force,” Ronen Solomon, an Israeli intelligence expert on Hezbollah, told the Telegraph.
“But it will mean that it will be much harder to pin the incident on them because Iran wants to cover it up as an anti-Semitic incident. If the investigation incriminates Iran or Hezbollah, Israel will respond, which will make things even more complicated.”
Mr Solomon said the attackers were able to bypass local security, gather detailed information on the target and plan their attack well.
Before the attack this morning, the Australian government’s national security website listed the threat posed by Hezbollah on Australian soil as “likely”, writing that “it is possible that future attacks could harm Australian interests”.
In November 2023, a few weeks after the outbreak of the Gaza war, the Mossad released a statement saying they had foiled a Hezbollah plot “directed and financed by the Iranian regime” targeting Israeli and Jewish targets in Brazil.
“In the background of the war in Gaza against the terrorist organization Hamas, Hezbollah and the Iranian regime continue to operate around the world to attack Israeli, Jewish and Western targets,” the statement warned.
Mr Citrinovich, who previously headed the Iran branch of Israeli Defense Intelligence, added: “They could be proxies, criminals or even people working in the local community, which is Iran’s modus operandi. But Iran’s involvement, targeting Jewish facilities in Sydney and Melbourne, really points in that direction.
“However we cannot rule out the Sunnis. We know al-Qaeda and IS are also active in Australia. It will not be an easy investigation if it is Iran or Hezbollah, as they will cover their tracks well.”
Police cordoned off the area around the scene of the shooting, which analysts described as “extremely well organized by a coordinated group” – George Chan/Getty Images
He said Sunday’s attack appeared sophisticated and well-planned as opposed to opportunistic killings. “Not something you ‘ever’ do and it looks like they were very capable of using their weapons. It looks very organized.”
An Israeli intelligence source, who asked not to be named, told The Telegraph that officials were keeping an open mind, but that the operation appeared to feature a state-sponsored incident.
“It was extremely well organized by a coordinated group, and ahead of time, and the amount of ammunition and long-range weapons all indicate this,” the source said.
The Mossad said in October it had identified General Ammar, a senior IRGC-Quds Force commander, as the mastermind of an international network responsible for anti-Semitic attacks in several Western countries, including Australia.
Mossad claims the network has stepped up its activities targeting Jewish and Israeli sites around the world since the October 7 Hamas terror attack.
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