Gov. Wes Moore (D) speaks to reporters on Nov. A new poll shows the governor is still popular, but his popularity is declining. (Photo by Brian P. Sears/Maryland Matters)
Nearly half of Maryland voters said they will vote to re-elect Gov. Wes Moore to a second term, even as the first-term Democrat’s job approval numbers continue to trend downward.
A poll released Tuesday by Annapolis-based Gonzales Research and Media represents a mixed bag for the governor.
“If the election were today, Moore would be re-elected, but the election is not today,” said Patrick Gonzales, a veteran state pollster. “It’s 10 months away. We have a session that’s going to be rather problematic, I suspect, for the governor. Where we are six months from now, where we are on Labor Day, that’s going to make a difference. That’s how I see it.”
The survey of 808 registered Maryland voters who said they were likely to vote in 2026 was conducted between Dec. 21 and Jan. 6. The margin of error is plus or minus 3.5%.
Gonzales also asked who voters would support if the 2026 elections were held today.
Moore, with 49.9%, topped a typical Republican and third-party candidate. That number is driven by about 76% of Democrats who said they would give Moore a second term.
Democrats hold a 2-1 registration advantage over Republicans in Maryland, making up a little more than 50% of all registered voters in the state.
Predictably, 81% of Republicans said they would support the Republican candidate. Unaffiliated voters are more evenly split, with 35% saying they will vote for Moore and 32% backing the unnamed Republican.
Gonzales noted that polling data suggests voter dissatisfaction on pocketbook issues: affordability, the economy and taxes. Six out of 10 voters who responded believed they paid too much tax.
“They’re paying too much for their electricity,” he said. “They are paying more taxes and people [angry].”
All of that is a harbinger of potential pocketbook elections, he said.
Gov. Wes Moore has seen a narrowing of the divide between voters who approve of his job performance and those who disapprove since taking office. (Gonzales Research and Media Services)
Gonzales noted that among those who say they pay too much in taxes, “a hypothetical Republican candidate would best Moore by 13 points, 47% to 34%.”
Another 41% said they believe they pay “the right amount” in taxes. Only 1% said they believe they should pay more.
Last year, Moore and the General Assembly raised taxes by an estimated $1.6 billion, part of a plan to close an estimated $3.3 billion structural budget deficit.
The expectation was that the tax increase, combined with one-time funding changes and some cuts, would fill the spending gap and leave $300 million for the fiscal 2028 budget year.
Those expectations were dashed. The state faces an estimated structural deficit of $1.5 billion for the upcoming budget year. Officials have pointed the finger at federal jobs, including the loss of 25,000 federal jobs since President Donald Trump took office.
Republican candidates in recent history have enjoyed the end of an election year tied to one or more so-called pocketbook issues. In 1994, Allen Sauerbrey lost to Parris Glendening by just 6,000 voters. In 2002, Robert Ehrlich became the first Republican elected governor in nearly four decades. In 2014, Larry Hogan won the first of two consecutive elections. He was the first Republican to do so since Theodore McKeldin.
The downward trend in job approvals continues
Moore entered office in 2023 enjoying the approval of nearly six in 10 Marylanders. He topped Gonzales in a September 2024 poll, when 64% of those polled approved of his efforts. There was a difference of 35 points between those who approved and those who disapproved.
Since then, there has been a downward trend. There was a 19-point division last March. In Tuesday’s poll, 52% disapprove of the job Moore is doing compared to 41%, down three points from a March 2025 Gonzales poll. The governor has performed similarly in other polls, including the University of Maryland, Baltimore County Institute of Politics.
Beneath those top-line numbers in the Gonzales poll, the survey shows a continued trend of voters who are changing their minds about Moore’s efforts.
The current poll shows an 11-point split between those who approve and those who disapprove. And for the first time since Gonzales asked about Moore’s job performance, those who strongly disapprove outnumber those who strongly approve.
Nearly one in three voters said they strongly disapproved of Moore’s job performance in the last session of the current term — a 7-point shift from March.
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Moore lost ground with Democrats, Republicans and unaffiliated voters. While 73% of Democrats approved of Moore’s performance, that was down from 83% in March 2025. At the same time, those who disapprove rose five points to 18%.
In March, a fifth of unaffiliated voters declined to give an opinion on Moore’s job performance. Now, just 10% declined to answer: 41% of independent voters approved of the governor’s performance — a 7-point increase from March — but 49% said they disapproved, also a seven-point increase.
Democratic optimism
Moore’s job approval numbers come as a Gonzales poll shows an increase in overall sentiment about the state’s direction.
47 percent of those surveyed said that the state is moving in the right direction, while 44 percent said that the state is on the wrong track.
The results are an improvement from last March when 50% said the state was on the wrong track and 41% said things were going in the right direction.
The results don’t track directly with Moore’s job approval numbers.
“It’s not just about people thinking the taxes are too high,” Gonzales said. “There are other factors that play into what appears to be a contradiction in voting. I can’t speak to everything.”
Instead, Gonzales said national politics and the looming midterm elections — a referendum on Trump — may be at play. Nationally, Democrats are eyeing the possibility of taking a majority in the US House in November.
“When we polled in March, Trump had just taken office and the Democrats were a little disappointed,” Gonzales said. “Now they’re running on that eye-of-the-beach mentality of Tiger, Rocky, and Apollo Creed, and 70% of Democrats see things moving in the right direction for them.”
