Ceasefire talks have begun between the US and Iran in Pakistan, but a possible military clash between the two countries has begun.
On Saturday, US Navy ships navigated through the Strait of Hormuz in an uncoordinated manner with Iran, sources told Axios, marking the first such move since the war began six weeks ago.
The ships crossed the strait into the Persian Gulf, then returned to the Arabian Sea, the report said, adding that US officials have focused on freedom of navigation.
A statement from U.S. Central Command confirmed that two destroyers transited the strait to set up conditions to clear the mines and that underwater drones would join the effort.
“Today, we began the process of establishing a new route and we will soon share this safe route with the maritime industry to encourage the free flow of commerce,” said Commander of Central Command, Adam Brad Cooper.
But Iran declared it a ceasefire violation, and a source told Bloomberg that the naval destroyers were forced to withdraw after Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps launched a drone in its direction.
Also on Saturday, President Donald Trump posted on Truth Social that the US is “beginning the process of cleaning up the Strait of Hormuz.” Meanwhile, three oil supertankers transited the narrow waterway, representing the biggest day of oil spills through Hormuz, leading to the world’s one-fifth oil war after Iran closed the chokepoint.
Trump suspended the war against Iran for two weeks while the talks were underway. But the ceasefire remains tenuous as hostilities continue, and Iran maintains a tight grip on the Straits.
At the same time, the US military continues to send more combat power to the region. A third aircraft carrier, along with thousands of Marines and paratroopers, is expected to arrive later this month. Several long-range cruise missiles are also floating in the Middle East.
“I think we’re ready for Round 2,” Rapidan Energy founder Bob McNally told CNBC on Thursday. “But as we work on Iran’s ability to disrupt the Strait of Hormuz, which we unfortunately started too late but we are doing so now, Iran’s leverage will begin to decrease. And I think the conditions for a real ceasefire and a full reopening of the Strait of Hormuz will be stronger later this month.
He compared the threat from a weakened Iran to a game of hack-a-mole, enlisting anti-ship missile launchers, small fast-attack boats, drones, submarines and long-range artillery.
McNally, who previously served as a White House energy adviser to President George W. Bush, also pointed out that the U.S. has depleted Iran’s stockpile of underwater mines that could be used to close the strait.
“It may not be widely reported, but I believe the US military has been focusing on hitting those moles for the last week or so, to reduce Iran’s capabilities,” he added. “You can’t get rid of it completely, but it can reduce Iran’s ability to stop shipping at a manageable level — and that’s when insurance can come into play and escort, and people can start going through.”
For now, Iran’s missiles and drones are enough to intimidate ships, giving Tehran influence control. While a trickle of ships is allowed to go through, it is very selective and requires a toll of about $2 million.
Iran is seeking to formalize this “toll booth” in cease-fire talks, and Trump has also speculated that the US might enter into a joint venture with the Islamic Republic to extract transit fees.
But Gulf states exporting their oil and gas through the Strait of Hormuz have signaled they will not tolerate Iranian control of the strait. Meanwhile, Wall Street has warned that it will also threaten the dominance of the US dollar in global trade.
In an interview with India’s Times Now on Wednesday, McNally said allowing Iran to rule the strait would set a dangerous precedent that would encourage similar behavior in other parts of the world.
“It will disrupt the global order and trade and stability,” he said. “It’s hard for me to imagine that the United States will end this conflict by strengthening Iran and having the ability to get not only tolls, but other concessions: diplomatic concessions, foreign policy concessions, military concessions.”
This story was originally featured on Fortune.com
