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Nobel laureate physicist John Martinis has warned Bitcoin Can be cracked in minutes by quantum computers but the community has 5-10 years to upgrade to quantum-resistant encryption.
A recent Google paper endorsed by Martinis shows how a sufficiently advanced quantum computer can derive a Bitcoin private key from its public key in minutes, exploiting a brief window when a transaction’s public key is disclosed before confirmation.
Risk is concentrated in a specific exposure window.
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When a Bitcoin transaction is transmitted, its public key is visible before it is confirmed on-chain.
A powerful quantum computer can use that window to obtain the corresponding private key and redirect funds before final settlement.
Breaking cryptography is one of the easiest applications for quantum computing because it is so numerical.
“These are small, easy algorithms. Low-hanging fruit,” Martinis said.
Bitcoin relies on elliptic curve cryptography, putting it directly in the line of fire.
Unlike traditional financial systems that can migrate to quantum-resistant encryption standards, Bitcoin faces a more complex challenge.
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Its decentralized structure and historic design make upgrades slower and more controversial.
“Bitcoin is a little different, so people should be thinking about it now,” Martinis said.
Building a quantum computer capable of such an attack is one of the most difficult engineering challenges in modern science.
Martinis points out major obstacles in scaling, reliability, and error correction.
Martinis suggested a rough 5-10 year window but cautioned that uncertainty is not a reason for inaction. “Given the serious consequences, you deal with it. You have time, but you have to act on it.”
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The warning highlights a growing shift within the quantum research community, where scientists are flagging growing vulnerabilities in existing cryptographic systems by withholding sensitive technical details — a strategy borrowed from traditional cybersecurity disclosure practices.
“The crypto community has to plan for this,” Martinis said. “This is a serious issue that must be faced.”
Martinis led Google’s quantum hardware program, including the 2019 “Quantum Supremacy” experiment.
He is currently the CTO and co-founder of Qolab, a hardware company that develops utility-scale superconducting quantum computers.
Image: Shutterstock
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