Some people on Wall Street think yesterday’s US jobs numbers are ‘unimaginable’ and therefore due for a downward correction.

S&P 500 futures were up 0.32% this morning after the index closed flat at 6,941 yesterday. Investors appeared buoyed by strong job market numbers published yesterday by the US Bureau of Labor Statistics. With unemployment falling from 4.4% to 4.3%, many Wall Street analysts are saying this means the US Federal Reserve is now less likely to cut interest rates. If the economy is doing well, there’s no need to risk inflation by delivering more cheap money, the theory goes.

Some of them think the labor market is so tight right now that the Fed might as well pick up rates (a scenario that could draw ire from President Donald Trump).

But, as always, the devil is in the details. Some analysts are concerned that the latest numbers may be inaccurate, and that the level of job creation in the United States is lower than the figures suggest.

First, the number of jobs added in January—130,000—was nearly double what analysts expected. Analysts aren’t always right, of course. But it is interesting that the reported numbers were out of line with economists’ estimates.

Second, the number of jobs the BLS previously reported for 2024-25 is down. The actual number was only 181,000, the agency said, and not the 584,000 previously estimated.

This suggests that the January numbers may also be revised downwards in the coming months.

Right now, traders are choosing to believe the numbers. The highly reliable CME FedWatch index, which tracks bets on future rate-setting decisions by the Fed, shows a 92% chance the Fed will hold rates at 3.5% in March, and a 78% chance that hold will continue in April. A 50% reduction is possible only in June.

“The broad-based strength in the January jobs report validates our view that the Fed will not cut. [current Fed Chair Jerome] Powell,” advised Shruti Mishra and her team at Bank of America in a note seen fate (Powell is due to leave office in May.)

Analysts at Macquarie argued that the Fed could be forced to raise rates if the job market continues to tighten. David Doyle and Chinara Azizova told clients, “We expect the next move of rate cuts to be completed in 2026, with hikes likely.”

But others feel that the headline performance numbers hide a weakness beneath the surface. “I’m not going to hold my breath with today’s job numbers. The job market is weak and at high risk,” Moody’s chief economist Mark Zandi told followers at X. “Yes, payroll employment rose by 130,000 in January, but given the largest downward revision in history, there has been no job growth since last April (LLi).