Republicans plan to pick up five Democratic-held congressional seats in Texas once seemed like a sure thing. not anymore
President Donald Trump’s flagging approval ratings, particularly among Latinos, and strong Democratic showings in this year’s special elections have shifted perceptions on both sides. Now, the cushion the Texas GOP has drawn on its new map — Trump won every Republican-favored district by 10 points or more a year ago — looks like it may be much smaller.
Democrats beat Trump’s 2024 results by at least 13 points in five U.S. House districts with special elections this year. An overperformance at that level next year would flip three of Texas’ five new seats into the Democratic column, though it’s unlikely the performance will be replicated in every district across the country, and recent polls suggest Democrats currently have a more modest national advantage.
“I can feel it on the ground,” Democratic Rep. said Vicente Gonzalez, whose South Texas district was one of five targeted by Republicans. “I really hope that we’re going to take back the majority in the next cycle and South Texas and places that have been traditionally Democratic districts that have come back to us in the last few cycles with a lot of disillusioned people.”
Republicans are still likely to gain overall in the national redistricting battle with the help of Texas, North Carolina, Missouri and Ohio, even after Indiana’s Republican senators rejected the new map despite pressure from Trump. But changing national trends could change the expectations that both parties get from redrawing their maps.
Eduardo Leal, press secretary for Republican Texas Gov. Greg Abbott, who redistricted the GOP-led legislature and is running for a fourth term next year, said “the vast majority of Texans” share Abbott’s values: “secure borders, secure communities, and an economy that can sustain Texas.”
“We compete for every vote, because elections are won not on past results, but on a clear vision and proven track record of delivering for all Texans,” Leal said in a statement. “We are confident that message continues to resonate with Latino voters statewide.”
People hand out sample ballots as voters arrive at a polling place on November 5, 2024 in La Rosita, Texas. – Eric Gay/AP
The GOP’s bet on Latinos is less certain
Trump improved Republicans’ standing with Latino voters in 2024, winning 46% according to 2024 exit polls, up from 32% in 2020. The new map of Texas sought to build on Trump’s strong showing in the state, which he won by 14 points. Notably, Trump won every county in the heavily Latino Rio Grande Valley, a longtime Democratic stronghold.
Four of the five Democratic-held seats targeted by the state GOP are majority Latino under the new map, along with the 28th Congressional District, long held by Democratic Rep. Represented by Henry Cuellar, tops at over 90% Latino.
But Trump has surged among Latinos nationwide since the start of his second term, outpacing the decline in his overall approval rating. In three statewide races this November — Democratic-backed ballot measures in California and gubernatorial races in New Jersey and Virginia — Democrats made the most in counties with high shares of Latinos, eclipsing Joe Biden’s 2020 margin there.
And in Miami, a Democratic-backed candidate won the mayoral election earlier this month, breaking nearly 30 years of Republican-held control of a nonpartisan seat.
In Texas, Trump’s approval rating among Latinos fell from 44% in February to 32% in October, according to a University of Texas/Texas Politics Project poll. The 2025 UH-TSU Texas Trends Survey found Texas Latinos regretting their 2024 vote at a higher rate than Texas voters overall. When asked how they would vote in the 2024 presidential election if they could vote again, Texan Latinos favored Democrat Kamala Harris by an 11-point margin, a 19-point swing from the 8-point margin by which the same group said they would support Trump in 2024.
Chuck Rocha, a Democratic strategist and founder of Solidarity Strategy, told CNN that he thought Latinos could turn to Democrats next year by a five- to 20-point margin.
“I think they’re all going to come back,” Rocha said. “It’s just, do they go back to pre-Trump standards?”
Gonzalez told CNN that he has been seeing that discontent in his own constituencies over the past year. His new district is more than three-quarters Latino.
Gonzalez highlighted that affordability is a top issue in his district, along with labor shortages and an increased presence of immigration officials on the ground.
“I don’t think Democrats, and especially Latinos, who voted for Trump expected this to happen,” Gonzalez said later. “And now it’s, and it’s compounded — with a lot of other problems that we’re talking about, economic problems and inflation and people, the American people continue to struggle.”
A big swing among Texas Latinos could also swing the GOP-held 15th Congressional District. Currently held by Republican Rep. Monica de la Cruz, the 15th District voted comfortably for Trump in 2024 (he won by 18 points under 2026 lines), but his margin was more modest in 2020 (2 points). Democratic candidate Beto O’Rourke won the district by 11 points in his 2018 U.S. Senate race. De la Cruz’s electoral margin barely changed under the new map.
Patrick Ruffini, a pollster and founding partner at the Republican firm Echelon Insights, argued before last year’s presidential election that Trump could lead a realignment to bring more Latinos into a GOP coalition focused on working-class issues.
“These are the most important voters to cultivate because they are the most swing,” Ruffini told CNN of the Latino vote. “Without them … it’s very difficult for Democrats to have long-term success in presidential elections. I think that’s going to be a lot more focused for the administration and the Republicans going into the midterms.”
South Texas is home to a more conservative population intimately familiar with the border, Ruffini said. But Rocha believes that even a small shift in the voting habits of rural Latinos could tip the districts over the edge.
A border wall is seen near the Rio Grande border community of Mission, Texas, on August 9. – Tom Brenner for The Washington Post/Getty Images/File.
The general election climate has favored Democrats this year
Democrats showed strong showings in five special elections for the U.S. House this year, exceeding the 2024 presidential margin by at least 13 points in each race and averaging a 17-point improvement overall.
Special elections are low-turnout events, and typically, only very partisan and highly engaged voters participate. But a December early special election in Tennessee’s 7th congressional district showed turnout on par with the 2022 midterm elections. Democratic candidate Aftin Bain lost the race by 9 points, closing Trump’s 22-point lead in the district by 13 points.
In CNN’s latest poll, registered voters preferred Democratic over Republican candidates in their House districts by 5 points (that’s a nearly 7-point improvement over 2024). Democratic candidates may end up with larger margins among voters who actually turn out given growing evidence of a Democratic advantage in voter motivation.
“Efficiency is really the front and center issue right now. I think that’s really the primary concern and the primary component of it,” Ruffini told CNN. “I don’t think Donald Trump needs to convince people that he feels their pain, but I do think he needs to make the case that Democrats are too weak to fix it.”
This story has been updated to add a statement from Texas Governor Greg Abbott’s office.
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