Thailand voted for a three-way race as a risk of destabilization

By Panu Wongcha-um and Devjyot Ghoshal

BANGKOK, Feb 8 (Reuters) – Voters in Thailand turned out in numbers on Sunday for a general election defined by a three-way battle between conservative, progressive and populist camps, with no party expected to win a clear majority and prolonging the specter of political instability.

Prime Minister Anutin Charnvirakul set the stage for a snap election in mid-December amid a heated border dispute between Thailand and Cambodia, in what analysts said was a move by the conservative leader to cash in on rising nationalism.

At the time, he had been in power for less than 100 days after ousting Prime Minister Patongtarn Shinawatra of the popular Pheu Thai Party in Cambodia’s crisis.

Pheu Thai, backed by billionaire former Prime Minister Thaksin Shinawatra, who went to prison days after ousting his daughter, is weak but not out, according to polls.

“We have done everything we can,” Anutin told reporters after voting in his Bhumjaithai party stronghold in the city of Buriram, northeast of Bangkok. “We hope the public will trust us.”

But it was the progressive People’s Party, with its message of structural change and reform in Southeast Asia’s second-largest economy, that led most opinion polls during the election campaign season.

“This election is about whether Thailand will recover from its mistakes or whether Thailand will recover from its political instability and economic recession,” said Thitinan Pongsudhirak, a political scientist at Chulalongkorn University in Bangkok.

“My initial conclusion, I’m afraid to say, is that it’s not going to break.”

A steady stream of voters walked into Bangkok’s polling stations in the hours after voting began, among them Suwat Kiatsuwan, a 44-year-old company employee.

“I don’t want the same person anymore,” he said after casting his vote. “If we voted like we did before, nothing would change. We weren’t going anywhere.”

Polls closed at 5pm local time (1000 GMT) and preliminary results were expected within hours.

Pre-election survey

Although it has taken on Anutin’s Bhumjaithai Party and Pheu Thai, the People’s Party may not have enough support to win a parliamentary majority on its own – raising the risk of repeating the fate of its predecessor.

In a survey conducted in the last week of the election campaign released on Sunday, Bhumjaithai has predicted that Janawadi Party will win 125-135 seats with 140-150 seats in the 500-member House of Representatives.

The People’s Party’s forerunner Move Forward won the last election in 2023 only to be prevented by a military-appointed Senate and Conservative MPs from forming a government, opening the door for Pheu Thai.

This long-standing conflict between the powerful royalist-conservative establishment and popular democratic movements has created a prolonged period of uncertainty, punctuated by street protests, violence and military coups.

Constitutional Referendum

Thai voters will also be asked to decide whether a new constitution should replace the 2017 charter, a military-backed document that critics say concentrates power in undemocratic institutions, including a powerful Senate elected through an indirect electoral process with limited popular participation.

Thailand has had 20 constitutions since the end of the absolute monarchy in 1932, most of which have undergone changes since military coups.

If voters back the draft of a new national charter, the new government and lawmakers can begin the amendment process in parliament with two more referendums needed to adopt the new constitution.

“I believe that the party that wins the next election will have an outward influence on constitutional reform, whether we the people walk away from the draft constitution or not,” said Napon Jatusripitak of the Bangkok-based Thailand Future think-tank.

Different strategies

Bhumzaithai’s rise to rising nationalism stemming from the Thai-Cambodia conflict – along with the fall of Pheu Thai after its troubles last year – has prompted a series of landslides and reshaped political battlegrounds, including vote-rich agricultural belts.

Some political parties have responded by drawing prominent local figures, including rival groups, into their camps, aiming to capture personal loyalty networks that are key to winning in the hinterland.

The reformist People’s Party has also changed its playbook, undermining the progressive movement’s anti-establishment stance and bringing in outside talent to convince voters it has what it takes to run the government.

Former Prime Minister Abhijit Vejjajiva has thrown himself into the mix, capitalizing on his personal appeal to revive his once-moribund Democrat Party, which could emerge as a major force in post-election coalition talks.

(Adilyal Reported with Thremones, while In Wessaar, Edicting with Raju Opalicannin).