The claims revolve around the use of new Russian missiles to attack Ukraine
Russia’s heavy missile barrage directed against Ukraine on the night of January 20 appears to have involved the use of several new or unusual weapons. Various sources, unofficial and official, indicate the possible use of a new version of the Iskander short-range ballistic missile (SRBM) as well as the rarely used Zircon hypersonic cruise missile. The wreckage recovered in Ukraine also confirms, for the first time, that Russia has used re-assured missile targets for air defense in a ground-attack role.
According to a report by the Ukrainian Air Force Command, a total of 34 missiles of various types were used in the raid, including 339 drones, of which approximately 250 were Shahed/Geran-series. Ukraine claimed that 14 of 18 ballistic missiles from Iskander and S-300/S-400 systems, 13 of 15 Kh-101 cruise missiles launched from strategic bombers and 315 of 339 long-range drones were destroyed.
Note: The missile shown at the top of this story is an S-400 surface-to-air missile, a weapon that is also used in a ground-attack capability.
Based on Ukrainian accounts, Russia used an improved version of the Iskander on the night of January 20 to strike at least one target in the Vinnytsia region deep inside Ukraine. Although this has yet to be independently confirmed, it has also been reported by Russian media.
Reports began to emerge last year that Russia was preparing to begin mass production of a new version of the Iskander SRBM with greater range and improved accuracy. The original 9K720 Iskander-M’s solid-fuel 9M723 ballistic missiles, according to official figures, have a range of 500 kilometers (310 mi), although there is evidence that they can fly further than that.
The new version, whose name is unknown, is believed to have a range of at least 1,000 kilometers (620 mi), resulting in it being unofficially dubbed the Iskander-1000. Ukrainian officials also refer to the new weapons as Iskander-I.
Regardless, the reported range would place the new missile in the medium-range ballistic missile (MRBM) category. MRBMs are classified as ballistic missiles with a maximum range of between 1,000 and 3,000 kilometers (620 and 1,860 mi), while SRBMs can reach between 300 and 1,000 kilometers (190 and 620 mi).
This is, allegedly, the only known photo of the so-called Iskander-1000, taken during testing:
According to available reports, the long-range Iskander uses a more powerful and efficient engine to increase its range; A smaller sized warhead would be another way to help achieve this while providing more space for fuel. Meanwhile accuracy is enhanced by a new navigation and guidance system. It is assessed to include a new inertial guidance system (INS), supplemented by GLONASS satellite navigation, and a radar seeker for the terminal stage. It is said to provide accuracy to within 16 feet. No information about the weapon is available.
Like the earlier Iskander, the Iskander-1000 is likely to be able to perform high-G maneuvers in the terminal phase and deploy decoys to better evade air defenses.
Examples of decoys deployed by 9M723 ballistic missiles:
Also relevant here is the emergence of reports about the Iskander-1000 after the United States abrogated the Intermediate-Range Nuclear Forces Treaty (INF). It first banned the Soviet Union (later Russia) and the United States from fielding it any Conventional launched from the ground or Any type of nuclear-capable missile capable of hitting targets between 500 and 5,500 km (310 and 3,420 mi).
The demise of the INF frees Russia from such sanctions, including versions of Iskandar. As such, the Iskander-1000 will be important not only in the conflict in Ukraine (being able to hit targets in the west of the country) but also against NATO in Europe. If launched from the Kaliningrad exclave, the Iskander-1000’s range would cover almost the entire Baltic Sea region, all of Denmark and most of Germany.
Speaking to a Russian daily newspaper Moskovskij Komsomolets“Military adviser” Anton Trutze said that the Iskander-1000 (coupled with the Oreshnik intermediate-range ballistic missile) “ensures superiority over Soviet capabilities in the category of operational-tactical missiles, which were once limited by the INF Treaty.” The result for Russia, he claimed, was “a serious argument in functional and political terms.”
Another theory is that the ballistic missile reported as the Iskander-1000/Iskander-I was something else entirely.
Ukrainian officials say they launched a Zircon hypersonic missile from Russian-occupied Crimea. Designed primarily for anti-shipping, the weapon was previously combat-tested in Ukraine. According to the US Strategic Command, the Zircon is capable of traveling at speeds up to Mach 8.
In February 2024, evidence emerged that Russia had used zircon for the first time in attacks on at least one target in Ukraine. Ukrainian scientists showed a video of the zircon debris – “fragments of engines and steering mechanisms [with] Distinctive Marks,” seen below:
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According to Ukrainian media reports, Zircon was launched towards Vinnytsia. With this in mind, it is possible that the Zircon was misreported as the Iskander-1000/Iskander-I, even though these are very different weapons. By all accounts, the Iskander-1000/Iskander-I is a ballistic missile, while the Zircon, still mysterious, is known to be a hypersonic cruise missile, possibly with a ramjet powerplant. Such a mixture will be difficult, but it is possible.
More concrete evidence is available about another Russian missile launch on the night of January 20.
This is the RM-48U, which was developed as a target missile for training S-300 and S-400 air defense system crews. The RM-48U is fired from the same launchers and based on reworked 5V55 or 48N6 missiles, which are used by these systems, after reaching the end of their service life.
Parts clearly marked as the RM-48U were found after the raid, as seen in the composite below.
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It is the first time since the start of the full-scale war that the RM-48U has been fired against Ukraine, according to the country’s main intelligence directorate, which estimates that Russia currently has about 400 of these missiles in its inventory.
What is unclear at this point is whether the target missile was fitted with a warhead, turning it into a true ground-attack weapon, or if it was fired together with ballistic missiles to help defeat Ukrainian air defenses.
According to Oleksandr Kovalenko of Ukraine’s Information Countermeasures Group, the RM-48U missiles can have a range of between 30 and 120 kilometers (19 to 75 miles), depending on how they are modified.
Kovalenko assumes the RM-48Us have been retrofitted with warheads for the lack of regular ballistic missiles, particularly Iskanders. Kovalenko said that Russia could only produce about two 9M723 missiles (for the Iskander system) per day. Back in September 2022, Ukrainian intelligence sources claimed that only 13 percent of Russia’s pre-war Iskander ballistic missiles remained, forcing it to look for other solutions.
A block of flats damaged by a Russian missile strike in the Novobavarsky district of Kharkiv, northeast Ukraine, on May 31, 2024. Five people were killed and 25 injured after the Russian military fired five S-300 and S-400 anti-aircraft guided missiles from Kharkiv’s Belgorod region. Photo by Ukrinform/NurPhoto via Getty Images Nurfoto
Based on the estimated range, however, even the high-end figure, the RM-48U is probably an adequate alternative to an Iskander. Also, considering their original role, the RM-48U’s accuracy is probably poor, making them only suitable for very short-range strikes against area targets — or as decoys.
Russia already uses missiles as decoys, including time-lapse air-launched cruise missiles, with their previous nuclear warheads removed. You can read more about that trend here.
At the same time, there is also a long-established precedent for using the S-300 and S-400 air defense systems to fire their standard surface-to-air missile effectors against ground targets in Ukraine. The S-300 has a little-known surface-to-surface capability, although it is far from perfect in this role.
Finally, the same missile barrage provided evidence of newly developed Kh-101 cruise missiles, which are launched from Tu-95MS Bear-H and Tu-160 Blackjack bombers. At least one Kh-101 shot down by Ukrainian air defenses indicates it was built in the first quarter of 2026. The recent use of such a missile underscores how Russia has depleted its stockpile of old weapons, which we have discussed in the past and which has increased due to the preponderance that sanctions produce. Given how new the Kh-101 in question is, it shows that Russia is deploying them in a ‘just in time’ fashion as soon as they roll off the production line.
B-101 of 2026 was used on this night. Directly from the factory. Therefore, any additional impact on the availability of components.
On this night, Kh-101 missiles manufactured in 2026 were used – straight from the factory. So any additional pressure on availability… pic.twitter.com/yIRqTayCk9
Taken together, these missile developments indicate that Russia is continuing to use a mix of weapons (ballistic missiles, cruise missiles, drones), and decoys in its large-scale attacks on Ukraine. At the same time, the use of brand-new missiles and recycled target missiles points to a general shortage. Purposeful design Missiles and decoys.
For Ukraine, however, the sheer number of missiles and drones, whether new or old, that Russia continues to use to ensure that its tough air defenses remain under a lot of pressure. This is a particular concern when supplies of Western-supplied air defense systems remain severely limited, and the cutting winter months make life especially difficult for its civilian population.