A dramatic increase in maritime drone attacks by Ukraine on tankers carrying Russian oil could spill over into the English Channel, experts have warned.
Friday’s attack on an Oman-flagged tanker widened Ukrainian operations from the Black Sea to the Mediterranean, signaling sanctioned tankers could be struck anywhere on their journey.
“The Ukrainians are now operating in a much wider area. If you’re a shadow fleet vessel now you’re at risk wherever you are,” said Matthew Wright of business intelligence firm Kepler.
“You get Shadow Fleet ships coming out of the Baltic Sea, they’re essentially going through the North Sea. The threat to them is high now.”
Michel Bockman of marine data company Windward said the Ukrainians are likely to continue to focus on empty tankers rather than those full of oil, but attacks could impose huge costs on ship operators.
He added: “Marine insurers have been saying for a long time that one of these ships, if they have a casualty, especially if they go through the English Channel, they are waiting for a billion dollar marine casualty.
“Ukraine is aware of this risk, and I think that’s why this is a new strategy, an evolving strategy, and definitely one to watch.”
About 1,000 tankers are involved in Russia’s shadow fleet – ships, often under false flags and with unclear ownership, that deliver crude or refined Russian oil to clients mainly in India and China.
About 600 carry exclusively Russian oil, which puts them in the trap of Western sanctions. Carries Russian oil along with about 350 other cargoes.
Ukraine carried out drone attacks on three Black Sea tankers last month, and is also believed to be behind an apparent limpet-mine explosion off the coast of Senegal.
Experts said the wider attacks could prompt some shipowners to question whether the risk of working for Vladimir Putin is still worth the reward.
Attacks can increase shipowners’ insurance premiums. The insurers are often believed to be Russian or Chinese, and Kepler said operators are starting to worry about whether they will get paid if attacked.
Kepler’s Mr Wright said: “London’s insurance market is incredibly well capitalised. It can handle very large claims because the risk is spread out. While we don’t have much visibility into how well capitalized the insurers covering the Russian shadow fleet are.
“If you’re a shadow fleet owner, you’re asking whether you can get paid. This will make many owners who are leading players in the shadow fleet wonder if the risk-reward is worth it.”
It is said that the targeted tanker is Qandil
Further squeezing the Kremlin’s war chest, shipowners could respond to greater risks by raising the prices they charge from Russia.
Ukrainian security sources told local media that this calculus made these tankers fair game.
“The aggressor state used this tanker to break sanctions and earn money that was used for the war against Ukraine,” the sources were quoted as saying.
“So … this is a very legitimate goal. The enemy must understand that Ukraine will not stop, and will defeat him anywhere in the world.”
The Ukrainian action underscores the extent to which civilian tankers have been implicated in geopolitical conflicts and tensions this year, with the US also blocking oil-tanker traffic around Venezuela.
Ms Bockman said this blurring of the lines between the commercial and military domains was making the industry “uncomfortable”.
Arsenio Dominguez, secretary-general of the United Nations’ International Maritime Organization, urged restraint this week.
He said, ‘As the situation in the Black Sea continues to escalate, I call on all parties not to target innocent seafarers, port workers and merchant ships.
“Shipping should not be used as collateral in geopolitical situations and there are growing environmental risks developing.”
The Ukrainians appear to have only targeted empty tankers to avoid triggering an environmental disaster.
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