House Speaker Mike Johnson, left, and President Donald Trump appear in the Roosevelt Room of the White House as voting continues in Tennessee’s special election on Dec. 2, 2025.
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Again, national Republicans can’t twist the raw math.
Tennessee Republican Matt Van Eps’ victory Tuesday night in a gerrymandered district was technically a win for the red team, but it was much tighter than it should have been and more expensive than anyone expected.
Van Eps’ nine-point victory over Democrat Aftin Bain would have been even more impressive if it hadn’t been cut by 22 points for the Republican just a year ago. The results have some GOP players fearing that next year’s midterms could be worse than they already anticipated and without a clear strategy for how to regroup.
Initially, House Republicans were poised to defend the 16 incumbents seen as the most vulnerable. On Wednesday, there was talk of doubling, if not tripling, that firewall. Across the aisle, Democratic strategists close to the House leadership team estimate about 70 seats are more favorable than in Tennessee. If Democrats keep up the momentum and bring in their top recruits, that number could reach 100 by some high estimates.
A look at the numbers explains why Republicans are panicking. In five special elections for House seats this year, Democrats ran an average of 17 points better than Trump a year ago. To put that into context, there are 48 incumbent Republicans who won their House seats by 17 points or less in 2024.
Put another way: If this year’s results are repeated next year, current House Speaker Mike Johnson’s 219-213 Republican majority could well be shattered.
Add up last month’s blowout wins for Democratic candidates for governor in New Jersey and Virginia, the election of a Democratic socialist as New York City mayor, as well as successful results for California’s redistricting measure and some state legislative races, and it’s easy to see why Republicans are.
Part of the party’s disappointment in Van Epps’ victory is the significant investment the GOP establishment made to achieve that margin of victory. Johnson found himself rushing to Tennessee for an eleventh-hour Hail Mary, and a pro-Trump super PAC dropped $1.6 million into the race in the last two weeks.
GOP problems range from party-based frustration over the lack of transparency in the Jeffrey Epstein sex-trafficking scandal to widespread frustration with Trump administration policies, including tariff policies, military raids on immigrant communities, and increased military incursions into Venezuela.
Those frustrations are that rising health care subsidies could hurt families’ pockets and force many to go without coverage, driving up costs for neighborhoods.
The biggest factor, strategists on both sides acknowledge, is Trump. When he began his second term earlier this year, he had the support of 91% of Republicans, according to Gallup. Last month, it stood at 84%. (For reference, according to Gallup, Trump was enjoying a 95% job approval rating among Republicans in the weeks before he lost re-election in 2020.)
Among independent candidates, it’s even scarier. In the latest Gallup poll, Trump has dropped from a 46% job approval rating among Indians at the start of the year to 25%. In the weeks leading up to his 2020 defeat, his independents were at a solid 41%.
Congress has to pay the price. In March, 63% of Republicans approved of how Congress was doing its job. Last month, that was at 23%, according to Gallup. Among independents, the crash went from 25% in March to 15% in November. These are not numbers that support a steady-as-you-go climate indifference.
And it’s all before factory history that, with the lone exception of post-9/11, most presidents’ first election cycles after winning the White House are bad for their party.
So as Republicans reconvene this week, they’re grappling with how they can save their hides over the next 11 months in a political ecosystem driven almost entirely by a charming president and his endless need for attention. While the GOP base is growing weary of the Trump show, Democrats are exiting and more optimistic about ending Republican control of the House and Senate.
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Write in Philip Elliott at philip.elliott@time.com.
