There is doubt that the proposed deal with Russia, which is close to the front of Ukrainian forces, will bring about a lasting peace

DNIPROPETROVSK REGION, Ukraine (AP) — Moving between damp basements and muddy dugouts to fend off constant Russian attacks in a nearly 4-year-old war, weary Ukrainian soldiers say their motivation is strengthened by knowing they are fighting for a higher cause: defending their homeland.

But as negotiators try to hammer out a peace deal, troops also believe Russia is determined to conquer Ukraine — either now, or with new forces in a few years’ time — no matter what deal is reached.

And they also say Kiev must keep a large army to defend its now-800-mile (about 1,300-kilometer) front line.

“Ukraine’s armed forces are now the main barrier between the peaceful civilian life of Ukrainians and our bad neighbor,” said a 40-year-old artillery gunner who spoke to The Associated Press on the border between Dnipropetrovsk and Donetsk regions. He identified himself only by the call sign of “Celt”, in keeping with military protocol, and his exact location was not revealed in the condition.

Soldiers expressed strong doubts that Moscow could be trusted to abide by any peace deal. Without adequate security guarantees, such as NATO membership for Ukraine, they and military analysts believe a new Russian offensive with new troops and equipment is inevitable.

Looking ahead to Russian threats

From the dark, mud-walled crevices where he shelters to avoid the sound of enemy drones, Kelt fears any peace will be short-lived.

“This truce will be short-term, to restore the Russian army – for about three or five years – and they will come back,” said the former furniture salesman in Kiev, as the sound of cannon fire echoed around him.

Serhiy Filimonov, commander of the Da Vinci Wolves battalion, worried that a deal would give Russia everything it needed to attack again.

“I think it would be better for the Russians – to end the war, lift the sanctions, prepare for a new war and attack again,” he said. “I don’t believe there can be peace before Russia is destroyed or at least before the leadership changes.”

Ukraine’s growing workforce

Filimonov described how Russian forces had briefly entered the eastern city of Pokrovsk, a key logistics hub in the Donetsk region, but were pushed out. His brigade managed to hold its defensive line but was often let down by neighboring units filled with inexperienced recruits.

The Kremlin boasted on Monday that Russian forces had captured the city after more than a year of fighting, but Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky said in Paris that fighting was still ongoing.

US military analyst and academic Rob Lee said major Russian military success will depend on Ukraine’s ability to increase and maintain troop numbers.

“Ukraine lacks manpower, lacks reserves,” he said. “It only takes one Ukrainian brigade to really struggle, and then Russia can advance.”

Ukrainian military expert and fundraiser Taras Chamut told public broadcaster Suspilne on Friday that many battalions at the front are made up of only 20 fighters instead of the usual 400-800.

Although Ukraine may be mobilizing 30,000 recruits per month, many of them have been forced out of service or have proven unfit to replace front-line troops.

The main sites are still being held

However, Ukrainian forces are managing to hold ground in Pokrovsk, as well as places like Kupyansk and Vovchansk in the Kharkiv region – two forward sites that Russia has been trying to capture for a year, said Yuriy Fedorenko, commander of the Achilles UAV brigade fighting in the region.

As Russia poured tens of thousands of troops into the cities, he said the failure to capture them “testifies to the high motivation and resilience of the Ukrainian military.”

Russian President Vladimir Putin said last week that fighting would not stop until Ukraine withdraws its troops from the four provinces of Donetsk, Luhansk, Zaporizhia and Kherson region that Moscow illegally annexed in September 2022. Russian forces have captured only half of Zaporizhia and Don-Khersan.

The draft peace plan between the US and Russia states that Ukraine’s forces will be limited and that Kiev’s forces must effectively withdraw from the rest of Donetsk. Zelensky has since said that a later revised version could be “workable,” but it is unclear what the final document will contain.

Li, who regularly visits the front, said Russia is advancing faster in 2025 than in previous years, but it is not a given that Moscow will capture the remaining third of the Donetsk region in 2026.

“Wherever Russia advances, Ukraine prioritizes defense (and) they can hold out for a long time, but (then) Russia moves in other directions,” Lee explained, pushing Moscow’s advance through Donetsk in several directions simultaneously.

Ukraine still needs Western aid

From his mud pit, Kelt scoffed at the proposal to downsize Ukraine’s military, saying it would make it easier for Russia to “kill you” later than now.

But Ukraine’s current size of over a million troops would be nearly impossible without continued Western support. Since the war began in 2022, Ukraine has spent almost all of its tax revenue on food, clothing, housing and arming its army. The rest of its spending — health care, social programs, education, pensions and energy — is financed by Western grants and loans.

The European Union has allocated $50 billion in aid from 2024 to 2027 as part of the Ukraine Facilitation Program, but Kiev needs $83.4 billion for the military and $52 billion for state spending for 2026 and 2027, Glib Buriak said.

Ukraine’s economic future — including its ability to maintain an army — depends on what the peace plan includes in terms of Russia’s accumulated assets, Buriak said, noting the risk of a drop in aid if the war ends.

“How they will be managed will determine the economic situation of Ukraine in the coming years,” he said.

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Yehor Konovalov contributed reporting.