An expression of unbridled power comes no less than kidnapping a sitting president from his capital in the dead of night.
President Donald Trump has shown in a 74-word social media post that he can decisively, suddenly and possibly recklessly pursue his diverse and disparate foreign policy goals, with little regard for precedent, consequence or so it seems, for international law.
The operation follows a predictable, extreme, pattern for Venezuelan President Nicolas Maduro and his wife to face the U.S. court system from a heavily guarded location in Caracas for what the U.S. calls a fugitive, with a $50 million bounty on his head.
But there is one serious exception: Maduro is a head of state, whose nation is the victim of various ongoing US political objectives. Whatever the charge, it will always be a political sensation.
Successive White Houses want to topple Venezuela’s left-leaning, but autocratic and sometimes violent regime — whether to fight drug trafficking, or for their oil, or for regional alignment.
A second Trump term promoted the end of Maduro’s role as kingpin of a vast regional drug-trafficking network as key to its argument. But suggesting that Maduro simply relinquish power left them at odds: He cannot be both kingpin and someone who can step out of his role at the drop of a hat.
Even the evidence that Maduro was at the top of the regional tree was not as strong as the White House had hoped. Yes, Venezuela undoubtedly allows drug smuggling through its airspace and shores, bordering only Colombia, the top, global cocaine producer. But the cartels in Mexico and Colombia were big players — yet seemed to attract less U.S. military focus. The idea of somehow shutting down this multi-billion dollar industry in Venezuela — an industry that millions of Americans are weekly customers of — is unrealistically ambitious in itself. The incentive for smugglers is simply too great. They may anticipate disruption, or inconvenience, but cannot prevent it.
At the heart of this shocking move lies Washington’s broader ambitions for greater control of its near-abroad, which they call the updated Monroe Doctrine — with “Trump cooperation,” to cite the latest White House national security strategy. They have offered to bail out libertarian Argentine President Javier Maile, reviled leftist Colombian leader Gustavo Petro, clashed with Brazil’s Lula and sided with El Salvador’s authoritarian Buccele. But the Caracas operation is not a rhetorical triviality, but rather a violent extraction of political provocation.
Plant Venezuela is good for the U.S. hydrocarbon market, but oil is less of a guiding light for foreign policy in the United States, now itself a top producer. It’s not 2003. Venezuela’s resources will be a help, but not a golden talisman, its opposition leader Maria Corina Machado said.
A major, real trump for this task is “support” migration. At least 700,000 Venezuelan immigrants remain in the United States, despite recent bids to eliminate their temporary protected status. A stable, prosperous and peaceful Venezuela is a place where they can be returned, either forcibly or voluntarily. But we are far from that moment on Saturday morning.
As it stands, what comes next is unclear. Delsey Rodriguez, the vice president, is Maduro’s likely successor, but would she be willing to stomach the same risk of kidnapping or an immediate visit to the White House? On the streets of Venezuela, it is also uncertain whether it will ignite anti-American anger as the toll of the operation becomes clear, or enter days of celebration at the end of a dictatorship that has mismanaged Venezuela’s economy into freefall.
A side-effect is the effect the move will have on Trump’s place on the world stage, lacking confidence, focus, or ability to absorb (and keep secret) details. The operation was bold, well-planned (in that it succeeded) and showed for the second time this year that Trump is willing to take on ideas that his predecessors would have laughed out of the situation room. Strikes at Iran’s nuclear sites were similar external calls, but, so far, Tehran’s program appears to have been put on hold. Yes, Trump may act in a reckless, unprecedented and dangerous manner of escalation. But you cannot suggest that he lacks the courage to act, even if it feels foolish at the time.
That sends a message to Moscow and Beijing — both allies of Maduro to varying degrees — that they have let their friends collapse, without so much as a care package in the mail. Trump is not gun-shy, or unwilling to risk a wider conflict, if the outcome he deeply desires, or thinks is within reach.
It also shows the ongoing, unparalleled supremacy of the US military: whether it’s bin Laden in Abbottabad, or Ayman al-Zawahiri in Kabul, or Maduro in his own capital. And while Putin’s attempt to decapitate the Ukrainian government failed, leaving his armored vehicles on fire and a log-jam outside Kiev, Trump’s special forces have taken Maduro to court in New York. Whether the operation affects any calculus in Beijing to test Trump over Taiwan will become clear in the coming months. But they can’t count on Washington to sit out any attacks.
The excitement of putting a dictator on trial will soon fade and the real, real-world problems of everyday Venezuela loom large again. Maduro’s departure is a win for Trump, but chaos or collapse in his wake would be a huge loss. More important than America’s astonishing performance in the skies over Caracas on Saturday morning is planning “what else.”
Removing Maduro does not anoint a successor to a genuine popular mandate. Or resolve where the military’s loyalties lie now. Or the US under Maduro say hobble the colossus of drug traffickers. Instead, it demands quick answers about who leads, who fixes an economy with chronic, horrendous flaws, and who conveys to the Venezuelan people the lasting benefits of the horrific explosions that their young and old endure only in the dead of night.
This story has been updated with additional developments.
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