US intelligence indicates that China is preparing to ship weapons to Iran amid a fragile ceasefire, sources say

U.S. intelligence indicates that China is preparing to provide Iran with new air defense systems within the next few weeks, according to three people familiar with recent intelligence assessments.

The move would be a provocative move that Beijing said earlier this week helped broker a fragile cease-fire deal between Iran and the United States that would prevent war. President Donald Trump is also planning to visit China early next month to hold talks with Chinese President Xi Jinping.

Intelligence also points to how Iran may be using the ceasefire as an opportunity to replenish certain weapons systems with the help of key foreign partners.

Two sources told CNN there are indications Beijing is working to route shipments through third countries to hide their true origin.

The systems Beijing is preparing to hand over are shoulder-fired anti-air missile systems called MANPADs, the sources said, which posed an asymmetric threat to low-flying U.S. military aircraft during the five-week war and could again if the truce breaks down.

A spokesman for the Chinese embassy in Washington said, “China has not provided weapons to any side of the conflict; the information in question is false.”

“As a responsible major country, China consistently fulfills its international obligations. We urge the US side to refrain from baseless accusations, maliciously drawing connections and engaging in sensationalism; we hope that relevant parties will help de-escalate tensions.”

Earlier this week, an embassy spokesman told CNN that since the start of the US-Israeli-Iran war, Beijing has been “working to facilitate a ceasefire and an end to the conflict.”

At a press conference on Monday, Trump indicated that the F-15 fighter jet that was shot down by Iran last week was “shot down by a handheld shoulder-fired missile.” [a] heat-seeking missile, and Iran said it used a “new” air defense system to shoot down the jet, without giving further details. It is unclear whether the system is Chinese-made.

Sending MANPADS to Iran would increase China’s support after the US and Israel launched a joint military campaign in February.

Chinese companies continue to sell approved dual-use technology to the Iranians that enables them to build weapons and enhance navigation systems, the sources said, but direct transfers of weapons systems to the Chinese government would mark a new level of cooperation.

Trump is expected to meet with Xi in Beijing next month, and the White House said on Wednesday that high-level talks had taken place between the US and China since the Iran ceasefire talks were held earlier this week.

One of the sources familiar with the intelligence said that China clearly sees no real strategic value in entering the conflict and trying to protect Iran against the US and Israel, which they know it cannot win. Instead, Beijing is trying to position itself as a constant ally of Iran – on whose oil it is heavily dependent – while remaining outwardly neutral so it can maintain deniability once the war ends.

Sources said the Chinese may also argue that the air defense systems are defensive rather than offensive in nature, distinguishing Russia’s support. Moscow has provided support to the Iranian regime throughout the war in the form of intelligence sharing that has helped Iran actively target US forces and assets in the Middle East, CNN reported.

Iran has long maintained military and economic ties with China and Russia. Iran has provided extensive support to Russia in its war against Ukraine through the provision of Shahed drones and has also sold a large portion of its embargoed oil to China.

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