EV giant Tesla ( TSLA ) has never been short on promises for a bold future.
For years, Tesla fans have heard that story Robottaxi Another new growth engine will be as its core EV business cools.
Mostly, though, they’re told to be patient, so the skepticism surrounding it is understandable.
Dan Ives Believe that the moment can end.
Wedbush’s veteran tech analyst feels the EV behemoth is finally approaching a “defining moment” where its long-running robottaxi story evolves from vision to execution.
A big part of his optimism is that the early progress already made, along with a relatively favorable regulatory backdrop, is supported by a more precise production timeline.
If that happens, Ives predicts an eye-popping increase in Tesla’s valuation, potentially has exceeded 2 trillion dollars (from $1.53 trillion currently).
Tesla’s robottaxi vision has been written about rapidly over the years, but Ives believes the dismissal is becoming increasingly difficult to justify.
He argues that Tesla’s progress in autonomy is growing at an exciting pace, with momentum building that could play a major role in turning the bear case on its head.
In Ives’ view, AI and autonomous driving alone could be worth it About $1 trillionSeparated from Tesla’s powerful core vehicle business.
Related: Goldman Sachs Issues Urgent Take on Stock Market for 2026
Additionally, a recent Bank of America report cited by Teslarati, which showed a sum-of-the-parts (SOTP) framework, showed that approx. 45% of Tesla’s price Robottaxis was credited.
The next three to six months are crucial.
With regulatory hurdles clear, Ives expects concrete progress that is likely to shift the conversation from promises to implementation.
Additionally, Ives believes that despite increasing competition in the space, no competitor can currently replicate Tesla’s massive real-world driving data or production scale.
Furthermore, Wedbush speculates that Tesla may be coming to an end 70% control of the global autonomous market.
Waymo (alphabet): According to CNBC, the clear US scale leader with an estimated 2,500 robotaxis and approximately 450,000 paid rides per week.
Zoox (Amazon): Transition from pilots to broader public access, supported by free initial rides in parts of San Francisco.
Baidu Apollo Go / Pony.ai / WeRide / AutoX / SAIC: China is aggressively investing in this sector and has rolled out the green carpet for multiple robotaxi startups in at least 19 cities.
That power-pack combo underscores Wedbush’s long-term view on Tesla stock, where value is driven by robotaxis and robotics.
In his base case, Ives thinks Tesla’s valuation could go up in the past $2 trillion Within the next year, that indicates about 31% above current levels.
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In a more bullish scenario, Eves could even reach Tesla $3 trillion By the end of 2026, almost double the stock.
For perspective, Tesla’s market cap has actually decreased from $1.63 trillion On December 16, 2024 approx $1.53 trillion At the time of writing (approx $100 billion decline).
Morgan Stanley Tesla tweaked its price target to $425 despite a cut to equal weight, raising valuations while 2026 volumes look cool.
Bank of America Keeping a neutral rating bumping its Tesla target from $341 to $471, RobotTaxi and Optimus are driving the bulk of its SOTP.
Barclay repeated Equal-weighted with a $350 target, the distribution “probably won’t matter” with stock trading on Autonomy in 2026.
Stifel It bumped its price target from $483 to $508, maintaining a buy rating, citing a strong robotaxi roadmap and faster FSD progress with a 2026 forecast.
Related: History of Tesla and Its Stock: Timeline, Facts and Milestones
Robotaxis could be huge for Tesla, as they could fundamentally change its entire model. So instead of selling a car, Tesla can operate one High utilization transportation platformWhere software and services scale much faster than vehicles.
That’s why Wall Street blushes at that prospect.
More Tesla:
Morgan Stanley made the case that partial to full automation could create a $200 billion market by 2030, while McKinsey Autonomous driving could generate $300 billion to $400 billion in annual sales by 2035.
CEO Elon Musk has been vocal about the big stakes involved.
“The value of the company is primarily based on autonomy,” he said back in 2023.
October 2024: Tesla unveils its CyberCab concept, reaffirming production plans for 2026.
June 22, 2025: Tesla has launched a limited trial of paid robotaxi rides in Austin.
December 15, 2025: Musk confirms Austin test without front-seat safety monitors, a major milestone toward true driverless ops.
April 2026 (claimed): Musk says CyberCab production will begin in Austin.
Related: Intel CEO sparks controversy, debate
This story was originally published by TheStreet on December 16, 2025, where it first appeared in the Investing section. Add TheStreet as a preferred source by clicking here.
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