‘[We] can’t be ignored’

The United Kingdom has not done enough to prepare for the effects of rising temperatures, and a study has highlighted the worst-case scenarios the government should plan for.

According to The Guardian, the findings show how the UK could be vulnerable to these risks.

what’s going on

It is difficult to predict the probability of worst-case scenarios because you cannot calculate the uncertainty. University of Reading professor and study leader Nigel Armell compared his team’s analysis to the Bank of England’s analysis of the financial system.

A study published in the journal Earth’s Future found much worse conditions. One of them is where temperatures rise by 4 degrees Celsius (7.2 degrees Fahrenheit) and sea levels rise by 2 meters.

Rising temperatures are also weakening the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation, or AMOC. If it starts to fall in 2030, the UK will actually see a 6-degree Celsius (10.8-degree Fahrenheit) drop in temperatures. This will disrupt agriculture and water supplies and also put pressure on energy demand in winter.

According to The Guardian, scientists have said, “The collapse of even a fraction of the AMOC, the sub-polar gyre, would reduce UK temperatures by 2.5 degrees Celsius.”

If the Amazon saw a mass die-off releasing polluting gases into the atmosphere, it could send global temperatures up 4 degrees Celsius by 2100.

The Guardian noted, “This will result in extreme and prolonged heatwaves and droughts in the UK this summer.”

A quick cut of industrial pollutants could also have an impact, including a temperature increase of 0.75 °C (1.35 °F), because these pollutants block the sun.

The next worst case scenario is extreme weather events. Temperatures may rise by 6 degrees Celsius above average and rainfall may be three times the average.

Although extreme weather events such as these will always occur, rising temperatures will intensify them, as this worst-case scenario has shown.

Why is it important to plan for the worst case scenario?

While sea levels are already high, if the glaciers in Greenland and Antarctica melt even faster by 2100, it will flood UK cities with rising sea levels unlike any other scenario planners have in mind.

Additionally, a global temperature increase of 1.3°C (2.34) has seen more deaths in heat waves.

A 2021 House of Lords report indicated that the UK government was not paying enough attention to high-impact, low-probability worst-case scenarios.

In addition, the Committee on Climate Change, an independent advisory group, said the UK needed to adapt to a 2°C (3.6°F) rise, while assessing the risks in the event of a 4°C rise. The 2023 adaptation plans were described as weak.

What is being done about worst-case weather scenarios?

According to The Guardian, “The research was commissioned by the Met Office as part of the Government’s Climate Resilience Programme.”

It is important that this type of research on climate issues continues to better understand how to prepare for these potentially dangerous scenarios.

“Britain is planning against the worst-case scenario without testing equipment,” Armel said. “We now give decision-makers what they need to prepare for climate consequences that they hope will never happen, but cannot be ignored.”

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