What to Expect in Minnesota’s Special Legislative Election

WASHINGTON (AP) — Two special elections Tuesday in heavily Democratic Twin Cities-area state legislative districts will decide control of the Minnesota House of Representatives for the third time in less than a year.

Republicans hold a 67-65 advantage in the chamber after electing two Democratic representatives to other offices in November. According to the power sharing agreement between the two parties, the chamber has been operating since last year.

The contests come days after a U.S. Border Patrol agent shot and killed a man in Minneapolis, prompting protests and renewed calls for federal immigration officials to leave the state. In early January, an Immigration and Customs Enforcement officer shot and killed a Minneapolis woman as part of an ongoing federal immigration crackdown.

In District 47A, Democrat Shelly Buck is the only candidate on the ballot, though voters have the option of voting for a write-in candidate. Buck is a former environmental nonprofit executive and former chairman of the Prairie Island Tribal Council.

The district is east of St. Paul. It lies mostly within Washington County but includes a portion of Ramsey County. In 2024, both Democratic state Reps. Amanda Hemmingsen-Jaeger and Democratic presidential candidate Kamala Harris carried District 47A with nearly 61% of the vote in their respective races. Hemmingsen-Jaeger won a special election to the state Senate in 2025.

In District 64A, the candidates are Democrat Meg Luger-Nicolai and Republican Dan Walsh. Luger-Nicolai is a labor attorney who represented the statewide teachers union. Walsh runs a real estate asset management company and has worked in cyber security and technology sales. He was the GOP candidate for the seat in 2022 and 2024.

The district lies entirely within Ramsey County and spans most of the distance between St. Paul and Minneapolis. Democratic State Rep. Kaoli Harr and Harris won the district in 2024 with more than 83% of the vote. He was elected mayor of St. Paul in 2025.

With Buck the only candidate on the ballot in District 47A, The Associated Press will consider the contest uncontested and call the race as soon as polls close unless there is any sign of an organized write-in effort for another candidate.

In District 64A, Walsh needs to do much better than about 15% and 17% of the vote in his 2022 and 2024 runs, respectively. With nearly all votes expected to be released in just one or two batches, a race call could be possible at the first sign of a heavy margin.

The Associated Press does not make projections and will only announce a winner after determining there is no scenario that would allow the candidates to close the gap. If no race is called, the AP will continue to cover newsworthy developments such as candidate withdrawals or victory announcements. In doing so, the AP will make it clear that it has not yet declared a winner and explain why.

There is no automatic recount for state legislative races in Minnesota. If the margin is less than 0.5% of the total vote, the losing candidate can request a publicly funded recount. The AP may declare a winner in a race eligible for a recount if it determines the lead is too large or a legal challenge to change the result.

Here are some key facts about the election and the data points the AP Decision Desk will monitor during the counting process:

When will the polls close?

8 pm local time, which is 9 pm ET.

What is on the ballot?

The AP will provide vote results and announce the winners of the special election for Minnesota State House Districts 47A and 64A.

Who will vote?

Special elections are open to voters in state House districts 47A and 64A. Minnesota allows voters to register at their polling place on Election Day.

What does voting and advance voting look like?

House districts 47A and 64A each had about 28,000 registered voters as of June 1, 2025.

In District 47A, about 23,000 voters cast ballots in the 2024 general election and about 19,000 voters in 2022. About half of the ballots in 2024 were cast before Election Day, compared to about 31% in the 2022 midterm elections.

In District 64A, about 25,000 voters voted in 2024 and more than 21,000 voters in 2022. About 41% of ballots were cast before Election Day in 2024, compared to about 27% in the 2022 midterm elections.

By Thursday night, 300 votes have been cast in District 47A and about 400 votes in District 64A.

How long does counting usually take?

In the 2022 general election, AP first reported results in District 47A at 10:49 pm ET and in District 64A at 11:12 pm ET. The last vote update of the night in District 47A was at 11:50 pm ET and in District 64A at 11:39 pm ET, each with more than 99% of the total votes counted.

In the 2024 general election, AP first reported results in both Districts 47A and 64A at 1:09 a.m. ET. Tabulation in both the districts ended at 2:29 pm and more than 99% of the total votes were counted.

When are early and absentee ballots issued?

In previous elections in both Ramsey and Washington counties, absentee ballot results were released overnight with in-person election day voting.