Washington – Voters head to the polls Tuesday in Middle Tennessee for the final 2025 primary in a race that could be a referendum on President Trump.
Republican candidate Matt Van Epps, a combat veteran, and Democrat Aftyn Behn, a Tennessee state representative, are vying for a seat in Tennessee’s 7th Congressional District to replace former GOP Rep. Mark Green, who resigned in July. Green has represented the district, which stretches from parts of Nashville to the state borders of Kentucky and Alabama and includes several rural counties, since 2019. He won his most recent race by more than 20 points.
Although the election was generally considered a safe win for Republicans, polls showed a closer-than-expected race in the Volunteer state, with some single-digit race profiles. Meanwhile, millions of dollars have been poured into outside spending, while top figures from both parties have stumped for candidates in recent days.
Still, a Democratic victory in the deep-red Tennessee district would be an uphill climb. But viewers will be watching to see if the race comes within a one-point margin as a possible harbinger of what could happen in next year’s election.
Indicators for the medium term
The results of Tuesday’s special election will all but be seen as a definitive indicator of what will happen in next year’s midterm elections, as Democrats build on a string of recent victories.
Conventional political wisdom dictates that the party that controls the White House often loses ground in midterm elections. And the Tennessee special election follows an overwhelming showing by Democrats in a special election in September, as well sweep Key races in the November election have been pointed to as evidence of a tide of change among voters after the party hurt the 2024 election.
In last month’s race, Democrats Abigail Spanberger and Mickey Sherrill won their gubernatorial races handily in Virginia and New Jersey, while in New York City, Democratic Socialist Zohran Mamdani won the mayor’s race.
With the momentum in Tennessee, even a narrow loss in Tuesday’s special election will be seen as strengthening Democrats’ momentum in the midterms.
A special election with a national focus
Tuesday’s special election has drawn national attention, with visits and phone rallies by high-ranking members of both parties gathering in the district in recent days to support candidates, along with millions of dollars in outside spending.
House Speaker Mike Johnson stumped for Van Epps in the district on Monday, framing the race as a difference between the GOP “keeping our promises” and Democrats imposing their “radical” agenda.
At one point, Johnson called a “friend” who became president. “We have to win this seat,” Mr. Trump told the crowd.
“Let’s make this a massive win. The whole world is watching Tennessee right now and they’re watching your district,” Mr. Trump said. “It’s a big vote, it’s to show something, and it’s to show that the Republican Party is stronger than ever.”
Representing Tennessee in Congress, former Vice President Al Gore and Rep. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez was among the Democrats who spoke at a phone rally for Behn on Monday. In November’s election, Gore said, “Bipartisan and independent voters have signaled in a landslide that they are sick and tired of Trump’s insanity and cruelty.”
“So it’s no surprise that the president is freaking out about tomorrow’s election here in Tennessee,” Gore said. “The stage has been set, and I believe Tennesseans are determined to wrest decency, self-respect and common sense from the most corrupt and dangerous president in American history.”
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