shares of Palantir Technologies (NASDAQ:PLTR) It rose 1.59% in the previous five trading sessions to 3.54% in the previous five sessions. This year, the stock is up more than 158%, and since its October 2022 IPO, PLTR has gained an impressive 2,010.11%.
When the company reported Q3 earnings on Nov. 3, it beat on the top and bottom lines with EPS of 21 cents versus 17 cents, and revenue of $1.18 billion versus $1.09 billion expected. Palantir issued strong guidance, crediting growth in adoption of its AI software platform. Meanwhile, it announced that government sales — which are essential to Palantir’s growth — rose 52% compared to the same quarter last year.
In September, it was reported that the company had agreed to a £1.5 billion defense contract with the UK, which did not back down from the announcement in early August that the US military was singling out 75 contracts in a single 10-year arrangement worth £10 billion. However, the so-called smart money has been selling the stock recently, leaving Palantir’s institutional ownership at 56.44%. For example, JPMorgan recently cut its position in PLTR by more than 32%, while T. Rowe Price cut its position by about 24%.
While the stock’s forward P/E ratio of 192.14 may be concerning, Palantir’s federal contracts and aerospace ties are expected to sustain growth. With earnings lagging behind, the emerging trends seen in the company’s Q3 results could serve as the basis for further rewards for shareholders.
However, PLTR’s market multiple may take an investor nearly half a century to recoup their initial investment, assuming earnings remain constant. But the company’s assumption — and Wall Street analysts — is that earnings will continue to grow. So with concerns about its valuation, what can investors expect from Palantir over the next year? 24/7 Wall St. Did some analysis, so let’s see.
Palantir’s government business line accounts for more than half of its revenue, including existing contracts between the AI firm and the US Department of Defense, Immigration and Customs Enforcement (ICE), the Department of Agriculture, the FBI, the CDC, the US military and the UK Ministry of Defence.
The company’s explosive commercial revenue growth shows it is able to sustainably scale without relying heavily on federal contracts. It also provides services to many industries, including energy, data protection, health and life sciences, insurance, hospital operations, retail, semiconductors, telecommunications and utilities.
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The AI environment is ripe for growth, though, in which Palantir should play a leading role. According to Grand View Research, the AI market is expected to reach $1.811 trillion by the end of the decade, good for a 35.9% compound annual growth rate (CAGR) between 2025 and 2030. The global market size of AI in 2024 was estimated to be $279.2 billion, which means that the CAGR and the end of the market, as estimated by 2020, are expected to increase. $379.4 billion. Companies like Palantir, which focus on broad AI applications in a variety of industries, should see the lion’s share of that growth.
Not only has the company seen tremendous growth, it foresees sustained momentum that will help continue that pattern over the next year. High-profile contracts such as the recently signed Army and ICE agreements, as well as NATO’s adoption of its AI-enabled military systems, highlight its important role in national security. President Trump’s emphasis on defense and government efficiency, exemplified by the Department of Government Efficiency led by Elon Musk, positions Palantir as an AI software provider, boosting investor confidence amid tariff-related market challenges.
Additionally, the company has a commercial segment. Launched in 2023, its Artificial Intelligence Platform (AIP) empowers enterprises in healthcare, finance and manufacturing to use AI for data analytics. Palantir’s focus on operational efficiency has improved profitability. Its software-as-a-service model, with high-margin recurring revenue, supports scalability across government and commercial customers. The company’s ability to rapidly deploy AIP, as demonstrated by a 69% increase in customer count to 593, increases revenue predictability. This profit, along with $3.9 billion in cash reserves, fuels R&D and market expansion, bolsters investor optimism.
Since its IPO, Palantir has seen unusual and exponential share appreciation. The bulk of that growth came between February 2023 and February 2025, the period in which the stock hit its then-all-time high on February 18. Since its year-to-date low on January 13, PLTR has risen nearly 189%.
Most Wall Street analysts are cautious about the stock, though. Sixteen analysts covering PLTR have given it a consensus “hold” rating, three have given it a “buy” rating, 11 have given it a “hold” rating and two have given it a “sell” rating. However, the price targets for AI Dear represent a wide spread of views, with the high-end price target at $255, the average price target at $187.87 and the low-end price target at $50.00.
| Guess what | Price target | % change from current value |
| less | $50.00 | -74.24% |
| the mean | $187.87 | -3.22% |
| high | $255.00 | 31.35% |
Palantir has made several significant announcements in the past few months, including its $10 billion Army contract and $30 million deal with ICE to develop a system to help deportations, as well as partnerships with TWG Global and xAI to bring AI to the financial services industry. The news boosted the stock price in a short period of time. But just as the broader market’s outlook is clouded, so is Palantir’s. That is reflected in the Wall Street consensus “Hold” rating.
Palantir calls for at least a 68% increase in commercial revenue to $1.178 billion, CEO Alex Karp said, adding, “We’re providing an operating system for the modern enterprise in the age of AI.” While Palantir faces competition from both large AI big data firms, as well as smaller, fast-growing AI data analytics shops, the company can be seen as engaging in government and large enterprise positions.
24/7 Wall StThe one-year price target for Palantir Technologies is bearish at $168, representing a potential downside of 13.46% from today’s stock price. Those figures are based on Palantir developing premier AI software, but the falling cost of AI and the proliferation of large language models have created lower barriers to entry in decision-making software. We see projected revenue growth rates moderate from $3.9 billion in 2025 to $11.9 billion in 2030, with modest EPS growth of $0.58 in 2025 to $1.44 in 2030.
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