Why Trump’s comments about discussing Taiwan arms sales with China have raised concerns

Comments by US President Donald Trump that he is discussing possible arms sales to Taiwan with Chinese President Xi Jinping have raised concerns in Taipei as the island democracy relies on US support in the face of China’s territorial claims.

On Monday, Trump told reporters he was discussing a possible sale with the Chinese leader, an unexpected statement that experts say could violate decades-old foreign policy principles that define the United States’ relationship with self-ruled Taiwan.

“I’m talking to him about it. We had a good conversation, and we’ll make a decision soon,” Trump said when asked about Xi’s opposition to the arms sale. He said, “He has a very good relationship with President Xi.”

His comments have sparked debate among some experts and politicians over whether they signal a possible shift in US policy toward Taiwan ahead of Trump’s planned visit to China in April. Here is some reference:

A ‘dangerous example’?

Trump advising Xi about arms sales to Taiwan could violate the so-called Six Assurances, a set of non-binding U.S. policy principles created under President Ronald Reagan in 1982 that have helped guide U.S. relations with Taipei, said William Yang, a senior Northeast Asia analyst.

The second of the six assurances states that the US “does not agree to consult with the People’s Republic of China on arms sales to Taiwan.”

“It’s basically been implemented by several US presidents since Ronald Reagan and continued to sell arms to Taiwan without really discussing it with China over the past few decades,” Yang said.

He added that Trump could create a “dangerous precedent” by allowing Beijing to make demands regarding US arms sales to Taiwan.

Taiwan’s government, which is celebrating a week-long Lunar New Year holiday, did not respond to Trump’s remarks.

China has condemned US arms sales to Taiwan

The tension is rooted in China’s claim to Taiwan, which China needs to assert by force if necessary. Beijing prohibits any country with which it has diplomatic ties from having formal relations with Taipei and regularly sends warships and military aircraft near the island.

Although it has no official relationship with Taiwan, the US is the island’s biggest unofficial ally and arms supplier. Taiwan is bound by domestic law to provide sufficient hardware to deter any armed attack from the mainland.

In December, the Trump administration announced a record arms sales package to Taiwan worth more than $11 billion.

China bristled at the deal, and in a phone conversation with Trump earlier this month, Xi warned that “the US must handle the issue of arms sales to Taiwan prudently.”

According to a readout of the call published by the Chinese Foreign Ministry, Xi emphasized that “the Taiwan issue is the most important issue in Sino-US relations.”

The Three Pillars of US-Taiwan Relations

In the absence of formal diplomatic relations with Taiwan, U.S. policies toward the self-governing island are based on three pillars, said Lev Nachman, a political science professor at National Taiwan University.

The first pillar, and the only one formalized into law, is the Taiwan Relations Act. It was passed by Congress in 1979, the year the US established formal diplomatic relations with China and severed ties with Taiwan. The act obligates the US to provide Taiwan with the means to defend itself, considering all threats to the island as a security concern.

Second, the Three Communiqués are three statements made by the US and Chinese governments in the 1970s and 1980s covering various issues, including Taiwan. Through communiqués, the US has acknowledged that there is only one China, without recognizing Beijing’s sovereignty over Taiwan. The Three Communiqué forms the basis of US strategic ambiguity on Taiwan, leaving the US in place to support the island while breaking diplomatic agreements with China.

Finally, the Six Assurances were formulated as a means of assuring continued US support for Taiwan, and are believed to have been endorsed by all US presidents since Reagan.

Hu Tiang Boon, associate professor of international relations at Singapore’s Nanyang Technological University, suggests that Trump’s comments could be China’s say on the volume of arms sales to Taiwan.

“Even if the US ultimately approves the arms sales packages to Taiwan, this is a disturbing development, especially from Taiwan’s perspective because this is an issue that will be negotiated,” Hu said.

Taiwan will feature prominently in Trump’s visit to China

Trump is set to make his first visit to China in his current term in April, and Taiwan will likely feature prominently in his meeting with Xi, along with issues such as trade and access to advanced technologies.

Uncertainty over whether Trump will address the issue of arms sales to Taiwan during his visit is set to heighten doubts on the island about whether the U.S. will intervene in a possible Chinese attack, Yang said.

“This further increase of suspicion and concern about the United States within Taiwan is actually China’s goal,” he added.

The island’s independence-leaning government, led by President Lai Ching-tae, is already struggling to secure payments for existing US arms sales packages as the budget stalls in parliament.

Taiwan’s opposition lawmakers said Monday they will review the $40 billion special defense budget when they reconvene after a recess on February 23.

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This version corrects Trump’s statement “I’m talking to him about it. We had a good conversation” from previous versions that were incorrectly quoted as “I’ve talked to him about it, had a good conversation.”

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AP reporter Huizhong Wu in Bangkok contributed to this report.