The Republican Congress is pushing toward another self-imposed deadline, even as the House and Senate are unable to reach a deal to stop impending health care premium spikes for millions of Americans starting Jan. 1.
There is another government funding drop-off at the end of next month when arbitration on a deal in November will end the longest government shutdown in history. While Congress is unlikely to face another battle of that magnitude, the road ahead remains difficult for Speaker Mike Johnson and Senate Majority Leader John Thune.
That’s because Congress still needs to come up with another spending bill to keep agencies open and basic services open, a relatively simple prospect that it has repeatedly proven unable to manage. Lawmakers on both sides of the aisle have withheld their votes for such proposals this past year, either in hopes of extracting political concessions or because of reservations about changes in funding levels for various agencies and programs.
The result: Paychecks for thousands of federal workers and essential parts of the welfare safety net also become political footballs with increasing frequency.
January’s shutdown fight is unlikely to meet the fury of the fall, when Democrats battled in October and November over a public exchange of the Affordable Care Act over the expiration of federal subsidies for health care plans.
Mike Johnson faces a potential revolt from conservatives in his caucus on the January funding deadline (AP).
With those subsidies set to expire next week, Congress left town after two Republican majorities failed to propose legislation that could pass in the Senate — with Democrats attending bipartisan talks and calling on their colleagues to press ahead. Senate Minority Leader Chuck Schumer told reporters that his caucus would not mount resistance like the one he mounted last year, then dropped (stirring anger from voters and House Democrats).
“As of January 1, that’s a different time than before because of the ACA [subsidies] Expired,” Schumer said Punchbowl News In an interview last week. “On the other hand, we want to do an appropriations bill. That’s a Jan. 30 deadline…We’re trying to work with the Republicans.”
It remains to be seen whether those negotiations will go beyond negotiations over Obamacare subsidies. In the House, Mike Johnson’s speakership seems less than ever, with members in open rebellion and resignations on a semi-regular basis.
Johnson has two options to pass the legislation before Jan. 30. He can rely solely on Republican votes or pass legislation with bipartisan support. Both options come with problems.
Senate Minority Leader Chuck Schumer said Democrats in his chamber will not block a vote on government funding legislation to end Obamacare subsidies in January (Heather Diehl/Getty Images)
A key member of his caucus and a recurring thorn in his side, Marjorie Taylor Greene, will leave the chamber on Jan. 5, thinning his numbers to low single digits ahead of the shutdown deadline and making it all the more likely that Johnson will be forced to rely on Democratic votes. A member of his leadership team, Rep. Elise Stefanik recently announced that she will not seek re-election while dropping out of the New York gubernatorial race in what is increasingly being projected as a wave year for Democrats.
House Democratic Minority Leader Hakeem Jeffries presides over a caucus that remains dissatisfied with the perceived dedication of his colleagues in the Senate. He has indicated that Democratic votes will be largely, if not entirely, tied to expanding health care plan payments.
Republican leaders in the House are now worried that their colleagues in the Senate waited too long to reach out to Democrats on a funding bill, similar to negotiations on Obamacare subsidies. Many in both chambers want to pass a long-term resolution, staving off another fight by a few months, but that prospect becomes more difficult with each passing day.
“We wasted a lot of time because the Senate still isn’t negotiating,” said Rep. Tom Cole (R-Okla.), who chairs the House Appropriations Committee. politics Last week. “When they are ready to negotiate, we can move quickly.”
Senators from both parties say negotiations were still focused on full-year funding packages as members went home for the holidays last week.
Lisa Murkowski, one of the Republican senators who voted for a clean extension of Obamacare subsidies, said she is hopeful the chamber will make progress on the issue next month (Getty Images)
Rep. Rosa DeLauro, Cole’s Democratic counterpart on the powerful House panel that leads funding bill negotiations in the lower chamber, faulted Republicans in both chambers.
She pointed to support for Johnson and Cole’s funding bills last year that weren’t expected to pass with Democratic support because of the speaker’s efforts on bills to meet House Freedom Caucus demands for lower spending levels. Johnson eventually passed a clean CR, absent those policy victories for the far right, only to see Democrats stage their own coup in the Senate in November.
Cole said politics That House GOP leadership aims to keep funding toplines for federal agencies at or below levels approved for the previous fiscal year. It’s a sign that Johnson will try to appeal to Republican fiscal hawks rather than Democrats, though it risks passing unexpected legislation in the Senate, as well as a rebellion within his caucus. But Cole also said he wants the funding bill talks to be “bipartisan”, meaning conservatives could also be left unsatisfied. Leadership remains under pressure to pass legislation that survives the Senate’s 60-vote filibuster threshold, which requires the participation of seven Senate Democrats.
Tom Cole says he wants funding bill talks to be bipartisan (Copyright 2023 Associated Press. All rights reserved.)
“We’re not trying to jam anyone,” he said Punchbowl News. “There are a lot of raw emotions after the closure. We are trying to restore trust within the committee.”
One faction that could play a key role in the coming weeks is the GOP’s centrist and frontline members, who last week embraced a discharge petition with Democrats to force a vote to extend the Affordable Care Act subsidies and staged their own defiant show against Johnson.
Those members, who already face the biggest political risk in the Republican caucus, could force Johnson to drop muscle conservatives from the discussion. But it could mean the end of Johnson’s speakership if those same conservatives refuse to get on board.
A GOP senator who supports extending Affordable Care Act subsidies predicted movement on that issue in early January, which many say will significantly change the dynamics around the Jan. 30 deadline for CR or passage of long-term funding packages.
“We’re seeing some great action in the House … I’m happy with that. I think that will help the Senate respond to the first of the new year, and I’m looking forward to that.” Sen. Lisa Murkowski told reporters last week, according to the mountain
