As the weekend approaches, the US and Iran appear to be closing in on an agreement to end the seven-week war.
Then President Donald Trump did exactly what his staff repeatedly said he wouldn’t: He appeared to try to negotiate with the press, posting on social media about ongoing talks and speaking to several reporters on the phone Friday morning as Pakistani mediators updated him on ongoing talks with Iranian officials in Tehran.
He claimed that Iran had agreed to several provisions that sources familiar with the talks said had not yet been finalized. He also insisted that Tehran agreed to several controversial US demands – including that it agree to hand over enriched uranium – and announced an imminent end to the war.
Iranian officials outwardly rejected many of those claims and denied they were preparing for the next round of talks, quickly tanking growing optimism for a deal. It is not clear where the peace talks will go from here.
Some Trump officials privately acknowledged to CNN that the president’s public comments have been detrimental to the talks, given the sensitivity of the talks and Iranians’ deep distrust of the US. Compounding matters: U.S. officials suspect a split between Iran’s negotiating team, led by Parliament Speaker Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf and Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi, and Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps, raising questions about who might ultimately sign the deal.
“The Iranians didn’t appreciate the POTUS talks through social media and they didn’t appear to be signing on to issues they haven’t yet agreed to, and they’re not popular with people back home,” a person familiar with the talks told CNN, adding that Iranians are particularly concerned that they appear vulnerable.
Among the president’s claims: Trump told Bloomberg that Iran has agreed to an “indefinite” suspension of its nuclear program. He told CBS News that Tehran “agreed on everything” and would work with the U.S. to remove its enriched uranium. And he told Axios that “there will probably be a meeting over the weekend,” adding, “I think we’ll have a deal in the next day or two.”
The tenuous ceasefire between Washington and Tehran was tested once again on Sunday when a US guided-missile destroyer shot and captured an Iranian cargo ship after it tried to bypass the US naval blockade in the Gulf of Oman, further angering the Iranians.
Now, with a two-week cease-fire set to expire, Trump again faces a decision: Accept a deal, even an incomplete one, or escalate the conflict he once said would now end.
As of Monday, Iranian officials appeared less resistant to further talks. But the outline of any pending deal remains unclear.
“The United States has never come close to a good deal with Iran, unlike the terrible deal the Obama administration struck because of President Trump’s negotiating skills,” White House press secretary Carolyn Levitt said. “Anyone who can’t see President Trump’s strategy of playing the long game is either stupid or willfully ignorant.”
Trump has set several red lines for the talks, including Iran halting its uranium enrichment and surrendering its stockpile of bomb-grade material. Meanwhile, Tehran has insisted on being allowed to maintain its control over the Strait of Hormuz and has demanded the lifting of US sanctions.
In the first round of talks, US negotiators proposed a 20-year moratorium on Iran’s uranium enrichment, a source familiar with the discussions said. Iran responded with a proposal for a five-year moratorium, which the U.S. rejected, according to a U.S. official.
A recent proposal from the Iranian side would include a 10-year freeze on enrichment, followed by another decade in which Iran would agree to enrich only to levels below weapons grade, a person familiar with the discussions said. Meanwhile, Trump has told reporters that he wants no enrichment indefinitely and is against a 20-year freeze.
The Trump administration is considering unfreezing $20 billion in Iranian assets as part of ongoing negotiations with Tehran, CNN previously reported. The move would come in exchange for Iran handing over its stockpile of highly enriched uranium.
How flexible each side is on their terms will ultimately determine whether an agreement can be reached. For Trump, one imperative is not to agree to a deal comparable to the Obama-era Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action, an Iran nuclear deal that he withdrew in 2018 and has consistently derided as weak.
At the very least, negotiators hope to produce an outline agreement between the US and Iran that will then lead to more detailed talks on the finer points of the deal in the coming weeks. That approach has critics, however, who warn that the discussions could be portrayed as a game for time as Iran discovers some of the missile systems buried during the war.
Trump insisted Monday that he was not feeling pressure to reach a deal, despite the war’s growing unpopularity with the American public and the role it played in high gas prices.
“I’m not under any pressure, though, it will all happen, relatively soon!” He wrote in Sathya Samaj.
It was unclear as of Monday afternoon whether any of the advisers had shared concerns with the president that his interest in the posting could be detrimental to negotiations. By afternoon, he had posted several times on Truth Social about the war, totaling more than 900 words.
His public comments continue to add uncertainty surrounding the talks.
At one point early Sunday morning, Trump told a series of callers that Vice President J.D. Vance would not participate in this round of talks, citing unspecified security concerns. Simultaneously, two senior officials in his administration – UN Ambassador Mike Waltz and Energy Secretary Chris Wright – appeared on television to confirm that Vance would indeed lead a delegation to Islamabad, as he had for the first round.
Turns out they were right and Trump was wrong. “The situation has changed,” a White House official told CNN when asked what happened.
A day later, Trump offered another confusing update, this time about the whereabouts of his No. 2. He told reporters calling from the New York Post that Vance was in the air and preparing to touch down in Pakistan within hours for talks. Moments later, Vance’s motorcade—with the vice president inside—arrived at the West Wing.
“We expect the delegation to be on its way soon,” a White House official said.
People familiar with the plans said Vance plans to leave for Washington on Tuesday for the talks, which Trump claimed Sunday would take place Monday evening.
But the talks are now on track to start in Islamabad on Wednesday morning. On a smaller note, sources cautioned that the situation remains “fluid”.
So, too, is the fate of the two-week ceasefire, which is coming to an end soon. When, exactly, that deadline also appears to have changed, based on a phone conversation Trump had with a reporter on Monday. He had originally announced a cease-fire on April 7 at 6:32 p.m., marking the two-week mark in Washington on Tuesday evening.
But Trump told Bloomberg that the ceasefire expires “Wednesday evening Washington time,” allowing for another 24 hours of negotiations before choosing whether to make good on his threat to blow up Iranian bridges and power plants as a potential war crime. He added that it was “highly unlikely” that he would extend it further.
But he went ahead with whether he would agree to extend the ceasefire or not. During a question-and-answer session with reporters last week, he was asked five separate times whether he would extend the ceasefire, and offered three different answers:
“If there is no agreement, the fight begins again,” he said definitively at one point. Later, he suggested that he would offer an extension if needed: “If we need it, I’ll do it.” In another response, he suggested the question was moot given the state of the negotiations: “We’ll see. I don’t know if we’ll have to. Ideally, we won’t.”
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