America is burning the weapons it needs in the war with China in Iran. Here are the latest estimates.

• Experts say the US has used a large number of major weapons in its war with Iran.

• That’s enough of a fight, but “the risk — which lasts for many years — lies in future wars,” they said.

• Many of those weapons will be critical against China, and they take a long time to replenish.

The U.S. is using critical weapons against Iran at such a high rate that it could face risks in a future war — especially with China, defense experts warn.

The U.S. military “heavily used” seven major weapons in the 39 days of its air and missile campaign against Iran before the tenuous ceasefire took effect, two war experts at the Center for Strategic and International Studies said in a new report.

The U.S. military has “enough missiles to continue fighting this war under any plausible scenario,” they wrote, looking at weapons stockpiles. “The risk — which lasts for many years — lies in future wars.”

The problem is how many weapons are used and how long it takes to replace them.

“These missiles will also be critical to a potential Western Pacific conflict,” said CSIS researchers Mark Kancian and Chris Park.

“Even before the Iran war, stockpiles were considered insufficient to fight a rival rival. That shortage is even more acute now, and it will take more time to build stockpiles to levels sufficient for a war with China.”

Reduced stockpiles also affect supplies to Ukraine and allies, and ultimately, “the United States will compete with countries that want to replenish and expand inventories,” they said.

End stores

The seven major weapons, long-range ground attack weapons or air and missile defense weapons, “have been highly effective in fighting this war, and the costs have been correspondingly high,” experts said. The report found that the US may have spent more than half of the four prewar weapons.

On defense, the United States had about 360 Terminal High Altitude Area Defense, or THAAD, interceptors before the war, which had been reduced by previous conflicts, and about 190 to 290 were used during this period, the researchers estimated, relying on publicly available information, including Pentagon budget documents.

PAC-3 interceptors have also been used at a high rate for the popular Patriot air defense system, with the US entering the war with about 2,330 and using up to 1,430, although it may still have older versions.

Interceptor missiles have seen increasing demand worldwide, and there was concern about their stocks even before the war. Ukraine has already warned of severe shortages and expressed concern about how US use of weapons against Iran would affect its supplies.

Before the war, the US had more than 400 ship-launched SM-3 interceptor missiles and has deployed between 130 and 250. Use of the SM-6 has decreased, down to 370 out of approximately 1,160.

For offensive strikes, the US had about 90 precision strike missiles (PrSMs) before the war and an estimated 40 to 70 have been used. It is a new weapon that saw its first combat use in this conflict.

Another weapon is the Tomahawk land-attack cruise missile, for which the report estimates that the US had more than 3,000 in its inventory before the Iran war and more than 850 were used in the conflict.

And the United States had more than 4,000 Joint Air-to-Surface Standoff Missiles (JASSMs), a long-range cruise missile, in its inventory before the war and about 1,000 have been used, the report said.

Replacing them is slow

America is working to increase production. The White House announced plans in March to quadruple production of some major weapons, and manufacturers have outlined the increase.

Lockheed Martin says it will increase THAAD interceptor production capacity from 96 to 400 a year over the next seven years, and Tomahawk maker RTX will increase annual production to more than 1,000 and SM-6 production to more than 500 a year. There are also plans to ramp up production of the Patriot PAC-3 interceptor by 2030.

Lockheed Martin has also increased PrSM production and has agreed to quadruple production.

The CSIS report warned that “unless this increased production is available, the United States will be faced with options for allocating production to meet demands.”

Much of that expansion depends on new funding from Congress, and production will still take time.

Based on five-year average production rates, the report provided an estimate of how long it would take to replace the weapons. For JASSMs, the researchers estimated 48 months; 42 months for PAC-3s; and 53 months for THAAD. The shortest was the Tomahawks at 47 months.

“Many of these systems are limited by production capacity, so production lead times are even longer,” they said.

Franz-Stefan Gaddy, a defense expert at the Center for a New American Security, also warned on Wednesday that it would take four to five years to replenish US precision weapons stockpiles. Others have been sounding the alarm since long before the war began.

America may be vulnerable in future wars

According to experts, the US has enough weapons to continue its actions against Iran.

But many of the weapons are being freed up that are critical to a fight against allies like China, especially for countering ballistic missiles, where the US has few options.

For the seven major weapons assessed, “large numbers are also needed for future conflicts in the Western Pacific. Many allies and partners also use these systems, creating competition for production,” the researchers said.

In a war with China, the US would need long-range strikes long enough to defeat and penetrate Chinese defenses, as well as significant defenses to counter its substantial missile arsenal.

This assessment, like others before it, said a high-intensity war with China could consume US weapons faster than a war with Iran.

The U.S. military could move assets back to the Pacific after the Iran war and rebuild inventories, “but it will take many years to restore depleted stockpiles and then achieve desired inventory levels.”

“Prewar inventories were already inadequate,” the CSIS report said. “Today’s level will hamper U.S. actions in the event of a future conflict.”

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