The Air National Guard is pushing Congress to increase fighter numbers as it seeks to modernize its aging inventory. With the Air Force feeling the effects of years of underinvestment in new fighter jets, and China presenting a major pacing challenge, the move is the latest effort to ensure the service can keep up with numbers and capabilities.
According to a report from Air and Space Force MagazineAir National Guard adjutant generals from more than 20 states sent a letter to Congress last week requesting multiyear funding for the acquisition of between 72 and 100 new fighters each year.
An F-15C assigned to the 123rd Fighter Squadron, Portland Air National Guard Base, Oregon, taxis on the runway at Nellis Air Force Base in Nevada, while an F-15EX assigned to the 85th Test and Evaluation Squadron, Eglin Air Force Base, Florida prepares. US Air Force photo by William R. Lewis William Lewis
These numbers would be a significant increase over recent years: Not since 1998 has the Air Force bought more than 72 new fighters in a single year.
“The United States Air Force is the oldest, smallest and least prepared in its 78-year history,” the letter said. “We must build a fighting force that will win.”
Specifically, the letter calls for a minimum annual purchase of 48 F-35As and 24 F-15EXs, with a preferred target of 72 F-35As and 36 F-15EXs.
The 123rd Fighter Squadron was the first operational unit to receive the F-15EX. The first prototype for the unit is expected to arrive at Portland Air National Guard Base on June 5, 2024. Oregon Air National Guard
After the letter is signed by Air National Guard leaders, these totals are expected to represent units from the active, guard, and reserve components.
By comparison, the Air Force requested funding for 48 F-35As in fiscal year 2024, followed by 42 in 2025, 24 in 2026 and 38 in the proposed 2027 budget.
The fiscal year 2027 budget request also includes funding for the purchase of 10 F-35Bs and 37 F-35Cs for the Marine Corps and Navy, a significant increase in already planned acquisitions. At the same time, the F-35 program has faced worrying delays in work on a new radar, as well as a host of other critical upgrades.
The F-35A receives fuel from a KC-135 Stratotanker assigned to the 115th Fighter Wing, Truax Field, Madison, Wisconsin, 128th Air Refueling Wing in Milwaukee. Photo by U.S. Air National Guard Staff Sgt. Cameron Lewis Staff Sergeant Cameron Lewis
For the F-15EX, budget documents show the service has requested 24 aircraft in 2024, 18 in 2025, 21 in 2026, and 24 in 2027.
Continued annual procurement of even 24 F-15EXs would represent an acceleration of current production plans for the Eagle II, after the fiscal year 2026 budget request increased the program of record from 98 to 129 aircraft, with funding for 21 jets a year. In its latest budget request, the Air Force did not provide any details on whether there might be any new changes to the total fleet size planned for the F-15EX.
Brigadier Dr. is one of the signatories of the letter. said Gen. Shannon Smith, head of the Idaho Air National Guard Air and Space Force Magazine That, “we are burning these jets and airmen over time to support the joint force to meet the president’s goals with epic fury in this conflict with Iran.”
US Air Force Brig. General Shannon d. Smith, pictured in 2024 while he was the District Commander of the Columbia Air National Guard. Photo by U.S. Air National Guard Staff Sgt. Diara Jackson 113th Wing DC Air National Gua
On top of the demands of combat operations, Brig. General Smith warned that the Air National Guard fighter fleet is rapidly aging, meaning “most of the money will go into keeping them flying. In a few years, they will struggle to be airworthy, let alone relevant.”
While plans are underway to replace the A-10s and F-15Cs, the older F-35As will also need replacement before too long, Smith added. The much needed F-16s need to be removed in greater numbers.
A row of A-10Cs from the 127th Wing, Michigan Air National Guard, under their wing at Selfridge Air National Guard Base in Michigan. Photo by Terry L. Atwell/US Air Force
In total, the Air National Guard has 24 fighter squadrons, 11 of which have already received or are planning to receive new fighters. While some Guard F-16 units have transitioned to the F-35, there are no plans for the Guard’s remaining 13 Viper squadrons. Taken together, the Guard’s inventory constitutes close to half of all combat-coded F-16s.
In the past, a new light fighter was given to balance the more expensive and capable F-35 and now, the F-47, although it would be extremely expensive and take years. Another option is to start buying new F-16 Block 70/72 jets, although the production line is already burdened by several export orders.
If Congress supports the Air National Guard chief’s recommendations and the budget is available, getting the new jets on the ramps won’t be easy.
Besides increasing capabilities and ‘combat mass’, the new fighters bring other advantages in terms of lower maintenance demands, easier access to spare parts, longer airframe life, and overall higher availability.
F-16C fighter assigned to the 162nd Wing of the Arizona Air National Guard. Air National Guard
The issue of spare parts is serious. Back in 2024, we saw that, according to the Air Force’s own estimates, due to a $1.5-billion shortfall in its budget request, hundreds of its planes were at risk of being grounded for lack of spares.
However, meeting the target of 72 to 100 new fighters each year will demand a significant increase in production capacity, which is already stretched. With that in mind, the Air National Guard predicts it could take another 10 to 15 years to re-equip units currently flying older fighters.
One option for re-equipping Guard and Reserve units is to cascade fighters down from the active component, but Air National Guard chiefs warn against that, too, because it only pushes recapitalization with new fighters into line.
It’s unclear how the Air Force’s plans for the F-47 sixth-generation fighter might play into that.
A rendering of the F-47 developed under the Next Generation Air Dominance (NGAD) program. US Air Force graphic Air Force Public Secretary
In 2023, then-Secretary of the Air Force Frank Kendall said the service was working around building a future force plan that included 200 of the sixth-gen fighter jets.
At this point, however, there are still questions about how the F-47 will fit into the Air Force’s future force structure and how many jets the service can actually buy. The jet was originally planned as a replacement for the F-22, but that appears to have changed, or at least is in limbo. It is by no means clear how long the F-22 will last after the F-47 is introduced, but if the F-47 is delayed, it could come to the end of the F-22’s service life. If the Air Force wants to operate the two at the same time, at least for the early part of the F-47’s career, but delays fielding, it could also open another gap in combat mass.
Another factor is the service’s emerging plans to field future fleets of companion combat aircraft (CCA) drones, designed from the ground up to work in close concert with current and future crewed jets. In the past, the Air Force has indicated it wants to buy more than 1,000 CCAs. However, this number is understood to cover several CCA increments, increments 1 being purchased in numbers between 100 and 150 units, at least to begin with.
Three examples of the YFQ-42A Dark Merlin, developed to meet the Increment 1 CCA requirement. A common atom
Ultimately, the CCA effort aims to drastically improve the strategic jet fleet combat mass, which can offset declining fighter strength, and active-duty F-35 and F-22 units will get them first. After that, they could soon be rolled out on fourth-generation jets as well. On the other hand, the CCA concept still has much to prove and is not without risks.
Against the background of all this are concerns within the US military leadership about significant advances being made by the Chinese military and, in this context, its air weapons. The People’s Liberation Army Air Force is rapidly expanding and modernizing on a scale that threatens to surpass the United States in both numbers and capabilities. Warning signs of a major fighter expansion include an apparent new J-35 factory and several Chinese CCA programs.
A bottom view of the new generation Chinese J-36 fighter jet. Chinese internet via X
As long as the US government continues to purchase aircraft at a relatively slow rate, China has the opportunity to run ahead and is already producing large quantities of advanced fighters, creating a growing imbalance in the Indo-Pacific region.
Obviously, there are many factors at play, not the least of which is budget. However, in making their case to Congress, Air National Guard bosses are again stressing the continued demand for crewed fighter jets within the service, and at the same time, highlighting some of the challenges to keeping the fighter force at the top of its game.
Contact the author: thomas@thewarzone.com
