More than 100 years later, is 2026 the year Tampa gets a direct hit from the Hurricanes? How does Miami feel 34 years after the Andrew hit? Or could it be southern New England’s turn for the first time in decades?
While none of these questions can be answered now, experts say these three locations are among the most “overdue” places in the country for a direct hit from a hurricane.
AccuWeather forecasts have highlighted an unusual “storm gap” in those three locations, and research by Michael Ferragamo, an independent hurricane researcher and soon-to-be graduate of the University of Oklahoma, shows that those locations haven’t had an unusually long period of storms.
“In all of these areas, the population has increased significantly since the last major impacts,” AccuWeather hurricane expert Alex DaSilva told USA Today. “Many residents have never experienced a hurricane and may not be familiar with evacuation zones or proper preparation, which increases the risk.”
Why are these places so vulnerable?
In Florida, both Tampa and Miami are “very weak,” DaSilva said. “Both are low-lying and at high risk of storm surge flooding, and both have seen rapid development in recent decades. Tampa was very fortunate when Hurricane Milton moved south. If that track had moved slightly north, the effects could have been catastrophic.”
To the northeast, areas from New York City to Providence, Rhode Island are also highly susceptible to tornadoes.
A road littered with debris from Hurricane Milton in Siesta Key, Florida on October 10, 2024. Although Tampa suffered some damage from Milton, the city was spared a direct hit.
Tampa: ‘Very, very lucky’
Florida’s second-most populous metro area (behind Miami) has not suffered a direct hit since 1921, when an unidentified tornado hit the city, killing eight people and leaving $10 million (equivalent to $170 million to $185 million today) in damage.
Hurricane Milton in 2024 was a very close call for Tampa. However, “Tampa’s remarkable streak of avoiding direct hits from major hurricanes continued with Milton,” DaSilva said.
While Milton bore the brunt, the worst of the storm—and the storm—missed the city. DaSilva said there is no geographic or topographical reason — or even weather — for Tampa’s long streak. “They are very lucky,” he said.
“The typical ‘return interval’ there is about 10 years, so depending on how you classify Milton, Tampa could be considered a period for a more direct and severe hit.” (The return interval, or return period, is the average time between storms at a given location, based on historical data—not a schedule or prediction.)
Colorado State University hurricane researcher Phil Klotzbach agreed with DaSilva: “Tampa is another good example of a city that has had several close calls but no direct landfalls in recent years,” citing Hurricanes Charley (2004), Irma (2017), and Idalia (2023).
A satellite image shows Hurricane Andrew with sustained winds of 165 mph over South Florida on August 24, 1992.
Miami: ‘Really Quiet’
“Miami and the entire east coast of Florida have been pretty quiet since 2004,” Klotzbach said. “Nicole was the only hurricane to hit Florida’s east coast since Jeanne in 2004. In 2022, of course, Miami had a lot to fear from Irma in 2017,” he said.
DaSilva said “Miami is one of the most periodic areas. The average return interval for a hurricane there is about every 6 to 8 years, although it has had a direct hit since 2005. That puts South Florida outside of its historical frequency.”
Hurricane Andrew of 1992 remained South Florida’s worst storm on record in terms of structures damaged or destroyed, and remained the costliest in monetary terms until Hurricane Irma topped it 25 years later.
Ferragamo also said that Florida’s east coast has had very few hurricanes recently, “which is a stark contrast to the seven hurricanes that hit between 1945 and 1950!”
On August 19, 1991, Hurricane Bob hit Mass. hard.
Southern New England: ‘It’s going to be devastating’
Southern New England, including Providence, also has a significant period, DaSilva said. “The normal return interval is about 17 to 20 years, but the last direct hurricane landfall there was Hurricane Bob in 1991. That’s more than three decades ago.”
“I can attest that it’s been a long time since a major hurricane impacted that area,” said Klotzbach, a former resident of Massachusetts.
While Bob brought devastation, the amount and severity of death and destruction from the 1938 hurricane remains largely unmatched in New England.
The 1938 hurricane killed 682 people and hit as a Category 3 with winds of 115 to 120 mph. Additionally, it moved at about 50 mph, leaving little warning and producing destructive winds and winds in Connecticut, Rhode Island, and Massachusetts.
DaSilva said that “Last summer, our team highlighted how hurricanes are yet to hit the Northeast and ran a scenario. If the Great New England Hurricane of 1938 hit the same region now with the same storm surge, flooding and wind impacts, AccuWeather experts estimate the total damage and economic losses would be $440 billion.”
Most recently, the last landfalling hurricane was Bob in 1991, Ferragamo said. “Since then, the kids have grown up and are in their 20s and 30s in this area, and still haven’t experienced a hurricane strike.”
“My biggest concern for New England comes in the form of major hurricanes — once-in-a-lifetime monsters like Carol in 1938 or 1954. Residents have no idea how bad a hurricane can be in this area, and when another one hits, it will be devastating, even if it’s a Category 2.”
What are the worst cities and places for hurricanes in the US?
A map shows the hurricane “return period” of the coastal United States. The return period is the average time between storms at a given location, based on historical data – not a schedule or forecast.
The map (above) shows the hurricane “return period” for the entire coastal United States. The return period, also known as the “return interval”, is the time between storms at a specific location. This is based on historical data, and is not a schedule or prediction.
The more frequent the return period (red on the map), the more often hurricanes historically hit that area.
The map was for Ferragamo’s capstone project during his final semester at the University of Oklahoma. “For the return period map, I applied a 30-mile radius around the counties (to account for the average diameter of the hurricane-force winds).”
Doyle Rice is a national correspondent for USA TODAY, focusing on weather and climate.
This article originally appeared on USA TODAY: Worst cities for hurricanes? Map shows risk; In some places ‘hospitality’
